Intrade now has Obama at ABOVE a 60% chance of re-election!

[musicblind]

Considering how accurate intrade is, and that people are having to make actual bets with actual consequences on the outcomes... this is pretty damn good.

How high can it go? 65%? 70%? Given all the factors out there, 60% is an INCREDIBLE number.

If he were to somehow win by 60% of the popular vote it would be an Earth shattering landslide.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

[lukkadairish]

1. The key

...will be sustaining that percentage. A combo of hard campaigning work by us, the continuance of the republican party's Biblical (literally) meltdown, and the small improvements monthly in economic indicators will spell success

[sudopod]

2. No offense, but I don't get what insight a bunch of gamblers have that we don't.

Not unless the site is limited to wizards or something.

[joshcryer]

3. It's just the wisdom of the crowd.

[grantcart]

4. Not gambling they are putting their money where the think people's opinions are

Follows the well established "wisdom of crowds".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds


It is considered more reliable than polls because it measures the depth of support while polls tend to listen to a more superficial level of interest.

[grantcart]

5. Thanks for the update

60% at intrade doesn't equate to 60% of the vote but a 60% betting chance on getting atleast 51% of the electoral college.

60% is a very very high level at Intrade because there is little reason in investing higher than 60% because you are risking a lot to get a little.

For example Romney is now a 30% chance to win and if I were to invest money today I would buy Romney at $ 30 rather than the President at 60% because even though I think Romney is a terrible campaigner and is going to lose big I also think that if he gets the nomination he will get a post nomination bump and in will likely go to 40% atleast for a while. That would net me a 30% return. The President's 60% number is unlikely to go much higher until deep in the campaign but if it goes to 70% then you would have made only 15% on your investment.

[DFW]

6. If he faces Romney, Santorum or Newt, I give him 99%

If it's my predicted Mr. Noneoftheabove, it drops down to 70%.

I still like his odds.

None of this means he'll have an easier time of it than he did in his first term.
The Party Of "NO" will not suddenly become the Party of "well, if you insist" after
his second inauguration.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Correct

I follow Intrade and will buy Obama the next time he hits a little speed bump and falls below 55%.

Intrade is non partisan and they make odds on all types of things, they have been deadly accurate with the Presidential races, they take every detail into account including polling, history, the economy, gas prices, inflation, etc etc. They have been so accurate that if you combine the last 2 Presidential Elections they've gotten 99 out 100 states correct.

Obama has been around 60% for a month or so, which means you can buy shares at $6.00 each, by late October if little has changed in the polls he'll be at $9.00+ a share. I put more faith in Intrade than any polling, although it's like comparing apples to oranges.