The Path to 270

[courseofhistory]

The path to 270

Where Do We Stand Now?

The popular vote polls are all well and good, but in the end, don't matter. In reality, only 538 people get to vote for President--the presidential electors. As we have been pointing out since June 4th, if Obama wins the states the Democrats have won five times in a row, which seems quite likely, he has a base of 242 electoral votes. He also seems likely to win Nevada and New Mexico, bringing him to 253. How might he get the remaining 17? The scenarios are below. The swing states being fought over and the EVs are: Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).

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Romney's job is to make sure that none of these scenarios hold. This means he must win Florida and Ohio and probably North Carolina. He can lose Virginia, provided that he wins every other swing state. But even if he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, he is still not home free. Even under these circumstances, he needs to win one of Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he manages to win one of the normally blue states, like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, he gets other routes to 270, but these seem unlikely.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct29.html#item-2

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. The math just plain sucks for Romney

He's going to have to have a VERY good night next Tuesday or he won't pull it off. He's going to have cover the US in a sea of red. Odds are this is not likely to happen. If he isn't leading in most of the states by now in most polls (and he's not), then I don't see people suddenly changing their mind next Tuesday.

[blue-kite]

3. Agree with that. Romney going to have to have a two point shift across the board (based on current

polls).
Only going to win if he wins big, and this is increasingly unlikely as the undecideds (silly people) become a smaller and smaller demographic.
Cheers

[RosedaleGuy]

2. Ohio main target. Colorado + Iowa + NH backup plan

I think that first debate fumble cost us Florida. We have to focus on Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and NH. If Ohio falls the other three will carry us home.

Everything is so close that the outcome is going to come down to the ground game.

[amuse bouche]

4. It's just shocking to me

that this poser gets so much support.

And thank you for making the numbers so simple to understand