Great news in new NC Poll.... All tied at 45/45. Game on...

[blue-kite]

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/102912_PollExecutiveSummaryAndData.pdf

I particularly liked the comment that the 'youth' is started to get excited about voting, which bodes well.
As a youth of 42 years of age, I approve and endorse this message!

[mnhtnbb]

1. Dems have cast 281,606 more votes than Repubs to date in NC.

See my thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251171317

[democrat_patriot]

2. Does the 'tie' take into account the overwhelming Dem's early vote ?

[blue-kite]

4. It may well do, since it specifically states it included asking those who already voted... for their

choice. So yes; I think we're saying its still dead tight, but swinging in our favour.

[John2]

3. This Poll

discredits the Republican Polls like Gravis Marketing and supports the other Polls. Civitas here in North Carolina is the only Republican Poll had it as a tossup. This Elon Poll is independent and has a significant amount of responders. North Carolina can go either way and it depends on the GOTV. It is 2008 all over.

[VirginiaTarheel]

5. By Sunday evening, over 1.5 million NC voters had already voted, which is over a third of entire

2008 vote. 29 percent of early voters thus far are African AMerican, an astounding number!

[John2]

9. And

there are still over one million votes left in the tank from the African American community. The exact number that has already voted is a little over 400,000. So there is plenty more votes to be had.

[VirginiaTarheel]

6. NC ROCKS! The vote!

[John2]

7. I can tell

you right now that I voted last Friday right on the campus of North Carolina Central University in the Student Union too. Students have easy access to early voting. Everybody I saw was for President Obama. That is a clear example of part of his ground game and organization in Durham. His organization is also apparent at other campuses in the Triangle. African American youth will have a powerful say in who wins North Carolina as other college students. UNC has a good operation.

[Lex]

8. Go Eagles!

[VirginiaTarheel]

10. more NC internals

RACE & GENDER

Levels of support for both candidates are characterized by the race of North Carolina likely voters as well.

White voters: 59 percent Romney / 33 percent Obama
Black voters: 88 percent Obama / 2 percent Romney
Other: 47 percent Obama / 33 percent Romney

“The findings here suggest that if African Americans and young voters turn out as they did in 2008 this will be a very close election. From August to October we found levels of excitement for both groups increasing,” Fernandez said. “Survey results and official statistics suggest that black turnout is on pace to match 2008 numbers. The youth vote is harder to predict and their excitement about the election still lags behind most other groups.”

More than half of all male likely voters support Romney over Obama (51-39 percent), and women support Obama over Romney (51-40 percent).

“Although there doesn't seem to be a gender gap in voter enthusiasm or turnout, the gender gap in support for the two major party candidates is as large as ever, with men and women almost perfectly mirroring each other,” Fernandez said.

Among all subgroups of women, only those who are married are more likely to vote for Romney. Single, divorced and widowed women all show more support for Obama.

[John2]

11. Virginia Tarheel

from what I can see in the early voting statistics so far, Romney is only getting an estimated less than 2 percent of the African American votes so far. That indicates less support than it was for John McCain and less then the Polls indicate for Romney. If it continues, that is a sign of bad news for Romney and overstating the actual support from Blacks in the Polls. They had Romney getting an average of 10 percent and Gravis Marketing even had it as high as 15 percent. That should have presented a red flag for this Poll. That is why I'm calling out this particular Pollster. It leaves me to believe he was cooking up the numbers.