POLITICO/GWU O: 49, R: 48

[piechartking]

Got this from somebody on DailyKos, who got it from somebody on Free Republic. They are shitting their pants...hahaha.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct29_questionnaire.html

[Drunken Irishman]

1. This is fun...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2951744/posts

I don’t like seeing O up a point in battle ground states. Should we worry?

...

It is not a battleground/state poll, it is a national poll called “Battleground”, and yes I am very concerned about it because Brit Hume spoke confidently on Sunday morning about this upcoming poll and that it would show Romney with a 5 pt lead - instead it shows Obama leading 49-48. Last week this same poll showed Romney leading 49-47. They are a very reputable polling firm which adds to my concern.

...

I am not at all like Steelfish! However I am concerned (as others here will be) that Brit Hume announced it on FNS today that it would show Romney +5, and it missed by 6 points (as it now shows Obama +1). I sure as hell hope I am worrying about nothing, but these guys have a solid track record over the last 5 Presidential elections:

Look I hope I am wrong. I absolutely despise Obama!! But hearing (and reading in the link/interview with Ed Goeas) that the poll was expected to come in at +5 for Romney, but comes in a +1 for Obama is NOT A GOOD THING.

It's starting to set in over there that Obama's gonna win!

[piechartking]

4. Yes, the consternation and hand-wringing practically jumped off the screen...

It's funny to read. And to go in thinking you'd lead by 5, only to find out that Obama is leading. Well all I got to say is:

[Cali_Democrat]

25. BWHAHAHAHA

[TroyD]

2. Has the poll officially been released yet?

Or is it not coming out until the morning?

Politico's previous polls have leaned towards Romney, so it could be a good sign for Obama. (to be completely objective we have to remember that it could be statistical noise. )

[piechartking]

3. Couldn't find it anywhere else online...

except for on DailyKos, which linked to FR. However, I don't think they would have a reason to psyche themselves out, so I'm guessing it's real. (I'm not a journalist, so I guess I don't have to abide by the strictest checking-sources standards)

[imgbitepolitic]

5. Wait

They make adjustments to raw numbers. Dont everyone get too excited yet.

[cash__whatiwant]

8. whats that mean

[leftynyc]

6. Interesting poll

Seems solid in terms of representation. I like that 54% vs 34% think Pres Obama is going to win the election. People want to vote for a winner. Anything that freaks the freepers is dandy with me.

[NewsCenter28]

7. Super sweet news!!

This is what-like a 4-5 point total net swing? President Obama seems well on the path to victory baby! This poll freaked me out last Monday and makes me overjoyed this morning!

[leftynyc]

9. It's going to freak Joe Scar

out and as my office is closed for Frankenstorm, I get to watch. Those politico guys are always on that show so it'll be reported early - I usually only see the first 15 minutes of that show. It'll be interesting to see how it's reported across the media.

[TroyD]

10. As someone asked above though . . .

Were those raw numbers that could be adjusted overnight and end up different this morning?

[leftynyc]

11. I wouldn't know that

I followed the link to the pdf in the first comment. I didn't see raw numbers.

[leftynyc]

13. I'll feel better when

this is reported on the news. The day I trust the pubs, pigs will be flying past my window.

[piechartking]

14. Hey - feel better.

http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html

[leftynyc]

16. I do indeed

I want to see this reported widely this morning. Let's see how the press handles it. Morning Joe always has the politico guys on so I know it will be there. I do wonder where the freeper person got the info so early and who scammed Hume that it would show somethign so different. I did see someone ask if they will play with the registed voters/likely voter screens.

[blazeKing]

15. Conducted Oct 22 - 25

Obama leading among people who have already voted. Romney only up 1 among those "Very Likely" to vote. Enthusiasm gap? Nosso much.

[regnaD kciN]

17. There's something very odd about the internals of this poll...

O.K., we have the top-line of O - 49% R - 48%. But we also have:

Direction of country?
Right direction - 37%
Wrong direction - 56%

Generic Congressional ballot?
Republican - 46%
Democrat - 45%

Candidate favorability?
Obama - 51%/47%
Romney - 52%/43%

Obama job approval?
Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 49%

Vote to re-elect Obama?
Yes - 46%
No/Consider Someone Else - 51%

Political position?
Conservative - 58%
Moderate - 2%
Liberal - 36%

Party affiliation?
Republican - 41%
Independent - 15%
Democratic - 43%

I'm trying to figure out how Obama would come out ahead in a sample group with a conservative/liberal split of 58%/36% (and with only 2% moderates?), who were slightly more favorably inclined toward Romney than Obama, and who thought the country was going in the wrong direction by a margin of almost 20%. (Given those three results, I could see why Fox was predicting the results would be R+5.) For that matter, I'm also having a hard time reconciling the political position split with the one for party affiliation.

I'm not saying this isn't genuine, but there's something about these numbers that simply doesn't make sense.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

19. I don't know about those polled here, but I regularly take polls from YouGov, and I have been

complaining to them about that right/wrong direction question on the comments section of every poll for years now.

I've said that any answer of "wrong direction" will be taken to mean the respondent thinks what President Obama is doing is wrong, but that if I were to answer "wrong direction" I would be referring to things the RW is doing to the country. (Knowing this, I always answer "right direction," but I'd rather not have to lie.

In the past few months I've been saying that, in a addition to the former, it is now a totally ridiculous question because how can we possibly say with a major election so close.

I often wonder how many "wrong direction" people are also referring to things going wrong because of the RW.

[beac]

21. You beat me to it.

"Right direction/Wrong track" is WAY too vague and easy to interpret in wildly varying ways. Two people could answer that question differently but MEAN the same thing.

If they are going to ask it, there needs to be a follow up "Who do you credit for the direction? Congress, the Senate, the President, etc.?" and that answer needs to be reported WITH the "R/W" results like:

Right direction/President 55%
Wrong direction/President 45%
Right direction/Congress 10%
Wrong direction/Congress 90%

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

22. That's almost exactly what I'd been saying in my post-poll comments previously. But, you're right.

The question would be valid close to an election if they handled it that way. Otherwise, the polls are either purposely or mindlessly biased against President Obama.

It boggles my mind that no one in the media seems to have brought up this point. Obviously, I may have missed it, but I haven't heard this addressed at all.

The good news would be, however, that the mistaken assumption, reflected in the poll results reported, that all the "Wrong Direction" respondents are against President Obama could mean some unanticipated votes for him.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

24. Maybe they know they oversampled pugs and adjusted the results accordingly

nt

[imgbitepolitic]

18. Add 2% to that number

Obama will a bit more than 51%.

[TroyD]

20. Excerpt:

Battleground Tracking Poll: Obama retakes lead

MARION, Ohio — With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.

Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.

SNIP

Obama leads among women by 11 points, 54 to 43 percent. The gap had narrowed to six points a week ago, but much of that survey was conducted before the GOP nominee’s comment at the second debate that he had reviewed “binders full of women” as part of a gender diversity effort as Massachusetts governor. Obama and his allies have also been hitting full swing at Romney as an enemy of womens’ rights on abortion and contraception in their advertising and speeches.

The president is now closer in standing to where he’s been the last few months, and the swing is due to female support. On every issue and question of character, women now favor Obama over Romney.

Men, meanwhile, support Romney over Obama by 12 points, 55 to 43 percent.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986.html

[mzmolly]

23. Especially interesting, given they polled more R's and those who lean R.