Where do you live and what do you think will happen

[brooklynite]

As I wrote in another thread, politics here are complex, and Sanders isn't playing the game successfully.

11 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	I'm a New Yorker and CLINTON will win the NY Primary
	1 (9%)
	I'm a New Yorker and SANDERS will win the NY Primary
	0 (0%)
	I'm NOT a New Yorker and CLINTON will win the NY Primary
	4 (36%)
	I'm NOT a New Yorker and SANDERS will win the NY Primary
	6 (55%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[hrmjustin]

1. No question in my mind Hillary will win here In Brooklyn and NY.

[geek tragedy]

2. Real question is does she beat the spread?

Polling is 11-15 points. I see it as an 18-19 point race.

[hrmjustin]

4. Btw Siena has it 52-42 but they have her winning the suburbs by 19 and the city by 12.

Those numbers seem off.

[geek tragedy]

5. Interesting. I'm using the 2008 primary as the baseline.

2008 was a better predictor for Wisconsin than the polls.

But an 8 point victory is still a back breaker for Sanders, so 10-14 is just fine.

[hrmjustin]

6. I think the Marist is looking most accurate on this race now.

55-41

[geek tragedy]

7. The consistency in the polling is remarkable nt

[Godhumor]

8. I'm guessing there is a certain amount of herding happening

Easiest way to not deal with the complicated NY rules is to build off what other firms are doing.

I think Clinton by 10-20% is a reasonable range for outcomes.

[geek tragedy]

9. I have trouble seeing how he massively underperforms Obama

with black voters but over performs Obama overall by 7-10 points nevertheless.

I also wonder if there are people who ID as registered Democrats but actually aren't.

In the 2008 primary about 10% of exit poll respondents ID'd as independents.

8% wouldn't surprise me. Neither would 21%.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

11. how much would you like to bet?

...

[bigwillq]

3. Not a NYER. I think Clinton will win.

But I do think the race will be closer than some predictions.
Take that for what it's worth. Lol I'm not good at the prediction game.

[Godhumor]

10. Western NY here. I don't think the outcome is in question n/t

[Ron Green]

12. 2016 is a big test for New Yorkers, as well as for all Americans,

and they may yet fail it. Putting a fearful trust in a fear-based system is an easy thing to do, but hard to live with - as we're learning every day.