Study: Gender is costing Hillary Clinton big among men

[Cali_Democrat]

By Dan Cassion

There has been little discussion of the impact of Hillary Clinton’s gender on her electoral prospects, but are American men really ready for a female President? Looking at the results of a new experiment, Dan Cassino finds that the threat to male identity embodied by Clinton is costing her as much as 24 points among men, and bringing her down by 8 points overall.

While most of the attention in the 2016 Presidential primary has been focused on the Republican race, there’s one strange finding on the Democratic side that bears exploring: self-identified socialist Bernie Sanders typically does better in national head-to-head match-ups than frontrunner Hillary Clinton. A new study shows why: many Americans just aren’t ready for a woman President.

One of the main reasons Clinton’s numbers are lower than they would be otherwise is gender role threat, which is costing her as much as 24 points among men in the likely match-up with likely Republican nominee Donald Trump in November. Volumes of research in sociology have shown how men respond to perceived threats to their masculinity: in the face of personal or societal threats to their masculine identity, some men become more likely to endorse anti-gay stances, pro-gun policies, or anti-abortion views.

For instance, men who feel that their gender role is threatened by a wife who earns more money than they do may become more likely to embrace religious justifications for male superiority, or play up their role as the protector of the household. In this case, gender role threat is leading to increased support for Donald Trump, and decreased support for Clinton among men.

In the study, a randomized experiment was embedded in an otherwise normal political survey of likely voters in New Jersey. Half of the respondents were asked about the distribution of income in their own households – whether they or their spouse earned more money – before being asked about their preference in the Presidential general election. The other half were only asked about the distribution of income in their household at the end of the survey. This question was designed to remind people of disruption to traditional gender roles, without explicitly mentioning Clinton or a female president, and simulate the sorts of subtle gender-based attacks that can be expected when Clinton is a general election candidate.

The effects of the gender role threat question are enormous. As Figure 1 shows, men who weren’t asked about spousal income until after being asked about the Presidential election preferred Clinton over Trump, 49 to 33. However, those who were reminded about the threat to gender roles embodied by Clinton preferred Trump over Clinton, 50 to 42. Concerns about gender role threat shifted men from preferring Clinton by 16 to preferring Trump by 8, a 24 point shift.

Read more: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2016/03/24/gender-is-costing-hillary-clinton-big-among-men/

[Scuba]

1. It's not her gender that's hurting her with some of us men ...

... it's that she's running on her gender, without any policy positions that appeal to us.









I know one woman here who is going to vote for Hillary simply because she wants a woman president, regardless of policy. Sad.

[Cali_Democrat]

2. More from the study:

The case that this is really about Clinton’s gender, rather than her party is made clearer by the fact that the same experiment has almost no effect on support for Sanders in the match-up with Trump. As Figure 2 shows, men who weren’t asked about spousal income preferred Sanders over Trump by 3 points; those who were preferred Sanders over Trump by 4 points.

[grossproffit]

5. Bull. Any woman candidate would face the same problem.

[Scuba]

9. So a guy who would support Elizabeth Warren but not Hillary is a woman-hater?

[Cali_Democrat]

12. That's what one can claim on an anonymous message board...

But scientific experiments like the one mentioned in the OP weed out the liars.

[kristopher]

41. I believe both positions distort the study findings

Subset A: men who reject Hillary because are threatened by a successful woman
Subset B: men who reject Hillary because they dislike her policy positions or doubt her integrity

The study measures subset A and seems valid - it measures what it purports to measure. The 24 point swing is a big deal and would seem to be baked into this and future election dynamics if a female candidate is fielded.

Subset B is not covered by the study. It is (IMO) a bigger problem for Hillary, but not a problem for future female candidates.

[grossproffit]

23. Any woman candidate could have a lot of support until she runs

Same problem.

Some would say: she doesn't smile enough, she's not pretty enough, I hate how she dresses. I hate her hair. Who does her makeup? etc, etc.

[progressoid]

20. Wrong.

There are a lot of women I have voted for over men. Hillary won't be one of those women.

Not because of her gender, but because of her policies.

[grossproffit]

24. See post #23

[progressoid]

28. Wrong again.

None of those issues matter to me.

Ironically, I know of two Hillary supporters who are voting for her ONLY because of her gender. After a lengthy discussion is which they both agreed they prefer Bernie's policies, they decided they would still vote for Hillary. Why? "Because we want a female president".

[grossproffit]

36. Who said anything about you?

[whathehell]

37. Not to you and some others, but it DOES matter to many men, as the study shows..

As to women who are voting for her because they "just because she's a woman", how many in the AA community do you

imagine voted for Obama because he was Black? I didn't hear an outcry on DU about that at the time.





P.S. I support Bernie and I'm female. That being said, the double standard here between gender and race is amazing.

[progressoid]

53. I agree.

While I try to vote on issues and not on gender or race, certainly there is a large block of Americans that do. And Democrats are no exception.

Honestly, there is one area where my bias does occasionally show up. Religion. If someone flaunts their religion, I tend to be suspicious. Even if I agree with their policies.

[mythology]

44. The plural of anecdote is not data

Nowhere does the study say that every man who wouldn't vote for Clinton is doing so out of fear of a female president.

[progressoid]

55. Right.

And as I said above, I try to vote on issues and not gender or race bias. But there is clearly is a group of Americans that do - including Democrats.

[DanTex]

3. Interesting.

[Smarmie Doofus]

4. Even more than Sanders' ethnicity/religious background is costing HIM?

I'll consider the data presented.

But instinct.... and recent visits to this site.... leads one to doubt it.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

14. We've already seen a black president - so yeah......

[Smarmie Doofus]

64. Obama isn't Jewish. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. "It takes a man to take a stand Understand it takes a woman to make a stronger man."

-Chuck D

[TheBlackAdder]

7. Gender plays a significant role in this election, but the study is shallow and myopic.

.


Rutgers Eagleton's Center for American Woman and Politics has much more information that defines the myriad of factors that play into a gendered election. This study only focuses on one small subset, leaving out the largest factor, religious indoctrination.

Evangelical resistance to women in power manifested itself during the ERA ratification process, when 45% of the women were against the ERA, with a vast majority of those swayed for their beliefs in a patriarchal system, one highly influenced by their religion.



Actually, let me add that I did not see the actual research, nor any peer-reviewed information, as none was provided. I'll wait for this to get vetted a bit more. Perhaps I'll check JSTOR later on in the week. The article also states, "Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics."


.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

17. How would you know unless you've seen the entire article? As a researcher, with several published

articles, one cannot know without seeing the entire article, the methods used, number of people in the study, etc., etc., etc.

[TheBlackAdder]

21. If you've read my post, you'd see where I said the peer-data wasn't provided! Now, back to reality!

Last edited Sat Mar 26, 2016, 01:46 PM - Edit history (1)

.


Reading is Fundamental.


Secondly, you cannot gather accurate information on a blind phone cal into households. The information required just to pre-certify that the respondent isn't lying is a subset of the MMPI-2 and takes over 20-25 minutes to administer! Most calls would not survive that level of subjectivity and verifiability.

Thirdly, there are dozens of reasons why people vote a certain way, and even if this was accurate, it would be a minor influencer, not really getting to the reasons why a household really behaves in that manner--just making guesses based on the researcher's desires.

I can go into more, but what's the point, your mind is made up!


Note: Publishing is easy, as there are sites what will publish almost anything for a fee. Now, based on the lack of critical reading that was performed on my first reply, I highly doubt that anything was published in a worldly and well-respected journal.


.

[Cali_Democrat]

10. It was a scientific experiment, my dear.

[malletgirl02]

11. Well this female Sanders supporter

is against Hillary Clinton, because of her neo con foreign policy. Also I use to feel intimidated by politicians until I realize they are supposed to work for the people. We are their bosses and not the other way around.

[peace13]

13. Hillary comes with quite a bit of history.

Her gender is rarely the first complaint heard. To be fair, I am not a Hillary supporter but the fact that she is a woman is not on the list. If she were a man,that would not be the problem either. If she were gay , that would not be the problem. I would love to see a survey that asked the top five reasons for voting for Hillary and the top five reasons for not voting for her. That would tell us something. ....please don't hide me bro!

[NorthCarolina]

15. I have NEVER heard one person say they would not vote for Hillary because she is a woman, not one.

Yet this meme keeps popping its head up as if there is some credibility to it..when there's not. It really is not a stretch to see that the dislike for Hillary stems from policy positions and not gender. I would bet the farm that all of those you claim to be official "he-man women-haters" because they don't support Hillary would jump through fire to cast a vote for Elizabeth Warren for POTUS. Just admit, gop-lite just isn't that popular in the Democratic Party anymore. DLC'ers had their fling but their time is up. Populists and humanists are taking the party back. IMO fiscal conservatives have a place in politics, just not in the Democratic Party.

[lunamagica]

18. Do you really think they would admit it?

[NorthCarolina]

19. ...

[Marr]

26. Well, thank god we've got people like you then. To tell us all

what we actually think.

[TheBlackAdder]

43. Do you think they would admit it to a blind caller?

.


I mean, come on.


As I posted above, there are over 20 minutes of MMPI-2 type questions that are asked to get ANY type of scientific worthiness. And they are just the questions to feel out if the caller could be trustworthy, with no guarantee.

They are calling into NJ, where I live. I highly doubt people sat on the phone for over 30 minutes, asking questions that probe whether they lie, steal things, are deceptive, etc... with questions that flat out ask if they lie, how often, if they ever took things.

A person has no idea if the Caller ID, if there is one, is legitimate. If someone does answer those probing questions, over a phone, that should raise bells as to their mental prowess.


.

[surrealAmerican]

16. If this were true, wouldn't more religious male voters ...

... be less likely to support Clinton than their less religious counterparts?

That is not a pattern we've been seeing in these primaries.

Could questions about household income in the survey be causing voters to think about economic issues that Clinton is weaker on?

[Starry Messenger]

22. The recent primary polling for CA was eye-opening.

I'll leave it at that.

[progressoid]

25. On the flip side. Why aren't young female voters flocking to Hillary?

[timmymoff]

27. It has nothing to do with her gender

it has everything to do with the numerous evolutions, adaptations, and other instance of imitating a weathervane.

[GreatGazoo]

29. There are polls that ask about a voter's priority for "first female president"

and they show many picking Hillary on that basis.

This is multivariate stuff and it quickly gets tough to handicap all the biases but gender seems to cut both ways.

[Surya Gayatri]

30. Well, who knew? What a surprise, NOT!

Is the sky blue?

Is the Pope Catholic?

Poor, insecure things. Big, bad Hillary is SO threatening. Pffft!

[lumberjack_jeff]

31. So this will be the excuse when Washington supports Bernie?

Washington with two female Senators and our most recent governor?

[malletgirl02]

32. Yes all Bernie Sanders supporters are sexist.

It can't be about actual policy, like Clinton's support for Iraq and Libya, heaven forfend.

[KPN]

33. And the reverse is most likely true as well.

Gender bias occurs in both directions, no?

It would be interesting to see what studies out there show. Is it a wash? Or is it a bigger problem for one gender?

[Dem2]

34. It's definitely a thing

Sad but true, we're just not as progressive in some areas as we think we are.

[Bread and Circus]

35. I absolutely agree. I am sure it also helps her with women, which is obvious.

I am sure Obama being black helped him with black voters.

I don't doubt we will have a Latino person on the ticket at some point some which will likely help that ticket with Latino voters.

All of this is not some sort of mystery to be unraveled.

Sexism, and identity politics in general, are very real things. No denying it.

However this doesn't excuse Clinton's pro-war pro-corporate anti-worker behavior.

Give me a good liberal, progressive female candidate to support and she has my vote. For instance, I would very happily vote for Warren (even considering at one point she was a Republican) because what she speaks to is the truth for me.

The problem I have with Hillary Clinton supporters on DU is the notion that reason 40% of the Democratic Party is voting against Clinton has to do with some irrational fears or prejudices rather than she is just a bad candidate in that we feel she represents almost everything that is bad about the party and we need a real change.

What's weird to me is how few female progressives we have had running for President within the Democratic Party.

We always seem to have a Kucinich, but it's almost always a male.

Why no female progressives?

Let's see more of those.

[SMC22307]

38. Hillary is costing Hillary. (n/t)

[Attorney in Texas]

39. Is it possible she is an ideologically unappealing candidate whose weakness is masked by voters who

think we are long overdue for a female president?

I'm voting for Sanders in the primary and voting for our nominee in the general election regardless of whether it's Sanders or Hillary. The only (and I do mean only) thing I like about Hillary's candidacy is that I think we are long overdue for a female president (I hope Elizabeth Warren will be the one to pass that barrier, but if it has to be an American Maggie Thatcher, then it is what it is).

If you took a male candidate with Hillary's positions on the issues and with her political experience (as near as you could approximate that experience), do you think that hypothetical male candidate would be doing any better among men (I don't) or would be doing better among women than Hillary is currently doing with men (I don't).

[ibegurpard]

56. the male equivalent to Hillary

Would be doing far, far worse. The historic nature of her run has put blinders on many people who should know better.

[Attorney in Texas]

59. I think we can look at Jim Webb's campaign.

[Mary Mac]

40. well if Trump is candidate we will have a shot at Republican women's vote

Don't know about Cruz.

[Arugula Latte]

42. There are also many women like myself who would love to have a woman president

but find Hillary's positions on important issues reprehensible and her propensity to be corrupted by money to be very concerning and many of her previous statements to be very alarming and her ability to lie and flip flop to be very disconcerting.

[BreakfastClub]

45. People don't realize the pervasive nature of patriarchy and how it

colors our perceptions of everything. Even women show bias when it comes to voting for women. Sexism is so widespread in our culture because it IS our culture.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

46. Voting for a man because he is male is the same as voting for a woman because she's female.

And, the same holds true in regards to ethnicity, social status, wealth, or shoe size.

[BreakfastClub]

47. Men have been voting for men since the birth of our democracy. That

is why we've never had a woman president. Men vote for other men and women should be no different when the opportunity presents itself. Women need to be told that there's nothing wrong with voting for a woman b/c she is a woman, contrary to the patriarchal message that it is somehow wrong.

Women should vote for their OWN best interest and not be shamed into believing some bullshit about how women shouldn't vote based on gender issues. Of course women should vote for women's rights and a democratic woman president who supports women's rights would change the world. Women are considered a "minority" in this country even though we are the majority. That should tell you something.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

48. I think we agree.

One of my priorities in voting is gender "issues".

I voted for a woman for president in 2012, but not because she's a woman but because of issues, including gender issues.

You?

[kstewart33]

49. Sexism rules even in this day and age. nt

[ismnotwasm]

50. This is really interesting

I can hardly wait until sexism becomes a legitimate topic of discussion again. Now it's called ''playing the gender card"

[RazBerryBeret]

51. I'm a woman willing to admit

that Hillary's gender is causing me great pause...but only because SHE keeps pointing it out.
Expecting more than the norm because you are a woman is also sexist, in my book. I will agree that she has faced extra scrutiny because she is a woman, but she isn't helping matters. IMO.

[lumberjack_jeff]

52. I just returned from my caucus.

Our caucus went for Bernie 25:13. Of that total, roughly 25 people were there in person. Of those, roughly 7 were Clinton supporters.

The men outnumbered women in the Clinton camp by 7:2

The Sanders supporters were evenly split.

It's not about sex. The women in the caucus were more likely to be Sanders supporters than the men.

[ibegurpard]

54. faulty logic

It's so much easier to chalk it all up to misogyny than examine the problems with Clinton's (and the Rockefeller Republican wing of the Democratic Party) policies and politics.

[Major Hogwash]

57. Well, that's because Bernie is a man's man.

The kind of man that throws his old kit bag over his shoulder and whistles while he walks briskly down the pier.

Ya know, one who wears Old Spice!!

[CentralMass]

58. She has become the ultimate insider. She has a cozy and highly profitable

relationship with Wall St. Her foreign policies decisions are aggressive, dangerous, and costly. She represents the status quo and establishment politics that many of us believe are not in our best interests.

She is not running as an agent of change.

I'm a 56 year old male and I supported her in 2008. These 8 years have changed my opinion. Her gender has nothing to do with it.

[riversedge]

60. Congrats to backwards USA!!-- "perceived threats to their masculinity" I do

know there is truth to this. The solution is not to put up a male as the Dem Nominee. It is catch up with other countries who have female heads of states.

[Odin2005]

61. Bullshit.

[Cali_Democrat]

65. It's true. nt

[ericson00]

62. I would bet that its because as of now, this primary has forced Hillary to play

so hard to please some on the progressive left, that's why she mentions her gender like she does, since her foreign policy and several domestic issues make progressives not as into her as moderates. In a general election, she'll probably mention it less, and make up some ground.

I could care less about her gender; I'm a straight white male who thinks she has the qualifications and governing ability to be great. Somehow, to many primary voters, those aren't priorities. Political revolution is.

[CentralMass]

63. We have descended into a very dire global predicament both

from a fiscal standpoint and national/global security due to bad decision making by our leadership in both parties.
We don't need more of the same.