58% of remaining delegates?

[demwing]

so far tonight, Bernie has claimed 84% of the delegates:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

27/32= .844 or 84%, in states as politically different as WA and AK. Can't wait to see HI's results

[Jackie Wilson Said]

1. 58% of all the remaining primaries? I was curious about this.

[leftofcool]

2. Bernie has to win 58% of the delegates for all remaining states just to catch up to Hills

That percentage will go up to about 59 or 60% tomorrow.

[Hortensis]

4. Yes, and this will be the happy stretch, to be followed

by sliding farther behimd. Let them be happy right now. These votes for Sanders are as real as any others.

[tabasco]

8. Please,

show your work.

[SheilaT]

10. You have noticed that Bernie won

by a huge landslide in Washington State and Alaska? In case you missed that information, reread the previous sentence.

My math indicates that Bernie probably has won at least his target (which various sources place at 81 delegates for him to catch up) with just those two states. And he'll win delegates in Hawaii.

So if he closes the gap with Hillary, how in the world would is percentage still needed go up?

I'm guessing you weren't very good at math in high school.

[DLnyc]

19. fun with math!

If Bernie wins more than 58% of the delegates tonight, as he almost certainly will, the percent he needs going forward will go down, not up.

This could be called obvious: if you get a higher proportion than you need tonight, than you can afford to get a bit lower proportion after tonight, and still have gotten the proportion you needed overall. I worked it out formally using algebra, but perhaps an example is easier to understand:

RCP this afternoon had Bernie with 920 pledged delegates and Hillary with 1223. That gives 4051 - (920 + 1223) = 1908 still to be chosen. So Bernie needed 2026 - 920 = 1106 to win or 1106/1908 = 57.97% (about 58%, as you said). And Hillary needed 2026 - 1223 = 803 to win or 803/1908 = 42.09% to win.

Now assume tonight's 142 delegates go 99 to Bernie and 43 to Hillary (i.e. 70% to Bernie).

New situation: Bernie will have 920 + 99 = 1019 and Hillary will have 1223 + 43 = 1266. That will give 4051 - (1019 +1266) = 1766 delegates still to be chosen. So Bernie will need 2026 - 1019 = 1007 to win or 1007/1766 = 57.02% (less than 58%, as I said). And Hillary will need 2026 - 1266 = 760 to win or 760/1766 = 43.04% (more than 42%).

Thank you for giving me a chance to work out the math!

(For what it's worth, by algebra, if he gets any percentage over 58% tonight, his percent needed going forward will be less than it was before tonight.)

[jfern]

20. LOL, it will go down seeing as he's clearly winning >58% today

[eomer]

24. Wrong, it will go down below 58% due to winning more than 58% today. (eom)

[karynnj]

27. Why will it go up tomorrow?

Given that he exceeded that percent today, it actually will go DOWN slightly for the remainder. Still very daunting.

[DemocracyDirect]

29. Crickets from the special math department.

Oh well.

Maybe they went to a Hillary rally.

[morningfog]

32. It will go down! Math, as Hillary fans chant.

[eomer]

37. It's "tomorrow" and Bernie now has to win about 56.5% of remaining delegates.

As of this morning the percentage of remaining pledged delegates that Bernie needs went down to about 56.5%.

Needed to have a majority: 2,026
Current Bernie count: 1,032
Bernie needs: 2,026 - 1,032 = 994
Remaining total: 1,759
Percent of remaining: 994 / 1,759 = 56.5%

This is based on the following current results from yesterday:
Washington: Bernie 68, Hillary 21
Alaska: Bernie 13, Hillary 3
Hawaii: Bernie 17, Hillary 8

There are 12 pledged delegates for Washington not yet allocated.

[Ruby the Liberal]

3. Not following your math?

Of the 117 from the link (101 WA and 15 AK), what is the 32?

[demwing]

5. Delegates awarded so far = Bernie (27) + Hillary (5)

27+5 =32

27/32 = 84%

As I said in my OP, these are the numbers so far...

[Ruby the Liberal]

12. Gotcha - thanks

I must have visually skipped right over that part

[edgineered]

6. Appears to be the early count of confirmed delegates,

not the totals. We all know how bad the election results are with incomplete information. For now they are showing 9/0 out of 15 in AK, and 18/5 (eta: out of 101) in WA. At least that's how it looks at this point.

[Ruby the Liberal]

11. Why do they do that on proportional contests?

(Rhetorical)

[edgineered]

13. Why continue talking to myself when able to answer rhetoric?

I find it frustrating that at the end of the day they don't update, the numbers stay the same and yet the 30 second count-down clock continues to run. Select Minnesota for example: https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/minnesota/ WTF?

[LiberalFighter]

14. I don't use the WP, NYT or any other media.

I use Green Papers as my source.

[edgineered]

16. Thanks. They account for the missing delegate in UT and ID

The WP has UT at 26+6 out of 33 (one short), and ID at 17+5 out of 23 (also one short). There are probably many other discrepancies if one were to look for them, but why bother when there is no confidence in their reporting.

Most people are not as critical of numbers that don't add up or votes that don't get counted.

[LiberalFighter]

17. I think part of the problem with them is not updating later on.

Green Papers updates regularly. From what I can tell they have it automatically calculate the delegates when they just input the actual votes. On their front page they identify recent changes.

[edgineered]

18. Adage change: My kingdom for a bookmark... nt

[Jenny_92808]

26. I see that you FAV'D this

thread "Why Hillary Needs Sanders to Drop Out of the Race (and Sanders Has No Need for Hillary to Drop Out)"

I can't help but disagree with your position, so buh bye.

[Ruby the Liberal]

31. You support Senator Sanders, right?

Did you bother to read that thread?

[Lorien]

7. A cinch if we can end election fraud

we also need to insist on a re-vote in AZ, or cast out ALL of their delegates!

[demwing]

9. Remember, each state that delivers more than 58% of their delegates

eases the challenge for the remaining states.

[edgineered]

21. Thanks to LiberalFighter for the GreenPapers link.

Alaska went 13/3 to Sanders
Washington went 73/28 also to Sanders.

That's 86/31 for a net gain/loss of 55 pledged delegates. As we know, HI has to report on its 25.

[demwing]

22. So Bernie is still outperforming the 58% mark

but only by 15 points instead of 25.

I'll definitely take that!

[edgineered]

23. It makes me happy

86/117 = 73.5%

What bothers me is how the news will play out for the next few weeks. There's only WI and WY before NY on April 19th. They have only 100 delegates combined, so for the next 3 weeks Clinton is going to coast, preparing for the big win in NY. What the pundits and the press will do then is express how shocked they are that Bernie has flat-lined, etc. Don't fall for the bull that will be served up.

[Zira]

25. I know everyone is saying a big win in NY but I bet it's going to be a big suprise.

NY is not South Carolina. Just saying. I'm not writing off NY. Even though I'm the only person in America who is not. I think they're very informed about what is going on, Wall Street jobs in the state or not.

BTW, my brother who was supporting Trump, switched to Bernie today. So did his wife. I do not understand how that happend but he told me Bernie is the only one with good ideas and Trump was okay until he turned so racist.

[Autumn Colors]

28. This native NY-er says

Do NOT write off NY!!!

A) People in way upstate NY are familiar with Bernie .... Vermont is right next door
B) HRC may get the rich people's votes in NYC ... but Bernie's a native Brooklynite! I bet he wins Brooklyn precincts at least -- probably not Manhattan, though.
C) HRC will probably win Westchester County and Long Island with near ties in Putnam, Rockland, and Dutchess (NYC commuter counties)
D) I bet the rest of upstate ... a YUUUUGE area ... goes for Bernie big time. Don't forget that whole swath of NY State that sits just above Pennsylvania. They've seen what fracking has done to PA, so that's a big issue for them.

She might have been elected Senator but she is NOT a NY native. A lot of people consider her a carpetbagger.

DO NOT GIVE UP ON NEW YORK STATE. It isn't all New York CITY and rich bankers.

[DemocracyDirect]

30. New York may decide the nomination.

Go Bernie Go!

[morningfog]

33. The for the insight!m.

It's gonna be a fun one.

[edgineered]

35. Back when me and the dinosaurs were growing up

in rural upstate, my city cousins would visit. It is doubtful that they support reptilian throwbacks either.

[Autumn Colors]

36. Fingers crossed (nt)

[edgineered]

34. NY is very important, and each percentage point is big.

The importance of NY cannot be understated. With 247 delegates, each 1% swing in the vote amounts to either a 2 or 3 delegate change for both candidates, eg, 51% is a difference of 5 delegates (126/121). Because it doesn't divide out equally for each percentage of change, a rule of thumb is that 5% of the vote means a difference of roughly 12 delegates. An outcome of 55/45 would end up as 136/111 (12+12+one more).
See this link: http://demrace.com/ It's fretful trying to get the totals you want to see from the numbers you want to play. Have fun.