A nonpartisan statistical approach to Rasmussen data

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Today I describe how we address pollster heterogeneity. Along the way I will also answer (1) why our state probabilities appear more confident than other aggregators, and (2) why the EV distribution at right is so spiky.

It is well known that pollsters vary in their methods. The American Association of Public Opinion Researchers has established common standards of practice and encouraged transparency, driven in part by Mark Blumenthal of Pollster (our data source). But poll-sniffers aficionados know that Rasmussen Opinion’s results consistently trend more Republican than other organizations.

Differences like this present a challenge to poll aggregators. An obvious solution is to estimate the size of each pollster’s bias, then subtract it. However, this generates three new problems: (1) Who is the neutral reference point? Gallup? Quinnipiac? Rasmussen? (2) What to do about pollsters who do very few polls? (3) What if the pollster changes methods mid-season?

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/06/a-nonpartisan-statistical-approach-to-rasmussen-data/

[speedoo]

1. k,r and bookmarked. Nt