2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe surge continues in RAND tracking poll. Obama now leads Romney by 6.3 points.
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecastObama's at 50.93, which is the highest percentage he's been at in the poll.
![](du4img/smicon-reply-new.gif)
writes3000
(4,734 posts)I saw this poll update on DailyKos and I've spent the last 20 minutes trying to figure out where they saw the 10/26 update. I'm stumped.
Great news though!
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)writes3000
(4,734 posts)littlemissmartypants
(23,200 posts)line in the graph and it gives you the date. LMSP
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)vs LV. So those who actually will vote versus those the other pollster think will vote.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)The Romney voters' intention to vote seems to be holding steady.
I wonder if/where they factor in the "who do you think will win" percentages into their analysis. I can't figure that out.
A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)"It is also important to note that the predictions combine the percent chance of voting for a candidate with the percent chance that a respondent will actually vote. For example, if someone says in response to the first question that he or she has a 50-percent chance of actually voting, then this person's response to the question of who they will vote for gets a weight of 50 percent in the calculation of our prediction (which is then further weighted by the percent chance that he or she says that they are likely to vote for their chosen candidate)."
(Second paragraph of "Election Forecast" page.)
imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)Vis a vis state polls correct?
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,300 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll
October 26 (Obama + 6.35)
Obama - 50.93
Romney - 44.58
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election
MJJP21
(329 posts)Anyone voting for the party that believes rape is the will of god is voting for the Taliban.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think Romney is toast.