Are We Seeing Strong Movement in Obama's Direction?

[Doctor Jack]

A question for those people that watch the polls closer than I do, are we now seeing a real trend back towards Obama? Over the past few weeks we definitely saw a halt in Romney's momentum from the first debate and slow, steady trend back towards Obama to the point where he clearly had the advantage. However, from the little I have seen it feels like the trend towards the dems is picking up strength and any illusion that Romney has any real chance of winning is quickly falling apart. Is that what the polls seem to be showing right now?

[The Magistrate]

1. Yes And No, Doctor

What is most important is that the actual event is approaching. This magnifies the effect of small shifts and small margins.

If polls show, say, a two point lead a month or even three weeks out, it is quite reasonable to say things are uncertain, that there is opportunity for movement, for a candidate to make up the difference and more. If polls show that same two point lead the weekend before the election, odds are pretty good that lead is going to hold, that the thing is going to break closer to 51/49 when the count is in than otherwise.

Similarly, a move of only a point or two in one direction a week before the election has more significance than a move of several points in that direction a month or two before the election.

What was 'fluid', one might say, turns to 'treacle' as the time margin closes down....

[Drab]

2. This race is most definitely moving in the Presidents direction.

Robme's momentum is gone, and I believe now that all the hype from the debates are subsiding, voters are seriously considering who's really got their best interest at heart. A President who brought the country from the brink of a depression. Helped bring the US auto industry back from the dead. Created a foundation for middle class grow. And kept his word by getting Osama Bin Laden. Or someone who will lie to the American public at the drop of a dime to serve his own ambition... The choice is clear.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

3. Some movement in public opinion, some adjustments to LV models

I think that the early voting trends may have caused some pollsters to change their LV screen, because early voting is going more heavily for Obama than they had predicted.

Either way, Romnesia will not win this election. Obama will be reelected, by a bigger margin than most would predict.