Even if Hillary wins New York, How many delegates do you expect 20?

[Csainvestor]

Even if she wins New York fifty-something percent to 40 something percent, how many net delegates are we talking about?

[itsrobert]

1. It doesn't really matter, Bernie has to score a big victory

And that's not going to happen.

[Csainvestor]

2. That's where we disagree

Bernie just has to keep it close, and it looks like he will.

[OhZone]

4. Not if he wants to start catching up.

Oh well.

[grossproffit]

8. It's not about opinions, it's about math.

[Bleacher Creature]

10. How do you disagree with numbers?

I'm really not trying to be snarky, I just don't get it.

[HillareeeHillaraah]

15. No snark here but

Because she's ahead, her delegates get her closer to the finish line. So it's not so much about what she nets overs Sanders, but rather how much closer it gets her to the finish line.

His delegates need to close the gap so for him the emphasis is not how many delegates but rather how many more than Clinton.

[Zynx]

12. Keep it close for what? NY is one of the few chances for him to make up ground

There's only one third of the country left. Even if he wins CA by 10, he nets only 40ish delegates. He needs wins coming up to close the gap.

[brooklynite]

18. You misunderstand; the Sanders folks have given up on "winning" the pledged delegates...

Their thinking is now: if we can keep Clinton from winning outright; we can go to the Convention and convince the SDs to support us on electability.

Hey, it's working for Ted Cruz.

[firebrand80]

19. Let's just put the goalposts on wheels nt

[onehandle]

3. She's already won. NY will be a bonus. nt

[OhZone]

6. Pretty much. n/t

[sasmath]

5. My thinking is if it is 55-45

It's maybe 25 delegates...

[Zynx]

14. Which ends the nomination battle

[sadoldgirl]

7. If she only gets 55% she is losing much

more in her so called "home state" than Bernie
did in his.

Delegate numbers are a different story.

[ChiciB1]

9. I'm A Bernie Supporter, But Don't Know How The Divide Delegated, But

even I don't think Bernie will take NY. Close Primaries are really a bitch. Bernie's name was hardly on the radar when the time closed to change party affiliation and too many young people probably weren't aware of the process. I know down here in Florida we had to make a big effort to re-register or register people. And so many had already voted by absentee by the time we had the Primary.

We've had closed Primaries down here for a really, really long time and STILL it's not something a run of the mill voter is aware of. I know I've complained about closed Primaries for YEARS, but it is what it is. Most people don't like them, but we've never even able to get it changed.

[Zynx]

13. Then you're conceding the nomination.

He can't possibly close the gap without a big win in NY.

[ChiciB1]

17. FWIW, I Can't Read Minds So I Generally Don't Makes Decisions

about what anyone thinks. Carry on.

[Zynx]

11. She doesn't have to pick up anything. 2/3s of the country has already voted.

She's way ahead and just needs to hold roughly where she is.

[Agnosticsherbet]

16. If it is an absolute tie, Sanders has lost his last best hope for the nomintion.

If Sanders wins by less than 57%, he has lost his last best hope for the nomination.

And as to the rest of the States, I bet you can see where I'm going with this.

[Zynx]

20. The basic problem comes down to this: he got blownout in TX and FL

When two of the three most populous states only give you 33% of the vote, that's a problem. NY is the fourth biggest and at best he won't net any delegates out of it. At worst, he'll fall another 20-30 behind. I don't think he'll do any worse than that, but still.

The slew of NE states the week after next looks no better for him. Probably about a wash between them and possibly a small Hillary pick-up. Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia will probably be a small net pick-up for Sanders, but I'm not certain of that. Then there's the Dakotas, which really don't matter, same goes for Montana. Puerto Rico will probably be big for Hillary. NJ will be good for Hillary as well. OR will be a good Bernie state and I see CA being close to a tie, probably leaning Hillary. If you can tell me how this produces a Bernie win, be my guest.

[Agnosticsherbet]

21. I can't see a Sanders win.

[Zynx]

22. Want to work out the mechanics of that?

[Agnosticsherbet]

24. Sorry. I am working on my phone and my fingers do not work

So good.
I agree he can not win.

[geek tragedy]

23. 30-40 delegates. And it takes a big chunk of runway

away from Bernie's plan for takeoff.