2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPlease be rational about this. Clinton nor the DNC is purposely flipping voter registrations
And this doesn't need much to show that it is so unlikely it borders on absurdity:
- Proposing that a widespread conspiracy filled with multiple individuals willfully committing felonious crimes. You know, actual felonies. Not just one person, not just two but members throughout the entire campaign and party apparatus engaging in such highly illegal activity as hacking voter rolls, hacking Bernie's identification files of likely voters, illegally accessing voter registration systems and switching identifications and on and on.
- Not a single whistleblower or person with a conscience in either the party or campaign who has been asked to be party to these crimes has come forward. Not one. This is an almost statistical impossibility for av widespread conspiracy.
- According to Anonymous, less than 200 claims of registration switch have been identified of which, 113 were self identified Bernie supporters. Let's assume it is more than 100 times widespread than identified, that is still less than 15,000 people total. Even if all the switching occurred only in Arizona (Which is not the claim, as people have insisted this is happening in PA and NY, as well), it barely moves the delegate totals. And if you were to suggest the majority was happening in NY it doesn't even register as a blip.
- In order for registration switching to be meaningful in NY, the numbers would have to be tremendous. Assuming that Clinton wanted to add a 5% buffer between her and Bernie, she would need to invalidate the registrations of almost 100K Sanders supporters. That would be a lot more public and a lot more obvious than the conspiracy grumbling on certain corners of the internet.
So, in conclusion, the theory is that Clinton and the Party are engaged in a widespread, but stupid, conspiracy to switch a tiny number of registrations on a scale that barely registers in a primary and will gleefully commit a staggering number of felonies while doing so. Moreover this conspiracy, which crosses campaign, party and state lines had been successfully kept silent at every level of involvement. And, of course, on top of all the crimes, any discovery of switching these tiny number of registrations would guarantee a loss for the candidate who is currently the front-runner.
That is just massively, massively, massively unlikely.
Much more likely:
- Systems glitched
And/or
- People fabricated stories on the internet
Final note: this has nothing to do with the disgraceful voting line situation in Arizona that was driven by the Republican leadership of that state. That was and is active voter disenfranchisement that needs to be addressed.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)and who is a Clinton supporter by looking at a voter registration file.
conspiracy theories often exist to allow people to continue in a state of denial, to allow them to escape from a reality they would prefer to deny
it is asking too much for the people pimping such theories to be rational--that sort of thing is not their bag, baby.
brush
(53,971 posts)And another thing, why would a dem switch registrations to something else when the general election is coming up?
Were they then going to switch them back for the general?
Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)4000 people had it switched that they knew of in Maricopa County, Arizona alone. No reason explained.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And again 4k in Arizona's largest county barely moves the needle. The risk/reward ratio is just not there for this to be on purpose.
unapatriciated
(5,390 posts)I took the time to watch all three of these vids and we as a party should be worried about the GE.
I don't believe it was Clinton campaign thing, but both camps need to address this.
These two OP's got little or no recognition. I watched all three vids. I came away with such a feeling of doom if we as a party ignore this.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1038&pid=3171
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=347146
yardwork
(61,772 posts)That's what happened in previous elections. This is not about Hillary v. Bernie. It's about stealing the election for Republicans. It's happening in Republican-controlled states and has been for some time.
But maybe both sides should be calling it out and not just one. Most people are thinking it is OK because they think their side won. It is same with M$M Hillary supporters are ok with amount of Media coverage because Hillary vs Sanders it leans in her favor. But at same time Hillary + Sanders is less than 4x amount Trump is getting.
yardwork
(61,772 posts)We all need to pay attention to this - it's a huge problem for Democrats.
Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)Is something that needs to not happen. To much of it is being ignored because only Sanders talked about it and media is only going to start talking about this if Hillary speaks out.
merrily
(45,251 posts)differently than you is irrational. o.k.
There has been one problem or another in almost every state and D.C. and every single time, in favor of the same candidate--including Bubba's gladhanding people standing on line to vote in Newton. Could be (snort) "massively, massively, massively" coincidental or not. Nothing about seeing a pattern in the behavior of the DNC and state parties is irrational. Neither is concluding it's all coincidental. Get over yourself.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Not everything needs to be a conspiracy.
merrily
(45,251 posts)involved and one thing after another doesn't look look or smell right may just be a moran.
Did you have a point about my prior post?
Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)conspiracy. Yet now it turns out it was not.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Nothing about having a theory of any kind, including a theory about a conspiracy, is inherently irrational or insane. I started a thread about this subject in DU and, later, another and I think a better, thread at Jackpine Radicals.
Both threads contain some great replies (and some typical knee jerk replies). I highly recommend many of the replies.
http://jackpineradicals.org/showthread.php?1706-Conspiracy-theories-Give-Ockham-s-Razor*-a-rest-now-and-again-will-ya&highlight=ockham%27s+razor
http://www.democraticunderground.com/127710043
randome
(34,845 posts)Each state is dealing with hundreds of thousands of people. Of course there will be problems.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]"There is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in."
Leonard Cohen, Anthem (1992)[/center][/font][hr]
yardwork
(61,772 posts)We can easily make arguments that more of Hillary's supporters were disenfranchised than Bernie's.
This is not about the Democratic primary. It's about Republicans stealing the elections in November.
merrily
(45,251 posts)that Bill Clinton didn't show up at polling places in Massachusetts, etc.
However, the point of my original post was simply that everyone who sees events differently from a Hillary supporter who seems unable to fault her for ANYthing is not necessarily irrational.
yardwork
(61,772 posts)For example, Hillary won Maricopa County by a huge margin. Assuming that the population of people who gave up waiting in long lines were similar to the population of people who were able to wait long enough to vote, we can assume that the number of Hillary supporters disenfranchised were much larger than the number of disenfranchised Bernie supporters. (And, in fact, the population of people who had to give up waiting in line is probably different from the people who were able to wait, and it's likely that more of the ones who were unable to wait - older people, people of color - had a higher proportion of people who would have voted for Hillary. And this was probably true in North Carolina as well, where Republicans also caused voter suppression.)
To fault Hillary for the Republican-controlled Arizona voting suppression is absurd. It's also distracting from a much larger problem. This voter suppression is happening all over the country in Republican-controlled states. It has nothing to do with the Democratic primaries. It's far more ominous. It's about suppressing the Democratic vote.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Both sets of arguments is a different issue from calling one side or the other irrational or absurd, which I have already told you was the point of my post.
Also, kindly point out where I blamed Hillary for Arizona or anything else (though I do strongly suspect she knew about Bubba and Massachusetts, I didn't even say that). Thanks in advance.
unapatriciated
(5,390 posts)There were many mistakes (going from 200 polling stations to 60 is just one) and anomalies that should have all of us asking for answers. I agree it is ultimately about suppressing the Democratic vote and that is why we all need to join together and address this before the GE.
These two OP's got little or no recognition. I watched all three vids. I came away with such a feeling of doom if we as a party ignore this.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1038&pid=3171
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=347146
yardwork
(61,772 posts)Tarc
(10,478 posts)The sanders camp seems to be particularly prone to conspiracy theory, and it seems like they haven't honestly conceded a single state yet.
"Hillary duped the black people of South Carolina!"
"Hillary must have done...er, something!...in Ohio, because we expected to win!"
"Bill caused a traffic jam in Massachusetts, preventing Sanders voters from voting!"
"ARIZONAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!, where Hillary somehow made the GOP whittle the polling stations down to 60, and flipped registrations!"
merrily
(45,251 posts)Tarc
(10,478 posts)I've been lightly critical of some of Sanders' policies, he's a bit too spendy for my fiscal desires, but I'd still vote for him in the Fall if by some major miracle he is the nominee.
Some...emphasis on some, as the DU crew is not representative of his base as a whole...leave much to be desired...
merrily
(45,251 posts)Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)Well when you have people like Lewis lying about Sanders on TV with Hillary standing behind him during his endorsement speech of her. And you have News media spreading other lies that started from a site that is owned by her campaign strategist. What are people to think? I am down here in SC and I hear all time how Sanders lied about him being a Civil Rights Activist. That is a sure way to turn off a Southerner African American.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)Thank heavens tinfoil hats are reusable and recyclable!!
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)cosmicone
(11,014 posts)hobbit709
(41,694 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)hobbit709
(41,694 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Another thread in latest threads: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280162402
Dem2
(8,168 posts)The claims are so illogical that most of us have misfiring synapses trying to put into writing what should be inherently obvious to all.
brooklynite
(94,950 posts)JudyM
(29,294 posts)supporters - or some of them - adopt her very clear model of pulling strings and doing things behind closed doors that will work to her advantage. This is not conjecture, as there has been evidence, e.g., caucus heads caught reporting flipped vote results, as well as people being turned away without being offered provisional ballots, etc. The democratic party in these locations is run by establishment dems.
Hillary doesn't have to be a shining example of ethical behavior, but when she has a pattern, as does her proxy, DWS, of playing fast and loose with the rules in order to meet her ends, it is laughable to think it is not sending a message about who she is and how she plays ball.
Dismissing it as false conspiracy is quite naive.
revbones
(3,660 posts)Hillary's campaign couldn't have exploited the firewall being down in the VAN data right?
Try again, when her campaign and super-PACs and surrogates show some integrity. Then it might be more believable.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)bullshit.
All in it together
(275 posts)Have been changed and Not by them. People who have been Dems for decades, shifted to Republican, we need to check this out in states that are yet to vote. Call your Sec. Of State or look online for who to call and make sure your registration is accurate.
This seems to be a new thing happening and it harms our Democracy. It doesn't take a huge conspiracy to flip some votes or make someone loose their vote. It just takes a few well placed folks in government or politics to play dirty tricks. Republicans have been pretty upfront about doing this, and the Clintons do like to use their tactics and political point of view.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)It is insurance for self preservation.
djean111
(14,255 posts)so none of this was going to affect my support for Bernie at all. In any way.
Kind of interesting, though, that the thought that a candidate/party apparatus is certainly capable of this bullshit is arrived at so quickly. We have all seen rat-fuckery before, and this looks like rat-fuckery. Can't be helped, can't be swept away on wings of platitudes. Reminds me of how angry a liar gets when they are accused of lying, sort of.
This issue does not override other trust issues at all.
Also, you don't know what happened, either.
Pisces
(5,604 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)That ship sailed a long time ago.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)and Bernie has been attacked and lied about throughout this campaign. By Clinton's shills, Clinton herself, Billy boy and their connections plus of course the MSM.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Sky Masterson
(5,240 posts).
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)(Nice try. I applaud your optimism.)
LAS14
(13,791 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)This is counterproductive and useless.
However Hillary remaining silent on the shit that DID go down in Arizona is disgusting and inexcusable.