Gravis Marketing: IOWA Obama +4 (Obama 50, Romney 46)

[TroyD]

Friday, October 26, 2012

President Obama currently leads Governor Romney by 4 percentage points in Iowa, 50 to 46 percent.

Governor Romney leads President Obama with independent voters by a margin of 48 to 36 percent. Both candidates received more than 90 percent support from members of their own party.

There is a wide gender gap in this survey. Romney leads by 18 percent among men while President Obama leads by 23 percent with women.

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 517 likely voters in Iowa October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/iowa-public-opinion-poll-shows-obama.html

[scheming daemons]

1. Gravis isnt a real poll... but i like the narrative this advances

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Endorse This Powerful Post/nt

[Jennicut]

10. Pretty much.

Gravis thinks other pollsters will have Obama up in Iowa and they picked a number. 4 sounded good to them I guess. At least it will bump Obama's average up in IA in RCP. The right wingers that frequent the site will see Obama with 2.3% average lead there and then hopefully go cry.

[WI_DEM]

2. I thought Grantcart had several stories on DU about this being a fraud pollster?

I mean the result is fine, but I still don't trust them.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021579317

[Maximumnegro]

17. Troy will post anything

[aaaaaa5a]

3. In other words the President leads by 6-7 in Iowa, and his midwest firewall holds.

The path to 270

Option #1-Ohio+Wisconsin+Iowa

Option #2-Ohio+Wisconsin+Nevada



Obama leads in all 4.

[abumbyanyothername]

13. Here's another option

PA, MI, WI, NV, NH, IA and CO . . . .

And that makes OH (and VA and FL and NC) irrelevant.

[Arkana]

4. If Gravis could only get the margin to Obama +4, then I wonder what the real gap is.

[fugop]

6. Is the Gravis guy running scared?

Seems to me this fly-by-night huckster must be getting nervous about being outed as a fraud. His last couple polls seems much better for Obama. He still sucks, but since people like Nate are using him in their averages, I'll take it.

[Maximumnegro]

16. Trying to look legit

[Dawgs]

7. Doubt it because it's Gravis, but it might be the fact that we are getting close to the election.

The pollsters don't want to look biased so they need to be as accurate as possible on election day. This poll, and others, may be an early sign of pollsters not wanting to show their agenda.

[bushisanidiot]

8. Which means Obama is probably up by 6 - 8 points.

Gravis is trying to keep it with their margin of error, which is huge.

[John2]

9. I have

thrown all the Republican Pollsters out whether they are positive or not. They have no credibility to me now. I'm looking at all the Democratic and Independent Pollsters. I also don't trust likely voters models either. I think people are going to vote.

I also think this country is divided. I don't believe swing voters at all. I believe voters reflects the values of the people they vote for. I think they are all interest groups. Some issues are just more important than others to different groups. You can make Polls get the results that you want. Pollsters are bias too.

[reflection]

11. This guy is a proven fraud.

If he is posting pro-Obama numbers now, it's only to take the heat off. I don't want to come across as a scold, but please don't post any Gravis numbers here. You could bust out some old D&D multi-sided dice and roll them all at once to come up with an equally valid number.

[bluestateguy]

12. Silver counts them, but also adds a House bias

So his model will treat that poll at more like Obama +7.

[TexasCPA]

14. They also show Obama up 1 in NV today

Con artist trying to win our trust.

[WI_DEM]

15. Gravis also just put out a shit poll showing Romney up by 8 in NC

with nothing about 'early voting' stats, etc. This is why I don't buy Gravis. I can't believe that Romney is up by 8 and other polls don't show that, too. But that will be the poll the media will harp about.

[Cali_Democrat]

18. That's what they do

They'll put out a horseshit poll, and then quickly try to cover their ass with another poll.