Nate Silver: Impact of Hurricane Sandy on Election Is Uncertain

[TroyD]

October 29, 2012

I’m not sure whether I render the greater disservice by contemplating the political effects of a natural disaster — or by ignoring the increasingly brisk winds whipping outside my apartment in Brooklyn. Still, I thought it was worth giving you my tentative thoughts on how Hurricane Sandy might affect the runup to next Tuesday’s election.

We may see a reduction in the number of polls issued over the coming days. The Investor’s Business Daily poll has already announced that it will suspend its national tracking poll until the storm passes, and other cancellations may follow. And certainly, any polls in the states that are most in harm’s way, including Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, will need to be interpreted with extreme caution.

But what about the national polls that remain in the field? Could the storm affect their results?

Imagine that 15 million people are essentially off-limits to pollsters because of the hurricane, because they are without power, displaced from their homes or otherwise are well-adjusted human beings who are more interested in looking after their families than in answering a political survey. The Northeast is Democratic leaning, of course: imagine that these voters would prefer Barack Obama to Mitt Romney by a net of 20 percentage points, on average.

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More:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/impact-of-hurricane-sandy-on-election-is-uncertain/

[JiminyJominy]

1. Forget the Polls

I am more concerned with power being restored in a timely manner and clean up in the process so that we get all our voters out.

[Rowdyboy]

2. Thanks for posting this...I wanted to read it but can't afford to pay the NYT.....

Much appreciated.