The 4 Things You Need to Know About Bernie Sanders’ Historic Comeback

[vkkv]

...Clinton’s view of, use of, and benefit from super-delegates has been anti-democratic from the jump....

4. Sanders’ growing ability to meet or exceed his delegate targets almost everywhere.

Right now, FiveThirtyEight.com says that Bernie Sanders has met 92% of his delegate target — the number he needs to ensure that he wins the pledged delegate battle — after braving far and away the most difficult portion (for him) of the primary calendar. Meanwhile, Clinton is only 8% over her target, despite having had the benefit of all of the states that are most favorable to her having already voted.


It's a long read...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/the-4-things-you-need-to-know-about-bernie-sanders-historic-comeback_b_9557952.html

[DanTex]

1. Seth Abramson is challenging HA Goodman for the title of looniest pro-Bernie blogger.

Come on, HA, step it up!

[vkkv]

3. Is that a fact?...

[Segami]

15. lol!....did you say something?.....oh,...nothing.

I thought I heard a noise of some sort.....

[kristopher]

18. Gas. Sorry.

[geek tragedy]

2. We'll see how favorable New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland

are for Bernie in a few weeks.

[roguevalley]

6. I will. By the way, given all the shit that Alaska received for having

the temerity to vote for Bernie and not her, Alaska is more diverse than 44 of the 50 states. I am looking forward to New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland voting.

[vkkv]

9. Bernie winning Alaska was a SHOCKER to me in Calif.. An excellent shock, though! -eom

[roguevalley]

12. they just had a poll. the greatest gains in self identification were for

those who call themselves moderate and liberal with conservatives declining. The largest voter group are independents. Its getting way better and Bernie has that much cross over appeal. She doesn't.

[Segami]

17. Pretty soon, her support will whittle down...

to the last few posters here on DU.....

[Zira]

4. Awesome news! Thank you!

[bullimiami]

5. 5. It hasn't happened yet.

don't count your chickens until the votes are counted.

That goes for everybody.

[vkkv]

10. Yep, agreed. And it's looking very good for Bernie. - eom

[Rebkeh]

7. Great post, thanks

[Land of Enchantment]

8. A very good read although my eyes glazed over a few times but points

well taken. I found this of particular interest:

Right now, FiveThirtyEight.com says that Bernie Sanders has met 92% of his delegate target — the number he needs to ensure that he wins the pledged delegate battle — after braving far and away the most difficult portion (for him) of the primary calendar. Meanwhile, Clinton is only 8% over her target, despite having had the benefit of all of the states that are most favorable to her having already voted.

[hack89]

11. I think NY, PA and NJ are very favorable to her.

this writer is full of it.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

13. This is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the 538 targets.

The 538 targets take into account how favourable or unfavourable a state is.

Clinton is ahead in real terms by 55% to 45%. But because the states that have already voted have been, on average, slightly more favourable to her than the remaining states, that's been adjusted down so that she's "only" got 108% of her target.

[SunSeeker]

14. Bernie outspent Hillary on the air 27-to-1 in Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska.

His "comeback" basically consists of dumping resources into low-delegate caucus states. It is not sustainable. There are only 2 such states left, IIRC.

[vkkv]

16. The trend lines look BAD for HRC-> -eom

[frustrated_lefty]

19. Playing around with the numbers

I identified some potentially interesting correlations in voting. Graphing the percentage of delegates awarded for each candidate (y axis) vs the percentage of the population in each state with a college education (x axis), the margin for Bernie's wins increases in direct relation to the education of the population and the margin for Hillary wins increases in inverse relation to the education of the population.

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

Regression analysis indicates this to be a statistically significant difference. Obviously, this is just playing with numbers. But, it makes me curious to see the outcome in New York, where the percentage of the population with a college education is particularly high.