2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhere are we compared with 2008?
Because the calendars and the number of delegates are so different between the two years, there are a few different ways to make the comparison.
If we look at the percentage of delegates so far allocated, about 57%, then we're at the same place as February 5, 2008, the end of Super Tuesday. (I know, there were a LOT of states that day!) On that day, Obama's lead over Hillary was 20 delegates.
That "20" doesn't tell the full story, though. Because there were 3,410 delegates up for grabs in 2008, as opposed to 4,051 today, we can adjust for "delegate inflation." So in today's delegates, his lead would be 24 delegates.
If we look at the number of contests so far held, 35, then we're in the same place as February 10, 2008, the day that Maine voted. On that day, Obama's lead was 75 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, that's 89 delegates.
If we look at the actual date, March 28, then we're at the point in 2008 where all but 10 contests have been decided. On that day, Obama's lead was 148 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, 176 delegates.
Obama's maximum lead over Hillary at any time was 151 delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 180 delegates. And at the end of it all, Obama's lead was 106 pledged delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 124 delegates.
At present, Hillary's lead over Bernie is 230 delegates.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)wanting a sincere, honest Democratic nominee who couldn't be bought, and, fortunately, in the end Obama beat Hillary.
Now, though, in 2016 the outcome may not be as good -- we shall have to see.