2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumReuters/Ipsos poll shows Obama surge: up 3 points among LVs, up 12 points among RVs
Romney lost support among Republicans and independents. The President had been constant at +4 among registered voters until yesterday.
Obama surge!!! Counter the MSM's pro-Mitt narrative.
Daily Election Tracking: 10.25.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12122
Daily Election Tracking: 10.27.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12132
Daily Election Tracking: 10.28.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12133
budkin
(6,713 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Would this man lie to you?
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,018 posts)As of October 28, 3:00PM EDT:
Obama: 299 Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +2.04%
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 89%, Bayesian Prediction 97%
http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/
renate
(13,776 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)ffr
(22,671 posts)11% of Republicans say they're voting for Obama.
Outstanding!
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)12 among RV, but only 3 among likely voters? I'll take a victory ... but this is why the election is close. It's because a great deal of Obama supporters are still sitting this election out.
My hope is that there is a healthy middle, so, Obama actually leads 50-42.
Frumious B
(312 posts)It's entirely possible that many voters who aren't "likely" to pollsters will vote. That's part of what the ground game is for, especially with early voting. Also, I'd think turnout will be higher in swing states where people know their vote is crucial to the outcome which would help account for the disparity between the swing state polls and the national polls.
ItsTheMediaStupid
(2,800 posts)I don't think the election will be all that close.
We carry every state we carried in 2008 except Indiana.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I cannot imagine a registered Dem saying they arent going to vote in a state like OH or FL or VA, etc.
I hadn't thought of it being different from state to state. That makes perfect sense. Whew!
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)Samuel Jackson style!
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)I thought so because that's what all the networks are saying -- you know, the ones that sell all those ads to candidates.
Blue Idaho
(5,052 posts)Would NEVER bias their reporting just to generate more income for the networks... Right?
Sockpuppets not journalists.
mzmolly
(51,003 posts)an edge.
IPSOS hasn't been included since early/mid September.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)2008 was a one-time event where the country once-and-for-all ended racism and made up for all of our national sins. But Obama wasn't a "real" president -- you know, he was different somehow.
And in 2012 we get back to the normal sort of election that we all are much more comfortable with.
That's what all the polls are saying. If they don't say that, then they must not really be polls so we'll just leave them out.
demosincebirth
(12,541 posts)consider a christian and not for Obama who is one. What does that tell you.?
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)and those who aren't racists are authoritarians who instinctively fall into line with whatever the corporatists tell them to do.
And the fundies are the worst of both groups (racists and authoritarians.)
Don't try to reason through it. Their Jesus was a dark-skinned Jew. It doesn't make any logical sense.
demosincebirth
(12,541 posts)BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)Than this:
demosincebirth
(12,541 posts)David Zephyr
(22,785 posts)!
ProSense
(116,464 posts)PsychProfessor
(204 posts)I am just waiting for some positive numbers for the President to knock Romney down off of his +0.9.....
RCP does not use online polls.