2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPolls: Trump Clobbered by Hillary Among Women, Nonwhites, Millennials
It's time for another installment of "why Trump is likely to be a general election disaster for Republicans based on the available data." We've already examined the controversial billionaire's uniquely terrible standing on electoral fundamentals like favorability and candidate characteristics, as well as his worst-in-the-GOP-field pairing against Hillary Clinton. Now let's look at his performance among key swing demographics, starting with women, who comprise more than half of the electorate:
These voters are part of what you might call Clintons coalition of the unwilling. They are the independent and moderate Republican women who dont like Clinton some even despise her but are so repulsed by Trump that they are already preparing to vote for the Democrat they anticipate will be on the ballot in November if thats what it takes to keep him out of office. Either that, or sit out the election altogether. This loose coalition is large and growing. More Republican women view Trump more negatively than positively, according to Gallup. And in a hypothetical matchup with Clinton, a Washington Post/ABC News poll found this month that Trump loses the womens vote by 21 points.
Opposition to Trump nearly unites the rising generation. In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she'd be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%. ...Nearly one in four Republicans would defect to the Democrats if the GOP nominated Trump against Clinton. Just 7% of Democrats would defect to the GOP.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/03/18/polls-trump-gets-clobbered-by-hillary-among-swing-groups-n2135769
*I'm well aware of what townhall is. It's been used as a "source" for a few anti-Clinton posts.*
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)Democratic Party?
We have down ticket races and the future of the party to think of.
With Clinton's high negatives, how does she expand the party?
Happenstance24
(193 posts)Does Bernie? He can't even get the party to vote for him. He's lost the Dem vote in every state but his own. How many AA stay home if Bernie is the nominee? See I can create paranoia too.
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)Carlo Marx
(98 posts)Independents outnumber Democrats. While Republicans do more than their fair share of dragging Congress's approval ratings below cockroaches, Democrats appear quite comfortable residing in the same cesspool and only develop a fighting spirit when confronted by the left.
LexVegas
(6,060 posts)AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)Gothmog
(145,231 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Interesting that Bernie Sanders isn't even a blip on their radar.
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)If he doesn't reach the delegate count, they don't have to. Nationally she loses to the others quite handily. Nominating her is a gamble whether anyone likes it or not.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)TCJ70
(4,387 posts)...there is no guarantee that Trump will be the Republican nominee. For all the talk about electability I would have thought some consideration would have been given to how she fares against other Republican candidates as well. My mistake!
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Of everyone running for POTUS, Clinton is the most likely to win. If the Republicans refuse to nominate Trump, I could see him running as an independent, which would split the vote with whomever the Republicans do nominate. But, even if that doesn't happen, the electoral college map favors the Democratic nominee.
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)...and when I see results like this it just makes me wonder how viable she is at the end of the day. To be clear, Trump is not going to win...but that's the only sure thing out there this time around. I also don't think he'd run as an independent. I doubt he's that invested and he's also probably smart enough (man that's tough to type out) to know he'd never win.
EDIT: Thank you for actually responding to me, though. Unlike the OP.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...as hypothetical match-up polling done during the primary season is, it's best to not go with it at all.
The same goes for turnout comparisons. Primary Turnout Means Nothing for the General Election
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)*Anyone but Clinton.
You'd think she were the one that were losing and not the other way around.
I just recently threw my support behind her and I couldn't be happier with her as our potential nominee.
.
jfern
(5,204 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Hypothetical GE polls are meaningless at this point. imo