2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere’s How Bernie Sanders Could Win the Nomination
by Nate Cohn
The New York Times, MARCH 17, 2016
The worst is over for Bernie Sanders. The primaries in the South are finished, and now the Democratic contest heads north to bluer and, for the most part, whiter states.
Mr. Sanders should fare better over the second half of the primary season, after black voters gave Hillary Clinton such a big advantage in the first half. But the path to a majority of delegates is nonetheless a daunting one. He would need to win the remaining delegates by around a 58-42 percent margin after falling behind again in the delegate count Tuesday night.
A Sanders Hot Streak
It might be very hard for Mr. Sanders to win the remaining states by such a margin though it might not seem that way at first.
SNIP...
Mr. Sanders is clearly favored to exceed his target the roughly 16-point, 58-to-42 percent margin of victory in six of the eight contests over the next month. Hes a strong favorite in the caucuses in Idaho, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming. Barack Obama won an average of 72 percent of the vote in these contests in 2008, and so far Mr. Sanders is running an average of four points behind Mr. Obamas showing in caucus states. Mr. Sanders is also a strong favorite in the Utah primary.
Combined, these six states hold 216 delegates. Mr. Sanders might hope to win them by a 2-to-1 margin perhaps narrowing Mrs. Clintons lead by 65 to 70 delegates.
In the middle of all of that will be two states that could be slightly more competitive: Wisconsin and Arizona.
CONTINUED...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/17/upshot/heres-how-bernie-sanders-could-win-the-nomination.html?ribbon-ad-idx=5&rref=upshot
Nate Cohn ends the piece "more realistically," that the odds are against Bernie, based on where he has and hasn't polled well. Who knows?
All I know is I have not given up. Most of those I know have not given up. And until the convention in Philadelphia happens, my horse is Bernie Sanders.
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)You've already seen a couple of these scenarios.
k8conant
(3,030 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)After all, he's raised a ton of money and it's any means necessary when it comes to defeating Wall Street. REVOLUTION!!!!!!!
LexVegas
(6,060 posts)21st Century Poet
(254 posts)Just as Mrs Clinton hung her hat in the less progressive ones.
LexVegas
(6,060 posts)21st Century Poet
(254 posts)New York is Mrs Clinton's home state. Not sure she will do as well as Mr Sanders did in his home state. She has an advantage but some politicians do lose their home state.
LexVegas
(6,060 posts)21st Century Poet
(254 posts)Then again, he might not. It depends on who people vote for. That's how democracy works.
LexVegas
(6,060 posts)21st Century Poet
(254 posts)There is a possibility (a small one but it is technically a possibility) that Mr Sanders will win each and every state that will vote from today onwards and then go on to win the presidency. It depends on who the people vote for. I trust that you understand this simple concept.
LexVegas
(6,060 posts)21st Century Poet
(254 posts)Why is race more important than political ideas for you? Are you saying that Mrs Clinton won the states she did due to being certain race(s)' choice and not because of her political ideas? You do realise that you are painting yourself into a corner, right?
grasswire
(50,130 posts)brooklynite
(94,553 posts)You really do learn something every day here...
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)It works both ways you know.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)My state certainly is NOT her home state. She came here because ---visibility, she could easily win a Senate seat - no competition, and to continue to set the stage for a presidential run. Her entire life, as far as I can see, has been about being president, president, president.....
Clinton is a carpetbagger.
As far as I am concerned, she can go back to from whence she came.
And as a preemptive strike against whomever.. NO Bernie Sanders is NOT a carpetbagger.
comradebillyboy
(10,147 posts)and Arizona are more progressive states?
k8conant
(3,030 posts)griffi94
(3,733 posts)And Florida and North Carolina are much less progressive than Idaho and Utah.
So are MA, OH, IL.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Not like the liberal bastion of Oklahoma.
Or perhaps we can realize that there are good progressives and liberals fighting for progressive and liberal ideas even in states under deep Republican control, and they deserve to have just as much of a voice as traditional liberal enclaves.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)comradebillyboy
(10,147 posts)money to keep going. I presume he will contest all remaining primaries and caucuses. I don't see any possibility of him getting enough delegates to win. It will keep a bit of media attention on the Democrats til the convention.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)They frame it as acknowledging the result, but really they are trying to shape the result and discourage dissent.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)NobodyHere
(2,810 posts)Bernie isn't winning.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)and 40% Hillary. I was one of the Bernie delegates from the caucus and will be a alternate delegate at the next level.
One of the main things we stressed is that we do not want any deals made. We want our 60% MN delegates to continue intact until the Convention in Philly. We are not giving up. We see no reason to compromise during the Primary.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Duppers
(28,120 posts)jwirr
(39,215 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)I think it's time for some reality to set in here.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)He just has to win 58% of the delegates between now and the end of June.
It's that he has to win every state. I ran a simulation using the tools some people posted on DU, where I had him losing New York by a small margin but still able to hit 2026 delegates.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I keep asking for people who think Sanders can still win to post such a simulation. But not a single person has, as far as I can tell.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Anyways you need it to easily see it's false that he must win "every state". He's obviously going to lose in some of them. Also Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June. Hillary noted that when explaining why she wouldn't concede when she was running against Obama in 2008. Meaning that life is unpredictable. Anything can happen.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)That's not the one I used. But it was similar.
But now that you have it you can go ahead and run your own simulations and see for yourself. Have fun!
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Every time I ask for one, I get responses like "anything can happen."
Tarc
(10,476 posts)60%-40% in all of the remaining states will put Sanders around 90 delegates ahead of Clinton. We all know that will not happen; as soon as you put some realistic numbers in there...Kentucky 35%, Washington DC 30%, Arizona 45%, California and NY 45% each (and that's being extraordinarily generous), then he sinks way back down.
It's time for Camp Sanders to start being realistic here.