Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll: Florida I-4 voters back Romney 51-45

[smorkingapple]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459

It has been a fundamental rule of Florida politics for decades: Statewide campaigns are won and lost on the I-4 corridor.
Today that celebrated swing-voter swath stretching from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach is poised to deliver Florida's 29 electoral votes to Mitt Romney.
An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the Interstate 4 corridor finds Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

"Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. "Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney's going to win Florida.''

"Being that this is I-4, the Florida battleground, the region of the state that usually tells you how it's going to come out, for Romney to be up 6 points right now … they should be able to call Florida as soon as the polls close in Pensacola if they do their exit polling right," Coker said.

Yeah right.....

This is a Mason-Dixon poll which has been Republican leaning all cycle but Nate Silver still says they're a good firm.

[blazeKing]

1. Mason-Dixon

Where our lowest poll numbers seem to always come from (besides Rass).

[liberal N proud]

2. Guess they gave up on the High Speed Rail system that the Republican Governor shot down that Obama

supported.

[doc03]

3. The Morning Joe crew was having an orgasm about that poll, one in

Ohio and another one in Virginia and the DMR. According to them Obama is pretty much finished.

[doc03]

4. Why are the seniors voting for Romney? Is it the

$716 billion lie or is it I got mine f--- everyone else.

[ProSense]

5. Absolute bullshit!

"Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida...they should be able to call Florida as soon as the polls close in Pensacola if they do their exit polling right"

Yeah right! Anytime a pollster is out shilling for Republicans, it should be a sign.

Nate Silver:

Mason-Dixon is a strong polling firm, but their results have been more Republican-leaning than the consensus in Minnesota and most other states.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/oct-27-minnesota-moonlights-as-swing-state-but-ohio-and-virginia-are-more-crucial/

Nate on the previous Mason-Dixon Florida poll:

The Florida poll, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a good polling firm, showed Mr. Romney with a lead and was a helpful reminder of this. Mr. Obama probably does not trail in Florida by seven points. Some other polls published this week showed him with a small lead there. But there is reason to think that he has become the underdog, since Mr. Obama led in Florida by two or three points before the debates and because Mr. Romney’s bounce since then has been a little larger than that. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight forecast had flipped to calling Mr. Romney a slight favorite in Florida a couple of days ago.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation

The polling firm may be "good," but the poll is bunk!

Mason-Dixon is notoriously pro-Republican.

The previous poll showed Romney winning Hispanics 46 to 44, which is similar to the lead they gave McCain in October 2008.

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll: October 20 through October 21, 2008

<...>

Republican John McCain has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Florida. Statewide, 46% of voters currently support McCain, while 45% back Obama, 2% are for other candidates and 7% remain undecided. Obama held a similarly slim 48%-46% lead two weeks ago.

<...>

In the key Tampa Bay region, McCain now has a 47%-44% lead, reversing Obama’s 48%-44% advantage from early October. The other regions of the state continue to follow their historical patterns, with Obama holding a wide 58%-32% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (56%-35%), Central Florida (53%-39%) and Southwest Florida (54%-38%).

Obama continues to run stronger among Democrats, women, those under 35, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 65, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 47%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters.

McCain still has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (51%-49%), while Obama’s negatives are a bit higher than McCain’s (37%-33%).

- more -

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081022_Fla_Mason-Dixon.pdf

Poll: Hispanics in Florida favor President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney, 61-31

The Hispanic support mirrors other Florida surveys that show Obama with a large lead among this crucial and growing segment of the Florida electorate.

By Marc Caputo

Hispanic voters in Florida heavily favor President Obama, strongly back his immigration positions and are highly enthusiastic about voting...according to the survey of 400 registered Florida Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for liberal immigration policies.

Obama pulls 61 percent Hispanic support compared to 31 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, the poll showed....this 30-point margin is the largest Obama lead to date.

<...>

But the number of Republican Hispanics has only grown 12 percent, while the number of Democratic Hispanics have increased 60 percent and no-party-affiliation Hispanic voters increased 50 percent. NPA Hispanics now outnumber Republican Hispanics in Florida.

And Hispanics are energized about voting as well, with 70 percent saying their “very enthusiastic” about voting...That’s welcome news to the Obama campaign, which has watched its support slip among non-white Hispanic whites. Obama lost the white vote 42-56 percent to John McCain in 2008 in Florida, but won Hispanics 57-42.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/04/v-fullstory/3034352/poll-hispanics-in-florida-favor.html

[WI_DEM]

6. Mason-Dixon--whose final Ohio poll in '08 gave McCain Ohio

[Jennicut]

10. Did it really?

Last edited Mon Oct 29, 2012, 01:01 PM - Edit history (1)

Now that is some bad polling since Obama won it by over 4.

[WI_DEM]

12. Yep, their last poll had McCain up by 2 in Ohio.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. We'll See What Happens

Florida was always going to be a tough nut. It has a five point Republican lean. When Obama was winning nationally by 7 % in 08 he only won FL by 2%.

[OldDem2012]

8. I'll skip the propaganda and wait for the results on Election Day. nt.

[ksoze]

9. Wasserman-Shultz says not true to Chuck Todd

Says Dems ahead in early voting, surpassing repub absentee lead. Does not buy the I-4 meme and says we will take I-$ and Florida.

[writes3000]

11. I love her. She is fierce!

[NCarolinawoman]

13. and Chuck Todd kept arguing.....

"But, but but, whah!!!"

He did not want to hear anything that Wasserman-Schultz had to say.

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. By far the oddest thing I've ever heard a pollster say:

" they should be able to call Florida as soon as the polls close in Pensacola if they do their exit polling right,"

Um, what? Why should he care about that? What a strange statement.