Poll Summaries: 10/28 (evening)

[Chichiri]

From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," and is expressed in a scale from 0 to 1, so 0.937, for instance, means 93.7%. "unch" means unchanged from last report. Date of last update is given if at least one day old and if time of update is known.

[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 332 (unch from 10/27)

University of Illinois U-C: O 291 (+3.5); p(RE)=0.953 (+.016)

Electoral-vote.com: O 284, R 235, T 19 (unch)

Huffington Post: O 277, R 206, T 55 (unch)

FiveThirtyEight: O 296.6 (+1.1); p(RE)=0.746 (+.01)

Princeton: O 300 (+1); p(RE)=0.90-0.97 (+.01-+0)

DeSart/Holbrook: O 281; p(RE)=0.8653 (-.0048) (10/27)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,352.00.

[courseofhistory]

1. I would add...

291 O
247 R

http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/index.html

284 O
245 R

http://electoral-vote.com/

281 O
257 R

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/

Daily Trends Chance of Winning


7Obama

76.9%

Romney

22.0%

Tie

1.1%

http://www.270towin.com/simulation/2012_daily_trends/

Hover over graph to see daily %

291 O

247 R

http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/election12/index.html





Tie

1.1%

[pointsoflight]

2. You scored with that bet.

[BainsBane]

3. 359 for Robme?

[flamingdem]

4. Where's the CNN poll?

[Chichiri]

6. These are averages of state polls; CNN doesn't do that. They do their own polls.

And then call them too close to call. Unless Romney's ahead, then he's going to be the next President, we'll discuss the implications of a Romney presidency right after the break.

[progree]

5. My little tracking system 10/15 -- 10/29 4 polls

[font face="courier new"]
4 electoral vote count websites. "Spread-ObamaTotal" -- For example, the first entry of the first one, HuffingtonPost on 10/15 1256 AM, is "47-253" meaning the spread in favor of Obama is 47 (Obama minus Romney). 253 is the number of projected Obama electoral votes. The underscores are just for keeping the spacing -- ignore them as much as possible.

Date-Time_____HuffingtonPost__electoral-vote___TalkingPointsMemo___RearClearPolitics
10/15_1256a____47-253___________51-290____________44-253_____________10-201
10/16__403a____75-281___________51-290____________24-247_____________10-201
10/18_139a_____71-277___________38-277____________25-247_____________10-201
10/20_1138a____71-277___________38-286____________31-259_____________-5-201
10/23_227a_____80-271___________51-286____________38-233_____________-5-201
10/26_930a_____80-271___________80-271____________70-261_____________20-201
10/29_100a_____71-277___________49-284____________59-265_____________20-201
[/font]
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/

If someone knows of a way to make a table -- without replacing spaces with underscores or some other characters -- or without prepending some html string to the beginning or end of every line -- please let me know. In the above I'm wrapping the table with the {font face="courier new"} .. {/font} to make the font fixed-width (replace the curly braces with square brackets).

If I want to so away with the underscores, I can prepend and append each line as shown below (replace the curly braces with square brackets).
{div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"}line1{/div}