2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNewYork** Dem poll shows Clinton 71% with a wide lead over Sanders-only 23%
ECPS @EmersonPolling Mar 17
ECPS #NewYork Dem poll shows @HillaryClinton with a wide lead over @BernieSanders.
http://www.theecps.com/
LauraRoose @LauraRoose 15h15 hours ago
@anamariecox From Homeward Trails animal rescue, his name was Zack. Five years later, this Bernie says #ImWithHer.
Progressive Man and 72 others follow
Cornelia @PaladinCornelia 1h1 hour ago
#ImWithHer for #WAcaucus
She's not perfect (none of us are) but she's wise, experienced and has a good heart.
Mr. Weeks @MrDane1982 15h15 hours ago Bronx, NY
President Obama and Secretary Clinton #ImWithHer #ImWithThem
msongs
(67,462 posts)itsrobert
(14,157 posts)Looks like Brooklyn has changed since he left.
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)lewebley3
(3,412 posts)riversedge
(70,350 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)SMC22307
(8,090 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)quiller4
(2,467 posts)A landline only poll in Washington state or Minnesota would be foolish where only 60 percent of households have landlines but New York is one of 2 states where 90 of households still have landlines. New Jersey is the other.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I think this was a landline-only poll and many people have cell phones only now.
However, those numbers look excellent and I am cautiously optimistic that the good people of New York will vote for their former senator!
KPN
(15,665 posts)Hey New Yorkers! Not to worry. Hillary's got this hands down. It's a shoe in! If you can't make it to the poll, no biggie!
LonePirate
(13,431 posts)NY is a closed primary state - a state which twice elected Hillary to the Senate. Chances are she will win NY by a few, if not several, points.
Walk away
(9,494 posts)You have to register a month before the primary and you have to be a Democrat.
global1
(25,285 posts)and then when the results are in Bernie closes that gap within low single digit percentage points, ties or wins?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)riversedge
(70,350 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)NY is closed. He needs to win Democrats.. which he has not yet proven he is capable of doing.
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)The pollsters didn't know how to model it because the last competitive primary in Michigan was in 1992.
In 2008 Obama and Edwards declined to file after the DNC stripped Michigan of all of its delegates for moving its primary before New Hampshire.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Get out now and save face Bernie!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Maybe not... Which Rocky movie did Paulie say "I'm glad it's you not me, out threre" ?
oasis
(49,429 posts)They hope to keep those $27 homing pigeons gainfully employed.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)KPN
(15,665 posts)but there won't be any last dollars. Berners aren't going away -- ever!
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)oasis
(49,429 posts)Gothmog
(145,667 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Let's be generous and say that Bernie cuts that polling margin by 2/3 by the primary - so that Hillary "only" wins by 16 points.
A 16 point victory for Hillary in NY nets her a gain of about 40 delegates, which is more than Bernie is expected to pick up if he wins Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington combined (according to the 538 delegate tracker here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/ )
Bernie hasn't won a single state where he gained more than 20 delegates on Hillary. His biggest was the 16-0 shutout in VT.
Sid