Weaver: Bernie Will Win an Open Convention

[firebrand80]

Start digging up those goalposts, time to move them again.

Bernie Sanders' campaign manager insisted Tuesday that the independent Vermont senator will win the Democratic nomination over Hillary Clinton at the party's convention this summer.

"I think what this campaign is looking for and what the senator is looking for is going into the convention and coming out with the nomination," Jeff Weaver said on CNN's "New Day."

"When we arrive at the convention, it will be an open convention, likely with neither candidate having a majority of pledged delegates," Weaver told host Chris Cuomo.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/275181-campaign-manager-sanders-hopes-to-win-nomination-at


What, pray tell, is going to make the Superdelegates abandon pledged delegate leading Hillary Clinton in favor of Bernie Sanders? A moveon.org online petition?

[KMOD]

1. Just wait til the Superdelegates get to know him.

Once they know him, they will like him and then they will switch.

[firebrand80]

2. LOL, nice one nt

[brooklynite]

12. So your excuse is that Party Leaders are too ignorant of Bernie Sanders to make an informed choice?

...and after 11 months of campaigning?

[geek tragedy]

16. I think that was snark. nt

[KMOD]

18. yes. it was snark.

thank you.

[KMOD]

21. No, not at all.

Just a play on how much I read here about people flocking to Bernie once they get to know him.

[Sheepshank]

69. the op was snark, but you actually had a good point

SD's still don't know him after all this time? Maybe he needs another 25 years in office?

[Sheepshank]

68. Apparently the BS supporters are swarming and insulting Super Delegates already

...not sure is this is what you actually meant, however. haa haa haa haaaaaaaa

[hrmjustin]

3. Not going to happen. Hillary has more votes and pledged delegates.

She is likely to keep this lead and to steal this from Hillary would destroy the party.

[artislife]

8. Personally, I think the party is already in tatters

No matter who wins.

Interesting times. Both parties are imploding.

[rock]

76. No, not at all

The GOP maybe, but not the Dems. Now it's true the BSers cannot take their candidate losing and I suspect that a large part of them are going to behave badly, but the Hillary supporters are grown-ups. It happened before where she lost the candidacy and we survived.

[artislife]

86. ...that's right...that's right.

[Stallion]

4. He Must Believe in Santa Claus and Easter Bunny Too

Yes PLEASE put a Democratic Socialist on the top of my ticket so I get bombarded by Millions of Dollars of advertisements in a General Election saying I'm supporting a Socialist-hell the Republicans will call Bernie a Communist if they need to

[CalvinballPro]

5. Clap harder, Sanders supporters. Tinkerbell needs you to clap harder! nt

[Stallion]

9. I Think I Can-I Think I Can!

[leftynyc]

40. Now THAT was funny

Now I have to explain my squeals of laughter to everyone.

[ViseGrip]

6. Perhaps being tied to the world money laundering schemes???? maybe? ya think?

[Agschmid]

7. Why would we have an open convention?

It's highly mathematically likely someone seals the deal.

[OilemFirchen]

10. Will of the people, Bernie!

Remember that one?

[MineralMan]

11. To Weaver: Dude...there are only two candidates.

Unless there's an actual tie, one of those candidates will have a majority of pledged delegates. And, in fact, since the total number of pledged delegates to be allocated is an odd number, there's no way for there to be an actual tie.

Two candidates. No tie. One will have a majority of pledged delegates. That candidate will then become the nominee. The superdelegates will ratify the will of the voters.

This is silly. There will be no open convention or brokered convention on the Democratic side. There are only two candidates. One will be the winner after the last primary is held.

Who? We'll see, won't we?

[SFnomad]

25. The "Democrats Abroad" have 8 unpledge delegates with a 1/2 vote each

So technically, it's possible that Sanders and Clinton could each end up with a 1/2 vote.

[firebrand80]

28. I think what he meant was that

They are going to compete to have Superdelegates change their votes.

[FSogol]

47. Maybe it will work like King Solomon and they can cut one of the delegates* in half so they can be

shared. That would be fair, right?


* I do not recommend cutting Super-Delegates in half.

[MineralMan]

61. I suspect that the margin will be somewhat larger than 1.

Just a guess, of course. I think Hillary will go to the convention with at least a 250 pledged delegate lead.

[FSogol]

71. LOL, Math!

[MineralMan]

72. Math. Yup.

I'll just keep watching the results from the primaries and check the pledged delegate count after each one. The math is really simple.

[Trust Buster]

13. Yes, Super delegates are Democratic governors, senators, House members and the rest of the

Democratic establishment. Sure, they'll screw their careers by stabbing the Democratic front runner in the back and pledging allegiance to a Socialist that has done nothing but attack them (the establishment). It has reached the point that Sanders believes his followers will fall for anything they tell them.

[morningfog]

44. Democratic Socialist.

[Stallion]

62. Finally Somebody Gets It

these guys will do what is in their own best interest to win their own election-and for the vast majority that means staying away from the guy who knowingly identifies with Socialism. Unfair? Maybe. Its real world Politics-get over it.

[Peace Patriot]

74. Recent polls show that the majority of Americans LIKE socialism.

And it's no wonder--we have all been so very screwed by predatory capitalism.

[amborin]

14. KNR

[geek tragedy]

15. He's predicting an exact tie in pledged delegates? #berniemath nt

[MineralMan]

23. The total number of pledged delegates is an odd number.

4051, actually. There will be no tie with only two candidates running. It can't happen. If a delegate can't attend the convention, an alternate will take that delegate's place. There will be 4051 pledged delegates voting. An odd number cannot be divided equally by 2.

Guess what? That's intentional. That's why there is an odd number of pledged delegates to be allocated by the states.

Weaver didn't do his homework, it seems, or didn't do well in elementary school arithmetic.

[geek tragedy]

24. Moveable feast, that campaign team is nt

[morningfog]

45. Saying one wouldn't have a majority of pledged delegates is dumb.

It couldn't have been what he meant. He should be more careful when he talks or just keep his mouth shut.

[geek tragedy]

48. putting the best blush on it, he's saying no one will have enough pledged delegates

to win the nomination without superdelegate votes, that whoever finishes with the most pledged delegates will still need superdelegate votes.

Which is probably true. But still a dumb argument to make. Would either candidate contest the convention if they were down by 200 pledged delegates? Of course not. On June 8th or thereabout, one of the two will drop out and endorse the other one.

They should stick to "we have a path to winning a majority of pledged delegates" until NY, PA, MD, CT, DE, and RI have voted.

[morningfog]

50. Yep. That is what he was trying to say, but he botched it.

[geek tragedy]

56. Probably because it's still an awkward argument to make.

Putting my objective hat on (I can do that), I don't see what the heck he's trying to accomplish with this.

Which audience is going to be receptive to this?

"We can still win this at the polls" is one that is still clearly inspiring his supporters. This one seems to cut the opposite way--unless I'm misreading his supporters, they don't want to hear that the plan is to win it with superdelegates.

[morningfog]

59. I don't know exactly.

It goes hand in hand with his "pledged delegates aren't necessarily unmovable." That one strikes me as odd as well.

It may be his way of "saying without saying" his fall back position, which is if we can't manage to win a pledged delegate majority, the super delegates may go to us because Hillary may be damaged goods by July. The only way I can make the argument make sense is that he's saying, "Hillary is scandal plagued. If one brings her down, we'll still be standing." But he can't say out loud. it's wholly uninspiring.

[geek tragedy]

60. What's weird is that this seems to be targeted towards the political reporters

who are skeptical of these arguments, to put it mildly

[Iliyah]

17. HRC is winning pledged delegates, super delegates and popular vote

What happened to the "will of the people"?

[SFnomad]

19. That only matters if Secretary Clinton is trying to "steal" the nomination

It's fair game if Sanders is trying to do it.

IOKIYABSer.

[KingFlorez]

20. Now who is trying to use super delegates to grab the nomination?

This is basically admitting that they know that Sanders will not win enough pledged delegates. Once again I will say it is not Hillary Clinton that wants a coronation.

[DanTex]

22. I don't see how neither candidate ends up with a majority of the pledged delegates.

O'Malley has a tiny number of delegates (does he have any?), which means that in order for neither H or B to end up with a majority, they have to be almost exactly tied. Which is highly unlikely. Otherwise, whoever has more delegates between H and B would in fact have a majority of the pledged delegates.

It's probably true that neither candidate is going to have enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination without supers, but if Hillary has more pledged delegates, I don't see the supers overriding the pledged delegates, particularly since supers are already leaning her way.

[MineralMan]

26. O'Malley has zero pledged delegates.

He will continue to have zero, since the Democratic Party has a 15% rule. Any candidate receiving less than 15% of the vote at any level gets zero pledged delegates.

And, since the total number of pledged delegates is intentionally an odd number, a tie is impossible.

[DanTex]

30. Thanks. So that makes a situation where neither H nor B have a majority impossible.

[MineralMan]

67. Exactly. There will be 4051 pledged delegates.

An odd number. No tie will occur.

[Tom Rinaldo]

27. There are just under 720 Superdelegates

It is quite likely that nether candidate will be able to get the majority they need to secure the nomination with just pledged delegates alone. Who ends up ahead in that count and how close they can get to a majority that way is what is yet to be determined in states that have not yet voted.

[athena]

29. And if Hillary wins,

as seems likely, how will Bernie and his supporters argue that the superdelegates should vote against the will of the people?

Can you imagine the outrage here if Bernie won and the superdelegates voted for Hillary to reverse the result? Why is it OK one way but not the other way?

[firebrand80]

33. Bernie supporter were up in arms months ago

Over the remote possibility that SDs would give the election to Hillary if Bernie won more pledged delegates.

Hypocrisy at it's finest

[Tom Rinaldo]

35. It's still not claar that she will win

But if Hillary wins the pledged delegates, unless the split is very close AND her campaign was obviously coming apart at the seems for some dramatic reasons, I would expect the SD’s to roughly mirror how their states voted. They should not, assuming anything like normal circumstances, take the nomination away from her if Bernie fails to overtake Hillary.

If Bernie won the second half of the overall race quite strongly, showing that significant cracks were appearing in Hillary’s campaign that pointed to her being a very flawed candidate in November, and IF the pledged delegate split was extremely close after California between the two of them AND there was a sense that the longer campaigning went on the worse Hillary did — a very clear trend line down for her, THAT would be a scenario I believe that Superdelegates could rightfully take into consideration.

An obvious example would be when the leading candidate’s campaign entered into total meltdown — maybe due to legal or health issues or whatever. That’s what I am referring to above. But the less dramatic that meltdown the harder it is for me to justify SD’s stepping in to reverse the standings at the end of a close fight. even in this case for the guy I strongly support.

[SFnomad]

32. I remember Sanders cheerleaders claiming that if Secretary Clinton "stole" the nomination

with Superdelegates how it would "tear the Democratic Party apart".

Now it seems that they're realizing that's the only way Sanders will be able to win the nomination and they don't seem to care what it would do to the Democratic Party, or they never believed what they were saying in the first place.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Some people couldn't care less about the will of the people or democracy.

Some people couldn't care less about the will of the people or democracy. At their core they are totalitarians.

[Tom Rinaldo]

37. If you think it possible that SD's could steal the nomination for Bernie they could for Hillary also

I don't like the system, period. It seems neither candidate can get a majority without them.

[SFnomad]

39. That is true ... but the Sanders cheerleaders clearly stated

that if Sanders was ahead in pledged delegates and Clinton "stole" the election with Superdelegates it would "tear the Democratic Party apart".

Now it seems that this is their only hope for a nomination ... hypocrisy much?

[Tom Rinaldo]

57. I spoke to all this elsewhere on this thread

But let's start out with the uncertainty that is certain now: It has not yet been determined who will have the most pledged delegates entering the convention

In addition it is likely that some Superdelegate support will be needed for anyone to win the nomination.

[SFnomad]

58. It's actually pretty clear who will have the most delegates

That's why the Sanders supporters have had a change of heart about stealing the election with Superdelegates.

[Stallion]

63. Most Sanders Supporters Have Made Clear They Don't Care a Damn About the Democratic Party

this race would be a rout if only registered Democrats voted

[jcgoldie]

54. To say that neither candidate can get a majority without them is obfuscation

There are 2 candidates and an uneven amount of pledged delegates... therefore one candidate HAS to get a majority. Now once you throw in another 720 superdelegates this increases the number necessary to get a majority of total delegates by 360... but it's silly to expect either candidate to achieve that inflated majority based solely on their pledged delegate totals. One candidate will get a majority of pledged delegates and the superdelegates will follow suit... they will not determine who wins nor should they.

[SFnomad]

31. It will never get to an open convention ... Secretary Clinton will have it locked up by then. n/t

[Gothmog]

34. How will there be an open convention?

[geek tragedy]

38. There won't be. This is just bluster to back up their "until the convention" promise

The nomination will not be contested at the convention.

[WiffenPoof]

41. I often wonder....

If the primary period were longer... Say three months longer, I wonder if Sanders would win the nomination. I say this because as time goes on, Bernie seems to be matching or exceeding Clinton's success. In other words... He had the momentum.

[Tarc]

43. Perhaps he should have had a better plan right out of the gate

Contests have rules, and a beginning & an end.

If a football team is down 35-0 in the 4th quarter, storms back but eventually loses 35-31, it's still a loss.

There are no Participation Trophies in politics.

[WiffenPoof]

46. You make an excellent point...

Some would argue that Bernie didn't hit Clinton hard enough in the beginning. But...I guess that's not his style.

[firebrand80]

53. I don't think "momentum" is real

We're at a point in the primary calendar where the States are favorable to him. That's pretty much it.

If Southern states were voting right now, Hillary would have the "momentum."

[Nonhlanhla]

42. WTF? Is the Sanders campaign trying to destroy the Dems' chances in the GE?

At this point they are becoming destructive.

[firebrand80]

49. His campaign needs an argument to stay in

Whether or not they'll actually try to "contest" a convention that's a forgone conclusion is doubtful

[imagine2015]

51. Why Many Super Delegates Will Abandon Hillary At The Convention

As I wrote back on Mach 24th:

"If Hillary can't get the number of elected (pledged) delegates needed to win the nomination and the polls continue to show Sanders is doing much better against the Republican presidential candidate, the super delegates will abandon her in droves.

Especially those in states that Sanders won in primaries.

Democratic office holders don't want to go down with her in defeat in the General Election. They will get off that sinking ship and get
on the Bernie lifeboat."


And, others will follow the wishes of their voters and support whichever candidate won their state primary.

It would become an "open" convention.

[PufPuf23]

52. If Hillary Clinton does not have the primary votes to cinch the nomination, perhaps

the super delegates will conclude that:

(1) Sanders has the momentum;

(2) Sanders represents the want of a majority of Democrats at the time of the convention;

(3) There are too many negatives or an overwhelming single negative regards to Hillary Clinton; and

(4) The conclusion that Sanders is more likely to win the POTUS general election for for the Democratic Party.

[geek tragedy]

65. and maybe monkeys will fly out of Jeff Weaver's butt. nt

[PufPuf23]

84. Suit yourself to think of Jeff Weaver's butt.

I was contemplating scenarios.

I think Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for POTUS.

I do not support Hillary Clinton but would likely vote for her in the general election if my vote is needed (and cringe) as I have voted Democrat in every general POTUS election since McGovern (when I could first vote).

Clinton supporters in general and particularly at DU do not care how much they alienate people like me.

What if there is a disaster of some sort where Clinton cannot be nominee?

[geek tragedy]

85. if we're looking at a disaster scenario, probably Biden parachutes in. nt

[KPN]

55. Ummm ...

maybe the notion that they want the Party to retain the White House. By then, Trump will be trashed by the GOP for Ryan (if they can do that and they want to), Kasich od Cruz. All of whom handily defeat Hillary.

Time to start getting real folks. Believing what you want to believe only works when it is credible and has integrity.

[Alfresco]

64. Bernie, Tad and Jeff are all in desperation mode. How low will they go?

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

66. Would like your opinions

This is a hypothetical scenario.

Let's say PBO decides either not to indict Hillary or agrees to pardon her in exchange for her dropping out of the race and releasing her delegates. This would be very similar to Ford/Nixon where in exchange for the pardon, Nixon has to resign in disgrace and leave the political stage. We can argue whether that is fair compensation, but that's how it fell.

Note: I'm going to use round numbers just to make the point.

Now there's the convention and 2500 Hillary delegates (pledged and super) are free agents and Bernie has 2000 delegates. Hillary's old delegates have the power, en masse, to select anyone they want without having to lure Bernie's delegates.

Obviously they would need to select someone with a level of name recognition since election day is so close. I'm immediately eliminating John Kerry, Howard Dean, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi because I can't imagine. That would leave Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren as potentials. I can't conceive of any other possible name.

I believe Hillary's old delegates believe that although they don't need to woo Bernie's delegates for the nomination, they would need to woo them for the general election

Would they:

1) Throw their support behind Bernie and make him the nominee.
2) Pick Biden and then try to explain to Bernie's supporters that Joe is the best chance
3) Pick Warren and claim that although it's not Bernie, it's close enough and she can win

How does this scenario play out? Remember, we are talking about people who presently support Hillary and not Bernie.

[firebrand80]

70. Obama couldn't make such a deal

It's up to the AG.

However, if the SDs for whatever reason feel compelled to move away from Hillary, it would have to be in favor of Bernie. Anyone else and you risk dividing the party.

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

75. Don't be naive

Obama is the boss and it will be his decision what happens. The AG will simply carry out his will. If that AG refuses to carry out his will, he will find a new AG. Google "Saturday Night Massacre".

It will never get to that point though. Ms Lynch will do what she is told.

[FSogol]

77. Translation: I watch so much TV, I can't tell reality from fiction!

I'll give you bonus points for your ridiculous comparison of Obama to the Nixon administration.

You do realize that this is a DEMOCRATIC web forum?

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

80. I'm not sure where you are saying I'm comparing Obama to Nixon, but

If you think the decision to indict the Democratic front-runner on the eve of the convention will be made by the Attorney General, I've got some investment opportunities that may interest you.

The decision of whether or not to indict Hillary will be made by 1 single person and no level of deflection or spin can change that. This is well beyond the paygrade of the Attorney General.

[thesquanderer]

73. 3 things that could sway a super delegate to switch to bernie

1. if he arrives at the convention with more pledged delegates than hillary

2. if polls (including perhaps the dem party's own internal polls) show bernie as being significantly stronger against the republican candidate (who will be known at that time, since the republican convention happens first)

3. if there is any perceived significant threat of legal issues that may arise for hillary between the convention and the general

Any one of those three could possibly persuade someone. Two or all three, even more.

[Fozzledick]

83. Number two is the big one

His goal seems to be getting his delegate count high enough to make that argument.

[beaglelover]

78. These berniebots are delusional!

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

79. Oh come on, play along

If this scenario did come to pass, what do you think Hillary's old delegates would do?

[pat_k]

81. I support Bernie, but think it is a mistake...

... to promote the notion that the superdelegates would overrule the pledged delegate winner.

If the pledged delegate winner doesn't get enough superdelegates to take the nomination, it would fracture the party. That goes both ways. Whether it's superdelegates overruling a Bernie win or vice versa. Promoting the "overrule" notion is likely to backfire.

[Gothmog]

82. Delusion sets in at Camp Sanders

There will be no open convention http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/05/1510862/-Delusion-sets-in-at-Camp-Sanders

No one gets to create their own reality.

Bernie Sanders' campaign manager insisted Tuesday that the independent Vermont senator will win the Democratic nomination over Hillary Clinton at the party's convention this summer.

"I think what this campaign is looking for and what the senator is looking for is going into the convention and coming out with the nomination," Jeff Weaver said on CNN's "New Day."

"When we arrive at the convention, it will be an open convention, likely with neither candidate having a majority of pledged delegates," Weaver told host Chris Cuomo.

There are two candidates. No one else has delegates. By definition, someone will have a majority of pledged delegates. What that candidate won’t have is a majority of all delegates, including the supers. But who cares? The only count that matters is pledged delegates. And if Sanders stages the biggest comeback in anything history to win a majority of pledged delegates? Kudos to him! He will have earned the nomination!

But pretending that 1) we’re going to have a brokered convention, when the math literally says it’s impossible, and 2) pretending that the super delegates would abandon Clinton for him despite his historical and current antipathy toward the Democratic Party is simply delusional.

His campaign can claim all it wants that it can still win the pledged delegate count. It won’t, but let it pretend. But to claim we’re going to have a brokered convention is … wait, now I’m just repeating myself.