Pew Research and a few concerns - justified or not?

[kansasobama]

Guys..

Pew tends to be left-leaning.

The report seems to indicate an Early vote advantage to Repugs.

However, our guys seem to be doing well on GOTV and early voting.

Any idea why this discrepancy?

Is there something we have to do more? Are we missing something or Pew has also joined the Rasmussen group..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt

[dennis4868]

6. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input

I hate when people post that when people here have concerns...You are not allowed to have concerns? Only positive news?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. When They Have A Pattern Of Doing This,Yes.

And obviously I'm not alone.

I have to run


I will check the thread later to see if there is evidence to support the original poster's claim that "The report seems to indicate an Early vote advantage to Repugs. "

As to checking the thread later " You betcha" I will

[monmouth]

2. Do you have a link?...n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Here

http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/10-29-12%20FINAL%20Political%20Release.pdf

[ProSense]

3. Wait

"The report seems to indicate an Early vote advantage to Repugs. "

...now you're inventing pro-Republican concerns?

Rest easy, here:

Florida: Dems erase Repub absentee advantage, now lead Repubs
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251188213

Early Vote numbers= Momentum per Obama Camp...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251188290

NC: Record Breaking African American Voter Turnout
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251188301

Interesting Tidbit from Ipsos/Reuters poll - 16% of Repub early voters crossed over to vote Obama.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021660526

GOTV

[Coexist]

5. whew. thanks for that I was CONCERNED!!

lol

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Perused The Commentary That Came With The Poll

Maybe I missed the:

Early vote advantage to Repugs.

that the OP claimed is in the poll.

[woolldog]

9. Wouldn't worry too much at this point about the national numbers.

This is all about state by state numbers now. Focus on those. The national picture isn't gonna change much between now and the election.

[kansasobama]

10. We should be ok to express concerns for clarification

We are talking to people in GOTV and we want to answer effectively when people ask us.

So, let us all band together. We all have the same goal. Electing Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Can You Please Point Me/Us Where In The Report The Evidence For Your Suggestion Is

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/

The report seems to indicate an Early vote advantage to Repugs.

[ProSense]

12. You read the Pew report wrong.

It said nothing about early voting. It made points related to the enthusiasm gap.

[abumbyanyothername]

20. I think Rand is a pretty good measure of enthusiasm gap

and how it changes over time.

In the Rand group (3500) they ask for a percentage to indicate how likely the voter is to vote. The metric actually showed Obama supporters more likely to vote than Romney supporters (at least as of yesterday -- IIRC, the dem line fell a bit today, but I don't know if it dropped below the Republican line or note, can't remember).

You could argue that Rand is not truly a poll, since they query the same people over and over. On the other hand, you could argue that Rand is better at showing actual trends since they are not changing their sample for every iteration.

Therefore, I think Democratic enthusiasm is growing and Republican enthusiasm is holding steady or even waning a bit.

As to early voting . . . clearly the democrats lead in early voting. If you include absentee in with early voting . . . I think the dems still lead, but I am not certain. Every poll I have seen, amongst the "already voted"s, Obama has a huge lead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. "You read the Pew report wrong."

That's an understatement.

[demwing]

13. Not Justified

Your statement "The report seems to indicate an Early vote advantage to Repugs" isn't drawn from the poll data or explanation.

What's up with that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. What do you think is"up with that"?

[demwing]

25. I think the OP is wrong

I just haven't figured out whether it's due to an error or a lie.

[grantcart]

14. There are no left leaning polls. There are polls and right leaning polls.

The idea that Romney is doing better than Obama on GOTV is not based in fact.

[kansasobama]

15. You are correct

Yep, I read too much into that "turnout edge." I think I got too worried. I thought turnout edge goes to us.

I still do not like that heading.

[tbennett76]

16. Pew is convinced there

is an enthusiasm gap. There is none, but they keep seeing one.

[UCmeNdc]

17. A link to what you are referring to

Please provide a link to what you are reading.

[scheming daemons]

18. No obvious troll... they aren't justified

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Called Him Or Her Out And A DU Member Questioned My Integrity

.

[kansasobama]

19. UCme

Hello:

It is already there if you scroll up but here it is again.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/

I think it is a little negative when they say Obama has not recovered from first debate. He could have easily said "Romney bounce disappears."

[Blue Idaho]

24. Why is it the people with the lowest post counts show the most concern?

Have a nice day.

[OldDem2012]

26. Sorry, but the Pew Poll has NEVER been "left-leaning. NEVER. Next question. nt.

[kansasobama]

27. You want more DUers with fewer posts because they are newcomers

BlueIdaho

You want us here, believe me. You want Dem supporters like me who are new to DU in here. We want more, not less.