2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCan Bernie Sanders Upset Hillary Clinton in New York?
The New YorkerBY John Cassidy
4/10/2016
On the face of it, Hillary Clinton shouldnt have much trouble winning the New York Democratic primary on April 19th. In the 2008 version of this contest, when she was running as a two-term, home-state U.S. senator, she got more than fifty-seven per cent of the vote and defeated Barack Obama by about seventeen percentage points. This time around, Clinton again has a big lead in the polls. A Fox News survey that was released on Sunday showed her getting fifty-three per cent of the vote, and Sanders getting just thirty-seven per cent.
Clinton has Governor Andrew Cuomo campaigning for her, as well as Mayor Bill de Blasio and virtually ever other Democratic leader in New York. She also has the backing of some of the biggest labor unions in the state, including the service-workers union and the teachers unions. And it will be a surprise if any of New Yorks major newspapers dont endorse her.
....snip....
Ten days ago, Sanders held an outdoor rally at a park in the hardscrabble Mott Haven section of the South Bronx. About eighteen thousand people showed up. The crowd was so large that it couldnt entirely fit into the allotted space. Now Sanders is campaigning full-time in New York, seeking to eat into Clintons lead, and drawing on a small army of volunteers.
Normally when you run a campaign, you have a lot of people working for youyou have to drag them places, and you have to pay people to do things, Bill Lipton, the New York director of the progressive Working Families Party, which is supporting Sanders, told me. This is a different type of campaign. There is a movement out there for Bernie Sanders. He has the type of energy weve rarely seen in New York politics, where thousands of people come out for a rally in response to an e-mail. Many of them leave with sheets of paper telling them how to get involved, and the next day they are knocking on doors.
The mobilization isnt restricted to New York City, Lipton said. He cited support for Sanders among environmental activists in the Hudson Valley, and said that an organizational meeting in Buffalowhere Sanders is scheduled to speak on Mondaythat was called at short notice still attracted hundreds of volunteers. State officials have reported an unprecedented surge in last-minute registrations by new voters, which may also owe to the Sanders effect. I think turnout will be high, Kenneth Sherrill, an emeritus professor of political science at the City College of New York, whose memories of state politics go back to the nineteen-sixties, told me. A lot of people who havent voted in primaries before are going to be voting, and that introduces a random factor.....
....big huge snip....
There are still nine days until the vote. Given Clintons local ties, her strength among women and minorities, and the level of institutional support behind her, the odds heavily favor her winning. (According to PredictIt, an online prediction site, the probability of Clinton finishing ahead of Sanders is eighty-nine per cent.) But Sanderss supporters believe that they have momentum on their side. Who would you want to be: the establishment candidate or the candidate of youth and change? Lipton said. Anything can happen here.
Read in full~
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/can-bernie-sanders-upset-hillary-clinton-in-new-york
GO Bernie!!
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)It has no coorrolation with how likely he is to win a State
Vinca
(50,322 posts)The people who stand in line for hours to vote might as well be paid extras on a movie set. Wyoming - Bernie wins by 12 points, ends up with 4 fewer delegates than Hillary.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)Something like this will happen, I hope...
How the Peoples Party Prevailed in 2020
by Robert Reich
MONDAY, MARCH 21, 2016
http://robertreich.org/post/141437490885
Divernan
(15,480 posts)Vinca
(50,322 posts)I would rather have my preferred candidate win or lose based on the votes cast by average voters, not a few hundred elites.
Divernan
(15,480 posts)Send that carpet bagging candidate back to Arkansas, or Illinois, or some posh, One Percent estate in the Hamptons or Martha's Vinyard. I jest about her ever retiring/returning to Arkansas, or suburban Chicagoland, of course. They are not One Percent Enclaves.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)But he won't come close to winning.
jfern
(5,204 posts)Oh, you mean the other kind of upset.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)That means that college kids can't flood the zone in a larger primary and only registered Democrats can participate. That's game over for Sanders.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,169 posts)They are an uptight group.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)Its like dealing with repubs, on so many levels!