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The surge continues in RAND tracking poll. Obama now leads Romney by 6.3 points. (Original Post) Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 OP
Great News! Correcting my headline. writes3000 Oct 2012 #1
The chart is actually updated. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #2
Thank you! writes3000 Oct 2012 #3
Hold your cursor over the symbol on the littlemissmartypants Oct 2012 #10
I wonder if Rand is catching the RV Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #4
Well, the Obama voters' intention to vote seems to be climbing while... writes3000 Oct 2012 #5
Here... A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 #6
Rand is leading indicator imgbitepolitic Oct 2012 #7
Thanks for posting. SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #8
Looks like Obama went up, but that Romney's decline has leveled off TroyD Oct 2012 #9
Taliban MJJP21 Oct 2012 #11
Anything over 50 is good enough for me. DCBob Oct 2012 #12

writes3000

(4,734 posts)
1. Great News! Correcting my headline.
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 04:07 AM
Oct 2012

I saw this poll update on DailyKos and I've spent the last 20 minutes trying to figure out where they saw the 10/26 update. I'm stumped.

Great news though!

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
4. I wonder if Rand is catching the RV
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 04:16 AM
Oct 2012

vs LV. So those who actually will vote versus those the other pollster think will vote.

writes3000

(4,734 posts)
5. Well, the Obama voters' intention to vote seems to be climbing while...
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 04:21 AM
Oct 2012

The Romney voters' intention to vote seems to be holding steady.

I wonder if/where they factor in the "who do you think will win" percentages into their analysis. I can't figure that out.

A-Schwarzenegger

(15,596 posts)
6. Here...
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 04:29 AM
Oct 2012

"It is also important to note that the predictions combine the percent chance of voting for a candidate with the percent chance that a respondent will actually vote. For example, if someone says in response to the first question that he or she has a 50-percent chance of actually voting, then this person's response to the question of who they will vote for gets a “weight” of 50 percent in the calculation of our prediction (which is then further weighted by the percent chance that he or she says that they are likely to vote for their chosen candidate)."

(Second paragraph of "Election Forecast" page.)

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
9. Looks like Obama went up, but that Romney's decline has leveled off
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 05:09 AM
Oct 2012

The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll

October 26 (Obama + 6.35)

Obama - 50.93

Romney - 44.58

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

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