2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders is about to start winning
Geography is one thing thats suddenly tipping in Mr. Sanderss favor. Mrs. Clinton has dominated in the Deep South and Appalachian border states due to their preponderance of African-American Democratic voters. But now the partys presidential struggles are moving west. Of the next eight contests, only one is in a state east of the Mississippi.
And that one is Wisconsin, which holds a primary on April 5. With a long history of liberalism and an electorate thats 82 percent white, the Badger State could well be Bernie Country. Right now (sketchy) state polls show Sanders slightly ahead.
Voting methods are also changing to favor Sanders. Six of the next 8 Democratic contests are caucuses, not primaries. Caucuses reward fervor youve got to hang around while people make speeches and organize. You cant just vote and leave. And fervor is something Sanders supporters appear to have in abundance. Just disagree with them on Twitter youll see.
http://news.yahoo.com/bernie-sanders-start-winning-matter-160106394.html;_ylt=A0LEVwtZP.xWmo4AP1XBGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTEyZ2VicG5pBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjE4ODBfMQRzZWMDc2M-
LongTomH
(8,636 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)for him to get out.
His momentum is about to return.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Hillary won FL in the primaries. She'll win it in the general.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Republicans got nearly 2.3 million votes total to the Democrats' 1.7 million.
Take into consideration that 33 percent of Bernie's voters say they won't vote for Hillary and that 1.7 million number drops.
She won't win Florida.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Sorry if Bernie's 'revolution' fizzled.
Sorry if you'd rather see Trump win (and really, you do. You'd like nothing more than to spite Hillary and the Democratic party for denying Bernie the Socialist's triumph.)
Sorry you have a sad.
No, actually, I'm not. I don't really give a rat's ass.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)What's fizzled is Democratic turnout thanks to Debbie Wasserman-Shultz. I'd rather see neither Hillary, the Criminal, nor Trump, the Blowhard. I'd rather see honesty and integrity and since the primary isn't over, I'm not throwing in any towel.
But you really didn't answer how she was going to overcome that Independent deficit given Indies don't really like your Queen.
?1442490338
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article44496063.html
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/9/17/1422117/-Poll-of-Independents-Sanders-45-Trump-26-HRC-9
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf
[link:http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/26/trump-vs-clinton-the-election-no-one-wants-commentary.html|
Trump vs. Clinton: The election no one wants]
Seems you'll be having the sad. I already live in a red state.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Latinos make up almost 25 percent of the state's population.
Also 25 percent of the population is over 65.
These are very good demographics for Hillary.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Response to peacebird (Original post)
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peacebird
(14,195 posts)Welcome aboard!
Response to peacebird (Reply #8)
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JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)cwydro
(51,308 posts)a mostly male electorate as well.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)cwydro
(51,308 posts)But shame on you!
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Response to Surya Gayatri (Reply #38)
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Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)weigh more heavily than everybody else's and should sway the supers in his favor. Youth TRUMPS all.
Tasteless, you say? Calling Hillary a demented, cheating RW corporatist, now there's tasteless for ya.
Nauseating, you say? Feel free to vomit at will. A healthy purge is good for the soul.
Response to Surya Gayatri (Reply #48)
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Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Some reflections on "REVOLUUUTIONNNN" from those RW shills (sarc.), the Beatles.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511361551
You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don't you know that you can count me out
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We'd all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We're doing what we can
But when you want money
for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
Ah
ah, ah, ah, ah, ah...
You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You better free your mind instead
But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
all right, all right, all right
all right, all right, all right
Response to Surya Gayatri (Reply #52)
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Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,340 posts)On Fri Mar 18, 2016, 04:18 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
But, surely the brotherhood will be enough to carry him across the finish line, no?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1525565
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
ALERTER'S COMMENTS
This is a shameless display of agism, in caricaturing Bernie Sanders' age.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Fri Mar 18, 2016, 04:36 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Can we stop this snide catcalling?
It won't make a difference since Skinner opened the floodgates to the suspended.
Carry on with the insults.
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Please.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's a good photo. Yes, a bit ageist. I think Bernie would be helping those others cross the line. Neither BXS nor HDRC is exactly a youngster.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: There are effective ways to engage in a debate about Bernie Sanders that do not require mocking his age. This is not necessary and rude and insensitive.
Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)On Fri Mar 18, 2016, 04:18 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
But, surely the brotherhood will be enough to carry him across the finish line, no?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1525565
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
ALERTER'S COMMENTS
This is a shameless display of agism, in caricaturing Bernie Sanders' age.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Fri Mar 18, 2016, 04:36 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Can we stop this snide catcalling?
It won't make a difference since Skinner opened the floodgates to the suspended.
Carry on with the insults.
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Please.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's a good photo. Yes, a bit ageist. I think Bernie would be helping those others cross the line. Neither BXS nor HDRC is exactly a youngster.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: There are effective ways to engage in a debate about Bernie Sanders that do not require mocking his age. This is not necessary and rude and insensitive.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)I got a chuckle out of it.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)many people 10 -20 years younger. Your OP is just mean spirited.
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)tens of thousands (at least) of people of color who have already voted for him, and the hundreds of thousands or millions who will have voted for him by the end of this whole thing.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)seeing as how a huge percentage of the population cannot or will not vote.
I reiterate what I said above to JaneyVee. Dismissing the existence of hundreds of thousands of voters of color who support Bernie with blanket statements like that is no better than whatever racist thing some Bernie supporter did or didn't do.
All I know is that I am so grateful that the people I talk to about politics in the real world do not communicate like most people here do. It's so dangerously divisive. And just sad, frankly.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)Felons in some states
People in states with Voter ID laws which are deliberate attempts to disenfranchise people (and primarily effect the poor, elderly people, young people, and disproportionately people of color)
People with shitty jobs/multiple jobs who, despite the law, cannot afford to miss work in order to vote or they may risk their livelihoods
People with transportation issues who aren't tapped into a network of those who are willing to help get them to the polls
People in many US territories - US citizens, some of who can participate in primaries but not the general, oddly enough, tens of thousands of whom are veterans of the US military
In general, in all of these categories, poor people and minorities are overrepresented, and they are people who are more likely to vote for Dems in general elections. I'm surprised you don't seem to be aware of these categories of people. Voter ID laws have been very controversial in recent years, for example, undoing the progress made by the Voting Rights Act decades ago for which people fought and died.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)... they'd vote for Bernie?
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)That's not my contention at all. If it was, I would have said so.
Just read my words, they speak for themselves. Primary season is a fucking nightmare on this website. I'm not taking any of this bait.
synergie
(1,901 posts)have already voted for her, but must be dismissed because of the Confederacy or whatever. How do these plans to harass and convince PLEDGED delegates to ignore the will of the voters to deliver votes to Bernie when he ddn't earn them?
It's kinda weird how you're ignoring the numerous posts that abused and dismissed the entire South, any red state and the black vote, all over this site, twitter and other parts of the internet, and even by Bernie himself.
Do you wonder why you don't criticize the dismissal of the millions who voted for her?
uponit7771
(90,336 posts)Odin2005
(53,521 posts)LexVegas
(6,060 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)Tends to get a tad cocky and lazy when the second half team comes out after half time
hack89
(39,171 posts)margin of victory and the resulting net gain (or loss) in delegates is all that matters now. Unless he starts winning big states with blow out margins, he is not going to overtake Hillary.
uponit7771
(90,336 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)But if that is NOT what you meant, get back to me about uniting *after* California votes. Then we can talk.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Closing a lead that big would be extremely difficult. All the Democratic votes are proportional, meaning even the loser gets a proportion of the delegates awarded. Thus to catch up to Clinton, Sanders needs blowout wins, not just victories. He needs to take home between 58 and 60 percent of the delegates awarded between now and the end of primary season.
Could that happen? Yes. Yale could also continue to blow through March Madness to an NCAA basketball crown. Then it could win the NBA for good measure. Its not against the laws of physics. Just those of probability.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bernie-sanders-start-winning-matter-160106394.html
AzDar
(14,023 posts)dr60omg
(283 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Squinch
(50,949 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)and the caucus next Saturday.
My goal is to turn people against the establishment candidate..
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)And look forward to casting my vote next Saturday for Bernie!
brooklynite
(94,544 posts)...and moved to the midwest?
ljm2002
(10,751 posts)...is the ability to convince Democratic voters that he can actually win.
After the 3/15 votes, the other side has a lot of ammunition to say see, he really can't win and you should all get behind the one candidate who can win, or risk a Trump presidency.
Yes, those of us who follow polls know that Bernie does better against Trump, according to almost all of the head-to-head match-up polling we have seen. But most voters don't follow things that closely, and the results on 3/15 were all Hillary wins. I don't like it, but there it is. I just talked to some friends who live in California, even before 3/15, and they basically were already saying "But he can't win" -- they did not understand the difference between pledged and unpledged delegates, and they were buying the spin based on total delegate counts. Now they will probably buy that spin even more.
It always was an uphill battle, but now it is even more so. Bernie really needs some big wins in the upcoming states; without that, he won't see the kinds of wins he needs in the biggest states.
Well however it goes from here, I'm with Bernie, all the way to the convention.
Go, Bernie!!!!!
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)our candidates. If Bernie were to win the primary I would absolutely support him, as the only means to preventing a repub from getting the presidency. I hope that you and all the other Bernie supporters would do the same if the situation is reversed.
Response to peacebird (Original post)
Post removed
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)But I guess red states Bernie wins count and red states Clinton wins don't, right?
I call this phenomenon The Bernie Sanders Double Standard.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Y'know, out in the real world, say your co-workers or your neighbors or whoever it is you may have a disagreement with one day, you don't get to slip the blinders on and pretend they don't exist.
Judging by the many, many threads about it in the Bernie group, you lot are pretty quick to make use of Ignore.
Engage, stop running away from things you don't like.
lmbradford
(517 posts)This thread greatly helped me expand my ignore list.
Feel the Bern!!!
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Remember the math that you're dealing with; Sander would have to win every primary and caucus left on the calendar at a 60%-40% clip. Every state that he does not just increases the % needed in the rest.
It's really not going to happen, not with California, NY, Pennsylvania, Maryland, etc...coming up.