GOTV in Nevada (NV) Day 9. - 2,355 votes missing!

[ffr]

Last edited Tue Oct 30, 2012, 02:37 AM - Edit history (1)

Day 9 2:45 PM EST 10/29/12 Update, 34% of registered voters (2,355 votes missing)*
Democrats-- 194,914, or 45.3% percent (Dems to Reps only: 55.1%)
Republicans -159,141, or 37.0% percent (Dems to Reps only: 44.9%)
IAPs -- 76,619, or 17.8%

Democratic lead statewide
Unclear due to formula error at NV SoS

Day 9 totals from Nevada SoS PDF*
Jon Ralston Reports

Assuming Nevada IAPs support based on polls of 53/44 in favor of Romney and remaining undecided 3% for 3rd party candidates, the numbers above would reflect:

Dems: 228,626, or 53.4%
Reps: 199,749, or 46.6%
This may be something closer to a realistic conservative estimate of the final result ratios.
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* Notified SoS office of votes discrepancy and they are working on correcting it as I post this.

[ffr]

1. FIXED. Corrected numbers for NV SoS, GOTV Dem lead now 48,700

Day 9 4:00 PM EST 10/29/12 Update, 34% of registered voters
Democrats-- 195.565 or 45.2% percent (Dems to Reps only: 55.0%)
Republicans -160,158, or 37.0% percent (Dems to Reps only: 45.0%)
IAPs -- 77,025, or 17.8%

Democratic lead Clark & Washoe Counties (Las Vegas & Reno)
Clark (Las Vegas) - 47,370
Washoe (Reno) - 1,330
GOTV Total - 48,700

Day 9 totals from Nevada SoS PDF*
Jon Ralston Reports <== his numbers are incorrect, based in earlier SoS formula error. GMU.EDU and I are using the corrected numbers.

Assuming Nevada IAPs support based on polls of 53/44 in favor of Romney and remaining undecided 3% for 3rd party candidates, the numbers above would reflect:

Dems: 229,456, or 53.3%
Reps: 200,981, or 46.7%
This may be something closer to a realistic conservative estimate of the final result ratios.
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[flamingdem]

2. Do you know where complaints are addressed involving

suspicious vote totals?

[ffr]

3. NV SoS Web admin said

The numbers were posted incorrectly by NV SoS, due to perhaps using county totals that were not up to date. I have the old and new PDFs. I haven't reconciled where the 2,355 votes went, since their revised PDF shows only a discrepancy of 2,074 votes broken down as follows:

Dems - +651
Reps - +1,017
Other - + 406
Total - 2,074

[ffr]

4. Mystery solved: I concur with the NV SoS 11:30AM Week 2 revision

The number may have been plugged, whereas the detail, which did not change, was correct.

They had two reports this morning for Week 2 EV results which began on Saturday. Here are the numbers as they posted them per their time stamps:

10:00AM
Dems - 4,923
Reps - 4,352
Others 2,334
Total = 13,964 <== 2,355 over-reported

Revised
11:30AM
Dems - 4,923
Reps - 4,352
Others 2,334
Total = 11,609 <== Correct formula total

Took me an hour to determine exactly where this formula/data entry error was, but I found it.

So the only question remaining, if there is one, is where did the 13,964 number come from? Was it a plugged number, was it human error or are there numbers to substantiate it? Seems like case closed IMO.

[ffr]

5. 6 hours later, I got the detail to reveal the human errors

Fortunately, there's nothing to report other than what I found, because the NV SoS numbers from their revised 11:30AM 10/29/12 PDF, while confusing, actually do tie out with the running detail numbers.

Sorry to muddy this issue, but after I set new formulas (post above) it threw off other results, which led me down a path of spending six hours recreating their data entry errors, one series of errors after the other.

I can accurately recreate how they goofed on EV & Absentee data between Week 1 (Oct 20 - 26) and Week 2 (Oct 27 - 28, so far). It completely has to do with 9 detail numbers from three counties left completely off the 10:00AM 10/29/12 report, along with plugging in 1 number completely out of human error (see below). I can tie the numbers back to their partisan party detail too. Just wish they would have used a spreadsheet with cross-tie totals with warning strings built into them that would say something like, “Hey dumbass, you’re totals don’t tie out,” when they forgot to enter the daily detail.

Week 2 EV over/under-reported
1) Washoe - 9,638 was posted, but that's the 10/20/12 sum, the week earlier's first column; human error by 2,355
2) Nye - blank; human error.
3) White Pine - blank; human error

Week 2 Absentee under-reported (all human error)
1) Washoe - <910>
2) Nye - <1,077>
3) White Pine - <87>
Adjusted total = <2,074>

Net result is 281 over-reported votes, which I can account for.