North Carolina Early voting Data

[MyNameIsKhan]

Here is link to NC early voting data based on following:

1. Latest 2012 data for all counties
2. 2008 data for today
3. Final 2008 election tally as per each counties

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2TJUJ43Q0JKbU96TUx5S08yWEU

Based on above raw numbers:

total early votes till today: 1508144
Approx total votes for Obama: 894479 ( assuming county dynamics did not change or there is minor change that was offset by demographics change, African American and Hispanic population increase lot faster in 2000 census and they will be the ones voting in this election)
There are 34 Obama friendly counties where he got atleast 50% votes in 2008 : 744246
Approx Obama lead in 2012: 19.4% vs 19% at same point in 2008
The Voter intensity in top 34 counties is 22% more votes
The Voter intensity in rest Romney counties is 18% more votes than 2008

This means Obama is leading on voter intensity as well has out performing 2008 numbers.


I will be running the numbers accross 2010 census data to make more accurate calculations on lead.


Right now Pres is above 1-2% pts in NC and well set for winning the state.

[JiminyJominy]

1. This Is Probably

a dumb question but how do they know who voted for who?

are they exit polling or are they going straight off party affiliation/registration?

if its party affiliation I think NC is one of those states that would have some cross over voting.

[Lex]

2. Looks like they are extrapolating from the voting totals and actual outcome totals from 2008.

But in 2012 there are more probable Dem voters and they are looking up the Census numbers to cross-reference that from the 2010 Census numbers.

[MyNameIsKhan]

7. We are looking at 2000 census with some weight on 2010

as population increase happens two ways, one is people movement and other is new children. So weight needs to be distributed between 2000 and 2010.

[MyNameIsKhan]

3. The voting patterns per county does not change dramatically in 4years

The numbers are extrapolated from 2008 final vote tally. The assumption is cross overs will be offset by demographics change which ofcourse is in Obama favor. The new voters in 2012 are 58-42 in favor of Pres Obama. I am not worried about cross overs with even 8% crossovers from 2008 election the dynamics of the race will consume it.

[MyNameIsKhan]

4. Ofcourse voting patterns have changed in past with only condition of Pres Obama impoding within all

voter blocks. There is no evidence of this in early voting data, Once this is run against census numbers by tomorrow, we will have concrete idea about the exact dynamics and the race.

[John2]

5. The

answer may be in demographics. The Demographics that have increased the most are African Americans, Hispanics and others. These are new voters. The increase has been over 200,000 votes. The unaffiliated new voters are mostly white. These maybe crossover former Democrats and not new voters for the GOP. In 2008, John McCain got 16 percent of the white Democratic vote but that number was not 16 percent of the overall Democratic vote. President Obama got 35 percent of the overall white vote which was 72 percent of the total electorate.

African Americans were 23 percent of the electorate. Right now in early voting, they are at 29 percent of the electorate. They are the fastest growing racial Demographic of new voters. The next is Hispanics. That 72 percent is expected to decrease. It has decreased every cycle. So Romney can't win just talking to white people. He has to go into those neighborhoods and communities such as Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham and talk to their issues. That is why the GOP is in danger of losing elections. Oppressing the vote will not work. I guess they are going to try doing it through McCrory next cycle but that would be hard in this state.

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. Precisely

this is what we are observing in our preliminary cross tabs, right now we are extrapolating data with 2000 census to find new voters and that block as predicted seems to be solidly with Pres Obama. The numbers are not huge but you see NC went blue with 25k odd votes in 2008. The early statistics show NC going blue with 40k-100k votes. The voter intensity is also due to the fact that part of electorate was not active enough to pick up a African American man as president of USA. They are rising as well, which means the additional voters are part of pool which did not vote at all in 2008. This is going to be very interesting, We are starting this for Virginia as well and see similar trend.