2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEarly Vote numbers= Momentum per Obama Camp...
Inside the early vote numbers: Early momentum
By Jeremy Bird, National Field Director
October 29, 2012
Welcome to the last week of the race.
We are in the close contest weve prepared carefully for over the past two years. Its been a remarkably consistent, close, and competitive race, and when we look at the hard numbers that are already coming in President Obama is winning and has the momentum.
Early voting is giving us a solid lead in the battleground states that will decide this election. Two polls in the last two days have us up in Virginia. Three more in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida show movement in our direction. And in states like Iowa and Nevada, were racking up early vote margins so large that, if it continues at this rate, Mitt Romney will have to beat us by a 20 percent margin on Election Day to win.
Romney, on the other hand, is not where he wanted to be eight days out: down everywhere he needs to be up. As a result, hes stooping to desperate attacks, bluffing about momentum he doesnt have, and releasing one of the most misleading, hypocritical, and indefensible ads weve ever seen in a presidential race.
Pollsters talk a lot about likely voters. We pay much more attention to actual votersand the early vote numbers prove our grassroots ground game is outmatching Romney in every way.
Overall, were leading early vote in the battleground states, and were not taking a single one for granted. Heres a sample of what were seeing in the key states:
In Ohio, the latest public poll shows us holding steady with a four-point lead, which reflects the strong support for the President were seeing in early votingdespite Romneys last-minute efforts to mislead Ohioans. Voters from precincts the President won in 2008 have cast 53 percent of the ballots, while just 47 percent come from GOP precincts. That difference is 80 percent higher than it was at this time four years ago. You can tell a lot about how uneasy Romneys campaign feels about where he stands in Ohio by his latest move: Romney personally approved an ad running in Toledo that everyone in America knows is flat-out false and reeks of desperation. It incorrectly claims that Chrysler is moving its Jeep production to Chinaa claim Chrysler itself debunked.
In the first two days of Floridas in-person early voting, Democrats have completely erased the Republican advantage in absentee ballots, and now lead Republicans in votes with 1.9 million cast. In 2008, it took Democrats six days to erase the Republicans historical vote-by-mail advantage; in 2012, according to the AP, its taken 48 hours.
In Nevada, Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points in ballots cast so far.
In Iowa, Democrats lead Republicans on every metric and with every groupballots requested, ballots cast, in-person, mail, midterm voters and non-midterm voters.
In North Carolina, turnout is up 22 percent over 2008 levels, including among young voters and African Americans. Democrats lead Republicans by 270,000 ballots cast.
The Romney campaign, of course, wants you to think theyre expanding the map. Theyre notand were calling their bluff. This is one of the oldest tricks in the book. In 2000, George W. Bush bluffed at the end that he was going to make a play for California, and Dick Cheney did the same in Hawaii in 2004. Now Romney is pretending hes got a shot in states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Who knows which out-of-play state hell suggest hes contesting next?
The Romney campaign believes the electorate still looks like it did in 2004. It doesnt. American voters are more diverse than ever. More Latinos will vote this year than ever beforeboth in raw numbers and as a percentage of the electorate in battleground statesand the President will win the most Latino votes of any presidential candidate ever. Women continue to make up more than half of the electorate, and were leading among women by double digits nationally and in every battleground state, and for good reason.
In eight days, well know all the numbers. But what were seeing so far is a clear lead and strong momentum for President Obama.
http://www.barackobama.com/news/entry/inside-the-early-vote-numbers-early-momentum
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)anything from the campaign. Instead focusing on Nate and polls. Complaining about a fake horserace, but still treating it like t's... a horserace. Here once again the campaign outlines the true state of the race. Romney is on the ropes. Note the mentioning of the race being exactly what they prepared for and that is has been close and consistent, just as they've said since September and the numbers bear that out.
Best campaign in modern history.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)central scrutinizer
(11,648 posts)It is great news, but it is more fun making snarky comments against Rmoney.