2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama opens up six point lead over Romney in...Virginia.
From Rasmussen:
Obama leads Romney 49-43 in Virginia, his largest lead in that state this year.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_presidential_election
Skinner
(63,645 posts)JaneQPublic
(7,113 posts)Even women with zero chance of ever needing an abortion take issue with the GOP's "Trans-Virginia" Sonogram probe bill.
catbyte
(34,123 posts)It's not looking too good for the GOP in state polls.
Let's hope this trend continues.
Diane
Anishinaabe in MI & mom to Sophie, Leo, Taz & Nigel, proud members of Dogs Against Romney, Cat Division
"We Ride Inside--Hiss!"
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)But I still hate polls, even when the news is good I still hate them.
HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)as in the surburbs of DC as opposed to the Southern Bible Belt areas? The few times I have been in Va. that was my impression.
Northern Virginia-Urban, Suburban, rich, upper-class, middle-class, younger, educated
Southern Virginia-Rural, less educated, poorer, more religious, older, culturally more southern
The reason why Obama is competitive in the state is because Northern Virginia is growing at a faster rate. And as the population becomes more secular, urban and educated, they are more likely to support Democrats.
This demographic shift is also taking place in North Carolina. That's why the state is competitive.
DippyDem
(658 posts)HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)Even people from the North who moved to Florida and later became "half-backs" to NC. Traveling through the states, Southern Va. felt more like SC than NC. Georgia felt more like NC than SC. Hell, even parts of Florida feels more like SC than Georgia or NC did. Maybe it has to do with how rural a place is? The more cosmopolitan cities a southern state has the less southern, conservative, Republican, Bible Belt influence there will be? More transplants from up North bringing their progressive views with them?
That was just my impression doing our treks north to NY from Florida.
Dr_Scholl
(212 posts)I live in Virginia Beach and although we're not as wealthy as Northern Virginia, we're still doing pretty well.
But I agree Northern Virginia is practically a seperate state. Culturally, it's an extension of the Northeast.
virgdem
(2,116 posts)or howdy as they would say down here in the sticks of Virginia Beach. I think this area would be somewhat more democratic were it not for the military retirees, who are overwhelmingly
Republican. I know that I really can't discuss politics with most friends/acquaintances as most are staunch republicans. It's so hard to meet a kindred spirit politically.
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)Yes, that's good news for single guys, but the important detail is that women vote Democratic.
FSogol
(45,312 posts)and humble of course.
The purplish nature of VA is not limited to Northern VA. The area around VA Beach and Newport News is becoming more like Northern VA demographically every year.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)He has even bigger lead against Santorum.Remember this Is Ras.
Also RAS Has Obama at 50 percent approval 49 percent disapprovol.While that Is basiclly a tie It Is still from a republican pollster
having an approvl not underwater.
This poll Is proof the Republicans antiwoman moves are a minus for them.
oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)this affects down ticket (Cantor)
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)pick Rubio and FL is lost.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)The days of a VP being able to flip a state are over.Picking Mcdonnell could help energize woman to vote for Obama.Romney won't pick
Rubio.His star has been tarnished.He was caught lying about when he family came to America.No way romney will pick someone else who has had a momon background.He has his own mormonism to deal with.Plus democrats can run ads tying Romney to their very unpopular governor.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)FSogol
(45,312 posts)still takes VA. McDonnell keeps putting his foot into it and along with the VA Republican House/Senate overreach, I think he's finished. VA will turn blue again in the next election.
JaneQPublic
(7,113 posts)...A win in VA is needed in only a couple, and a win in FL is needed in none of them.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)rights if nothing else. I agree with you, though. There are various avenues to victory.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)But the shift in Virginia is largely thanks to Republican filth trying to legislate themselves into women's reproductive organs this week.
I think this trend is merely the beginning of an enormous demographic shift, where a huge percentage of Virginia women are going to shift allegiance to the Democrats, or sit this one out.
If Romney is still stupid enough to pick McDonnell, that poison will spread across the nation (and probably also guarantee that Ron Paul will break off and go independent, which alone is enough to lose the whole thing for the GOP--I am intrigued by rumors that Romney may have already promised Paul that spot).
Thank you, Virginia women! There's a reason why our Commonwealth seal has one of you standing tall over the dead body of Tyrrany. And for those of you chained to a Republican husband, here's a little light reading from Aristophanes that might give you some ideas....
Jack Rabbit
(45,984 posts). . . then it's really 55-37 for Obama.
BigDemVoter
(4,149 posts)VA is a relatively conservative state-- maybe less so now than in the 1980's since their demographics have changed a bit. I'm pleased to see Obama doing so well there.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Santorum or Gingrich receives the nod for their party's nomination; wouldn't that be a fun race to watch?
sofa king
(10,857 posts)Virginia is a little strange in that "cities" are a separate political district from the counties in which they are located. For at least 300 years, Virginia has also regularly practiced the idea of trying to fit a center of higher education into each of those commerce centers.
That makes it much easier to see on an election results map that Virginia is sharply divided among education and population density lines. Here's a map I pulled from Dave Leip's Election Atlas years ago, edited to show how Virginia's Democrats usually have an advantage in every city, and every education center. (Leip's maps use blue as incumbent and red as challenger, which is why Dem districts are red in that map.)
The key to a Democratic Virginia is a drop-off in rural Virginian interest. I'd say the folks on the other side of the aisle in Richmond have just done an excellent job of killing off interest in this election for female Republicans. It is unlikely they will forget before November.
The problem is further complicated by the fact that at least two of the candidates still in the mix failed to get on the primary ballot at all, and Gingrich and Santorum quite likely have not bothered to build a robust political network in Virginia. Should one of them get the nomination, they won't have an on-the-ground campaign here.
We can also expect oil speculators to drive the price of fuel through the roof this summer, as they always do in election years when Democrats threaten to do well. While that works on a national scale, it works directly against them in Virginia, where the majority of Republicans are now much poorer than they were ten years ago, just as remote, and quite possibly unable or unwilling to dump five bucks' worth of diesel through the F-250 just to vote for a clown they dislike at least as much as they hate President Obama.
Democrats, on the other hand, live much closer to their polling places, if voter suppression efforts fail to keep them out.
And none of this considers the under-reported Great Republican Die-Off, where the life expectancy of white males in southern states has in some cases dropped below 50 years (probably exacerbated by distance from hospital facilities, which are all in Democratic areas because rednecks don't want to pay for hospitals), meaning that an alarming percentage of Republicans who voted for Bush are already dead. This is exacerbated by the fact that Virginia is a "right to work" state, so a great many of us have shitty health care benefits if we have it at all.
The GOP has done an excellent job of killing off its base here, quite literally.
Thrill
(19,178 posts)coming. President Obama's map may look like Reagan's.
This is before the campaign AGAINST Mittens has started
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)narrowly, but a win. There are at least 15 states that the GOP will win no matter who they nominate. States like Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and a few other southern states. Now Reagan won Mondale 49 states to 1 (plus DC). So not likely to be another 1984.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)There will never be a Democrat winning a reagan landslide of 49 states.An Obama landslide would be winning 55 percent of the
popular vote with all his 2008 states plus Arizona and Missouri.And slim chance of eather Montanna or Georgia.
If Unemplyment can go down to 7 percent with the Republicans war on woman then eection day can be good day for Democrats.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I'm not sure why people are so surprised. He's likely to win VA and North Carolina again. He'll drop Indiana, but pick up Missouri.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,201 posts)The moral of the story? Don't eff with women and their ability to make their own choices.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If Obama does good there the GOPer candidate is in serious trouble.
Raine1967
(11,589 posts)but in my travels around the state this month -- I haven't seen ANY Romney lawn signs or bumper stickers. I took a trip all the way to Charlottesville last Saturday -- We made stops in Harrisonburg, Roseland and Nellysford -- Not a Romney support sighting anywhere.
I know that Virginia tends to be a bit fickle-- but this is certainly VERY good news.
Even better if people coat-tail those votes on the Senate Race. I do NOT want George Macaque Allen to get back in office.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its Raspuken so its probably Kaine ahead.
phylny
(8,344 posts)Since I haven't seen any advertising, I'll believe these polls when people are paying attention. Honestly, I didn't even know Kaine was running, and I pay attention to this stuff.
bathroommonkey76
(3,827 posts)guess what I saw two days ago? I saw a Chevy truck sporting a Bush/Cheney 2012 bumper sticker! LOL
I haven't seen any Romney, Gingrich or Santorum bumper stickers. Around this time of the year I usually see the occasional Republican voters sporting their "pride" on the Tar Heel back roads. Not this year! Those voters are ashamed of their candidates.
My prediction:
Obama will win North Carolina by 10+ points.
Alexander
(15,318 posts)Obama won 52.63% of the vote in Virginia to McCain's 46.33%, roughly a 6-point margin of victory.
This implies that Obama is probably on track to win at least as big as he won in 2008.
Hopefully he helps carry Tim Kaine over the line in the Senate race.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)If Obama carrys Virginia kaine will win.I can't believe any Obama voters spliting there votes for Allen.I could Imagne a small group of
Romney voters spliting for Kaine.Now Kaine will vote for Reid as Majority Leader and vote for elements of the Obama agenda.Allen
would vote aginst Obama 100 percent of the time.
muntrv
(14,505 posts)waybig
(4 posts)a bit "outlier-ish" as of late. I wouldn't be surprised if he's fudging the demos to overstate Obama's approval in an attempt to engender complacency among Democrats.
Rasmussen polls are crap but its better than being behind by 6, bcuz Matthews would obsess over a poll showing Obama behind..
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)DebJ
(7,699 posts)defeatmckeon.com
(4 posts)The Koch Brothers can only influence the election so much. The American people are smarter than baseless attack ads.
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