Someone Set My Mind at Ease, PLEASE!

[jonpaulprime]

OK I literally have not even looked at The Drudge Report for years. Literally years. I think I was still on dailup then.

But tonight I clicked on his site against my better judgement and see he's having an orgasm over the fact that Romney is supposedly up, WAY up, in two really important polls: Gallup and Rasmussen. GALLUP SHOCK! the headline article reads.

As someone who believes it is critically important that Obama is reelected, this worries me quite a bit. Gallup and Rasmussen are pretty reliable aren't they? Somebody tell me why this news should not worry me. Please.

Hope all DU users on the East Coast are ok!

[liberalmuse]

1. No, they aren't all that reliable.

Stay away from Sludge - it's garbage. 538.com is probably the best and most accurate place to go for a compilation of the most accurate polling data.

[jonpaulprime]

8. 538

Wasnt aware of that site. This is why I'm glad I finally joined DU

[savalez]

13. Here's the actual link to 538

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Welcome to DU.

[jonpaulprime]

25. TY

[MSMITH33156]

2. The "Gallup Shock"

is that they shut down their tracking poll cause of the storm, and no, it has been one of the most inaccurate polls the last few election cycles. Way off.

[jonpaulprime]

9. Rass too?

Only ask because I distinctly recall Rass calling it for Obama prior to election day 08 against McCain (on Fox no less)

[CoffeeCat]

17. Well sure, on Election Day!! LOL!

Yes, I'm sure that Mr. Rasmussen was able to call the election for Obama that night.

Rasmussen gas accuracy problems prior to the election. They are known for bring off in their pre-election polls.

Don't drive yourself crazy with these pollsters and their disinformation.

[Panasonic]

3. Thank you for your concern. Here's your ticket.

NEXT!!!!

[Thekaspervote]

4. Forget drudge and flush Gallup

Look at 538 blog or Sam Wang of U of Princeton. Seriously forget the others save your sanity!! These two guys are SO right

[qkvhj]

5. Polls

This is a business and people are making money on both sides of this election by doing Polls and then selling theirs as more accurate than others.
Get a grip. The only Poll that matters is the one we all participate in on election day. We win on some and we loose on others. Now is the time to make sure we are going to win on that day. No one can sit on their ass now and then bitch if their side does not win.

[Marmitist]

6. Let me set your mind at ease...

Rasmussen is a Republican hack, and has a built in 2-5 point Republican bias because of the content of their sample. They deliberately rig the sample composition to favor Rightists.

#2, Drudge is celebrating an alleged Romney advantage in overall early voting, which, even if it's true, only indicates that the sample of early voters is comprised of mostly those in Red States. What really matters is how early voting is breaking in swing states, which, according to reputable pollsters, is going HEAVILY in Obama's favor.

So chillax!

[jonpaulprime]

14. Thanks

I needed to hear something like that.

[Marmitist]

21. No problem!

And please ignore all these suspicious Aloysious types who are accusing you of being a concern troll. They suck, whether they know it or not, and some of us have been here way longer than they have, irrespective of when they registered an account.

[OldDem2012]

7. That's not even a weak troll. Try again. nt.

[jonpaulprime]

10. sorry this is not

me "trolling"

I posted this because the news legitimately concerned me.

[OldDem2012]

31. Riiiigggghhttt. nt.

[Marmitist]

33. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Calling someone a troll in absence of any evidence is intellectually dishonest.

[OldDem2012]

48. LOL! This from another troll with 25 posts. nt.

[Utah_liberal]

40. Genuine nervousness is not trolling.

I wish I was more of an optimist, I too get discouraged by certain polls. Expressing discouragement doesn't make one a troll. I'm worried sick about this election. I find comfort in some polls and discouragement in others.All we can do is support each other the best we can and hope our country wins on Nov 6.

[OldDem2012]

49. Wow....you low-post folks are everywhere today!.....

[Utah_liberal]

50. Come on dude, please be nice.

What's the problem with being a low poster? I've been a member since 2004 and I happen to read more than I post. I was also covinced in another thread to become a paying member today. Let's all be friends with a common goal.

[OldDem2012]

51. I know the goals of 99% of the posters on this board....

....and I don't need a lecture from you or any other low-poster who can't seem to be bothered to post about those things you claim you support.

[Utah_liberal]

56. I suppose it doesnt take long to rack up a 1000 posts if...

Most of those posts are just snarky comments towards others.

[CoffeeCat]

11. Rasmussen is run by...

A well known partisan conservative.

Here's a tip, look for Gallup and Rasmussen to level off and reflect the true reality 5-7 days before Election Day.

They play these propaganda games, but they can't play them too close to the election. Otherwise, they lose credibility.

Most national polls (which aren't as important as state polls) show a very tight race with several showing Obama ahead by 1-2. Romney has lost his 4-5 point advantage that he garnered with the first debate.

The state polls look very good for Obama, and these are the polls that count.

[Maeve]

53. Here's what electoral-vote.com has to say about Ras

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html
In part:
Unlike companies like Strategic Vision, which most likely made up the data (but not very well) and also Research 2000, which probably did as well, no one is suggesting that Rasmussen is making up numbers without actually doing polling. There are many reports of people called by Rasmussen. The problem with Rasmussen is most likely its model of the electorate. Very briefly, if a pollster believes that in a certain state, say, 40% of the voters are Republicans and the actual survey just happens to turn up 35% Republicans, each Republican interviewed will be given a weight of 40/35 to correct for the undersampling of Republicans. All pollsters do this to correct for under- or oversampling by party, gender, age, race, income, and other factors. This is not only legitimate, but necessary with the small samples all the pollsters use. The issue here is whether Rasmussen's model of the electorate has more Republicans in it than in reality there are (not to mention whether this is accidental or deliberate).

[Blue Idaho]

12. Why is it people with the lowest post counts show the most concern?

Why would anyone go to the Drudge site and repeat its propaganda here?

Have a nice day.

[aletier_v]

18. Cause and effect are often not what they appear

A possibility - people who get concerned suddenly seek out DU, ergo their counts are low.

People that are more knowledgeable, i.e. long-time readers have less anxiety specifically because they're knowledgeable.

[Blue Idaho]

20. And sometimes we realize...

If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck - it's a duck.

[Marmitist]

22. And sometimes, someone with a post count that is low is actually a Democrat who wants more info.

For someone whose post count is under that 1000 post threshold that used to delineate a long-time poster, you sure do hurl a lot of vitriol at people...

[Blue Idaho]

29. FYI

I had to abandon my previous DU account as things at work became - well - difficult once it was known. I live in Idaho - you know. If you are really interested I will be happy to share that post count with you if you think it will add anything to the conversation.

Now, You are right - it's not the number of posts - it's the content of those posts that counts. I have read very low count posts that are full of enthusiasm for all things Democratic and I have read low count posts that repeat right wing talking points. Thus my question and it seems others as well.

Finally, if you don't like what I post on DU you are welcome to put me on Ignore.

Have a nice day.

[Marmitist]

32. Ignore is for those who are unwilling...

To confront points of view that aren't in total alignment with their own. Which is not me, I'm happy to say.

I've been on this website for nine years, under various now defunct accounts, ever since Bush started an illegal and immoral war that sent members of my family into harm's way. So we both have "DU cred" as it were... That being said, calling someone a concern troll without any evidence to that end does nobody any good, and could in fact hurt our cause by alienating a well-meaning individual who just wanted to know what was (and *is*) actually transpiring vis-a-vis polling and reality. I choose to believe the best of newbies, while you apparently choose to believe the worst. I'm not going to pass judgment on that apparent decision, I just want you to be aware how your suspicion may not serve to support Democratic candidates in the way that you evidently think that it does.

I've said my piece... You are free to put *me* on ignore, if you so wish, and in the same spirit that you offered me to have a nice day, I wish the same to you.

[Voice for Peace]

35. thank you.

[grantcart]

34. ah yes the low count poster who is sooooooooooooooooooooo concerned about all the bad news

can't wait until after the 7th when so many (but not every single one) will no longer come here because they are no longer concerned but sitting home drowning their despair at Obama's reelection.

If you just went through Politics 2012 there are dozens of threads that actually give background information on actual turn out and those polls that are not served up by the right wing media machine.

[Marmitist]

37. I'll be here on Nov. 7th...

Celebrating Rmoney's defeat, just like everyone else. Not every new poster is a troll, FYI.

[grantcart]

55. No but the ones that are so verrrrrrry concerned are. Then there are other lame attempts like

this one

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021668639

If you are a new DUer, fine. Leave the concerns and the references to RW sites like Drudge at the door and join the discussion.

[aletier_v]

30. the paranoia gets tiresome, whether it's really a troll or not

I could jabber about echo chambers and inevitable of information flow but, in keeping with the idea, it wouldn't matter much anyway and you probably wouldn't listen.

[jonpaulprime]

23. I'm taken aback by the presumption of some that I'm trolling here

I am not a long time reader here, and I've only recently begun posting. Anyone who takes a look at my youtube videos know I'm a solid Obama supporter and proud to be a Democrat in a very red area of Florida.

I do in fact have a high level of anxiety right now, and the article I mentioned was the direct cause of it. I hadn't been following any kind of campaign news all day, been watching the storm coverage, then I see that and boom it hit me hard.

[bimbocoles]

26. jon, don't believe anything you see on RW sites like drudge

don't watch fox news either. Fox news channel is considered an entertainment channel by TV guide for a reason. Fox news televised a live on air suicide a few weeks ago on Shepard Smith's show.

[Voice for Peace]

36. ignore all polls

focus on enjoying being alive.

Ignore people who accuse you of trolling, or are rude
to you here in any way. Many of them are trolls themselves,
no doubt.

[jonpaulprime]

47. will try!

[LiberalElite]

24. Why is it low post counts are sooooo subject to suspicion?

YOU had 0, zilch, NADA posts at one time, right? Or did you start with 804?

[brooklynite]

15. Read Andrew Sullivan

Psy Ops

Drudge has three polls today: Rasmussen, Gallup and Fred Barnes' distortion of the Battleground poll. Meanwhile, the demonization of Nate Silver continues with Joe Scarborough:

Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes.

But Silver's model remains unchanged throughout the election. And its current prediction of the popular vote remains close: 50.4 for Obama to 48.7 for Romney. Nate was a sports stats nerd; he's not an "ideologue". Of course Romney can still win. But when you crunch the electoral college through all the swing state polls, and give Romney Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada (which are all very close right now), you still get this:

[RomneyLies]

16. Gallup & Rasumussen vs. the rest of the world

Gallup is a true outlier and it is based primarily on their overly restrictive likely voter model.

Even Ras is moving things towards Obama these days.

[bimbocoles]

19. The politico GWU poll is pretty accurate and it has Obama up by 1

nationally. Don't even pay attention to general election polls, just watch the swing states. Gallup had Obama up 11.5 points in it's general election poll in 2008 and he only won by I think 4 or 5 points so it was off about 6 points. So, subtract 6 points from gallup's poll and you have the true number nationwide. Obama up by 1 or 2 points.

[jonpaulprime]

27. I hope so

I earlier tweeted a DU post about Florida. Hoping my state goes blue for Obama again (but I know my county won't)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. conservative take on Gallup and Rasmussen

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331828/two-polls-have-chicago-terrified-josh-jordan#


The Two Polls That Have Chicago Terrified
By Josh Jordan

October 27, 2012 6:10 P.M. Comments153

For all of the polls that are flying out almost hourly now, there are two common trends emerging: Mitt Romney is leading independents by healthy margins, and who holds the overall lead is entirely dependent on the party split within the sample. As of last night, Romney had a razor-thin lead of eight-tenths of a point nationally against an average Democratic partisan advantage of 4.4 points. In 2008, Barack Obama won the election by 7.2 points (52.9–45.7) and Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8 points. Compared with the average today, Obama has dropped 8 points while losing only 2.6 points of the turnout advantage. That is due entirely to Romney’s strength with independent voters, and reason enough to sound the alarm in Chicago.

But of all the polls that have been released, there are two polls that will have Team Obama waking up in a cold sweat, knowing that if these polls are even somewhat accurate, they might be on the other end of a dramatic victory on Election Day: The party-affiliation polls from Gallup and Rasmussen.

Gallup released a demographic poll of likely voters from October 1 through October 24. The poll is of 9,424 likely voters — a large enough sample that the maximum margin of error is 1 point. In other words, this is a very comprehensive poll of the electorate, unlike smaller polls, that has much more reliability, especially in the subgroups, than any current national poll. The headline of the poll, “2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008,” would make Team Obama want to pick up the phone and reserve Grant Park for election-night festivities, but looking at the data inside may have them preferring to rent out a Lou Malnati’s so they can drown their sorrows in a deep-dish pizza as the results pour in.

In 2008, Gallup found the party breakdown of the electorate to be 39 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans, and 31 percent independents. That 10-point advantage grew to 12 points when independents were asked which party they typically leaned toward, with 54 percent identifying as Democrats and 42 percent as Republicans.

From that sample, Gallup predicted that Democratic turnout would be 10 points higher than Republican, and that independents would break to Obama. In 2008, Democrats did outperform Republicans by a slightly smaller margin, 7 points, and independents did break to Obama by 8 points. So while they might have overstated Democratic support slightly, Gallup was able to see the underlying trend, which was a huge jump from 2004, an election that was just about even.

In the current tracking poll, Gallup finds that the 10-point advantage for Democrats has now turned into a 1-point Republican advantage. The current party breakdown is now 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. And just in like 2008, that 1-point advantage increases when independents are asked which party they typically lean to, with 49 percent identifying as Republicans and 46 percent as Democrats. That number backs up the trends in other polling showing Romney leading among independents by large margins.

more at link

[scheming daemons]

39. Gallup tracker, Oct 27, 2000: Bush 52, Gore 39

Still think Gallup is accurate?

[blue-kite]

46. Yikes... Scary

[BlueDemKev]

54. Yeah, considering Bush only "won" 48% to 49%....

[WallaceRitchie]

41. National Polls mean nothing

The electoral college is the defining factor.

Obama could lead by 2 in 49 states... but if Romney won 99% of Texas, it would show him with a lead in national polls.
This is what drives Gallup's lead for Romney.

[WallaceRitchie]

42. Ohio polls

Consider the 10 recent polls in Ohio. Out of the 10, Rasmussen is the only poll that shows Romney ahead... a +2 margin. An average of all 10 polls shows Obama at +1.9 per RCP.

[Fringe]

52. In addition, Rasmussen was off by 4.6 points in Ohio in 2008.

Every other poster in 2008 had Obama winning Ohio, except for Rasmussen and Mason Dixon(another right wing poster)

Rasmussen had the race tied, Mason Dixon had McCain up by 2.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

[WallaceRitchie]

43. Drudge pushing Stolen Election narrative

Drudge and many RWNJs (including Limbaugh) are pushing the narrative that Romney has an "insurmountable lead". This is a pre-emptive plan to de-legitimize Obama's pending win. They want their foaming-at-the-mouth followers to believe that Obama stole the election... when in fact, any Romney win will be the result of voter purges, voter suppression, and ballot machine tampering as well as outright ballot fraud.

[Utah_liberal]

44. One more encouraging piece of info

They say Romney has a wide lead amongst white people. I think its safe to say minorities are likely under polled. Here's a little tidbit on how minorities may make up 28 percent of the electorate this year. That bodes very well for Obama.
http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/24/the-latest-view-from-one-prudential-plaza-why-the-obama-campaign-is-still-so-confident-about-beating-romney/

[Divine Discontent]

45. oh the humanity