Obama with a wide lead in new poll of Ohio's early voters

[BainsBane]

According to a new PPP poll. 36% of Ohioans say they have already voted, and 63% voted for the President compared to 36% for Romney. Romney leads 53/45 among those who have not yet voted, but the President is up by four among all voters.

So much for Ro-mentum.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html

[fleur-de-lisa]

1. It is now officially 'NO-mentum! - eom

[Life Long Dem]

3. I heard that last Thursday from a DU'er

Lets hope the media catches on now then.

[ffr]

2. Democrats further unifying around Obama 88/10

88% support, 10% are undecided

Romney support softens with independents, 50/46. That's down a tick from 49/42 last week.

What a pity for RR.

[BainsBane]

5. Thank goodness

The last two nights I've had nightmares about the election. I'm glad they are just a manifestation of my fears.

[VMA131Marine]

4. Romney would have to win remaining voters

by 60/40 over the President to get a 51% majority in Ohio and win the state according to this poll.

[LisaL]

6. That assumes every remaining voter is going to vote.

And that is probably not likely.
Obama build up a nice lead in OH.

[mgcgulfcoast]

7. awesome news!!

[bemildred]

8. Dayyum.

.63 * .36 == ~ .226 already voted for Obama.

.36 * .36 == ~ .129 already voted for Rmoney.

(.129 + .226 == ~ .36, yes?)

.226 - .129 = .096, a lead of 9.6% of the electorate NOW.

If the 53/45 numbers hold, and everybody remaining votes, then Rmoney gains .08 * .64 == .0512, 5.12 % of the electorate.

9.6 - 5.12 == ~ 4.5% win for Obama.

But there has to be a lot of hand-waving behind those numbers.

[DLnyc]

16. Obama likely to win by at least 51.5% to 47%

63% of 36% of electorate voted for Obama already = 22.68% of electorate voted for Obama already

45% of the remaining 64% of electorate intend to vote for Obama = 28.80% of electorate intending to vote for Obama

22.68% + 28.80% = 51.48% of electorate have or will vote for Obama, if votes follow current preferences. (More if even proportions of Obama and Romney supporters fail to vote, since O is lagging in this group)

Similarly,
36% of 36% of the electorate say they voted for Romney already = 12.96% of electorate voted for Romney

53% of the remaining 64% of electorate intends to vote for Romney = 33.92% of electorate intending to vote for Romney

12.96% + 33.92% = 46.88% of electorate have or will vote for Romney, again if votes follow current preferences. (This time less if even proportions of O an R supporters fail to vote, since R is leading in this group.

So, roughly, those poll numbers imply 51.5 to 47.0 lead for Obama, if future votes are in the same proportion as current preferences and all 64% remaining vote -- and better than that if equal proportions of both groups fail to vote (or get their vote counted).

I'm happy with these numbers, I hope others are!

[bemildred]

22. Yes, that's it. All conditioned by turnout, but it seems clear the electorate is motivated.

At least the Democratic part of it.

[flamingdem]

9. poof!

the genie just made Romentum vanish!

[cheezmaka]

10. Go Romney!

[lunatica]

24. Here's a smilie to add to the ones you posted

<-------- Romney

[cheezmaka]

27. LOL

THANKS

[Hutzpa]

11. Looking at this logic

Romney will still be leading 53/45 among those who have not voted with 20% remaining.

[BlueStreak]

12. Simple arithmetic: Romney needs about an 11% spread on all the remaining ballots

and the poll says he has only an 8% advantage overall.

That's not an impossible scenario for Romney yet, but if this holds up for a few more days, Ohio will become mathematically impossible for Romney before "election day"..

[Tribetime]

14. 27%lead with 36% in..he would have to get at least 14% more of remaining

[BlueStreak]

15. Thanks, I was just doing a quick eyeball estimate

And notice that the PPP numbers have only an 8% Romney lead among those that have not voted.

If this same Obama spread holds us by the time that 50% have voted, I will feel really good about Ohio.

Ohio is my biggest concern because we know from history that they are willing and able to do massive election fraud there. We need a 10% win to be safe. I figure we'll lose Florida for the same reason.

I don't see places like Virginia and Colorado as being so prone to election fraud.

[deepen915]

13. good, but still worried.

i'm just worried about some election fraud... They will try to steal Ohio! we have to keep the momentum going! I hope all these early votes are counted!

[OldDem2012]

17. So, how do we REALLY know "Romney leads 53/45 among those who have not yet voted"?....

...Is it because the polling is indicating that MAY be possible, or is somebody using ESP to find out exactly what voters are thinking?

Nope...not buying it.

[BainsBane]

20. It's a poll

If that part is invalid, so is the rest.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. hmmm. Romney gained a point in election day voters

[BainsBane]

21. The point is Romney trails by 4

among all voters. This poll simply distinguishes between those who have already voted and those who haven't.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. right, but the movement of those who have not voted yet is the most important thing with

the time left

[BainsBane]

25. as more people vote for Obama

the percentage of Romney supporters will increase.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

26. Duh

Sorry, you're right, of course !

I made a spreadsheet and just for a rough idea, ran the numbers based on vote totals for OH in 2008....Last update - O 51% $ 47%

[ffr]

19. Oh yeah, absolutely. Full speed ahead with GOTV.

It's hard to stop a moving train like this.

CRUSH THE GOP.