Nate Silver's Update,

[mary195149]

but, I can't tell if it moved at all.
[link:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/|

[RomneyLies]

1. O down 1.7%

Mostly due to the Rasmussen poll that had Romney over Obama in Ohio.

[renate]

2. since the NYT only lets people look at ten things a month for free, could you tell us what it says?

Thanks!

[dsc]

3. during duration of hurrican Sandy

there is no pay wall.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

4. I believe they have lifted that restriction for election

Im probay checking 538 4-6 times per day and don't have a subscription.

[Ace Rothstein]

11. Use Google

Google the blog post title and go into the blog post from the search page. I've used this method many times to work around the 10 page limit.

[renate]

13. thanks so much, everybody!

All great stuff I didn't know!

[ginnyinWI]

14. this link always works for me.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[SLCLiberal]

16. Just use a free proxy

online, that's what I do.

[renate]

21. I really appreciate all these answers, but this free proxy thing intrigues me strangely

I have no idea what it is, though.

[speedoo]

5. Chance of winning down a touch.

No idea why.

[Shivering Jemmy]

6. Down 1.7 on Rasmussen Ohio poll I think

[dennis4868]

8. Why would Obama's chances come down so much

Because of 1 (R)assmussen poll for Ohio?

[Shivering Jemmy]

10. Because probability Obama wins OH

Highly correlated with probability he wins the election. Other variables less significant because they are mostly calcified.

[k8conant]

7. Obama at 50.2% up 0.2% since Oct 22

Looks OK to me

[mary195149]

9. 538 Update is 72.9% Obama

[Tenleytown]

12. down

was 296.9 now 294.6
was 74.6 now 72.9

probably that RAtass ohio poll

[Thekaspervote]

15. 294+ a couple of days ago, back up yesterday 296 now 294 yo yo yo yo

[Doctor Jack]

17. It had to have been that Rasmussen poll

I have no clue why Nate Silver includes them. He said after the 2010 election that they were the worst pollster around. The good news that I see is that there seems to be absolutely no trend towards Romney in Ohio beyond this one poll, so it is just Rasmussen being Rasmussen. The rest of the polls today looked really good.

[RomneyLies]

23. NAte is being EXTREMELY conservative in his modeling

He doesn't want to overplay things.

I believe he's going to underestimate Obama's chances in FL and NC in the end.

[demgrrrll]

18. What is the highest he has ever been on 538? Is it 80?

[mary195149]

19. In the mid 80's

[mary195149]

20. It looks like Oct 4, Obama had 320 EV

and it appears 85.7%.

[BlueDemKev]

22. Tough to remember those days, isn't it?

What a difference just a few weeks makes. At the start of this month, we were already stocking up on champagne and expecting a 2008-type result. Now we're in a horse race fighting with everything we have just to get over the finish line first.

[kansasobama]

24. It could still hit 300+

Obama could still hit 300+ if all goes well and all swing states fall his way. It is going to be tough but I will take 280+