10/29 DailyKos Summary Today in early voting: FL, IA, NV, NC and PA

[grantcart]

The bottom line is that we are out performing 2008 and that Romney is out performing McCain. Most analysis continue to see that as a big advantage for us because Democrats as a whole are more irregular voters and that the increased numbers mean that by banking more Democratic voters early they are capturing some voters who are unable or unmotivated to vote on election day, thereby increasing Democratic totals.

They also see increased Republican numbers as not increasing total Republican turnout as much as simply getting election day voters to vote early.

Kos has an excellent summary state by state and their is no reason to simply quote him, click on the link and read the latest numbers, all basically good news.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/29/1152251/-Today-in-early-voting-FL-IA-NV-NC-and-PA

[BlueStreak]

1. And remember, none of the polls have been close when they are talking REGISTERED voters

It is only by predicting LIKELY voters that the pollsters get it to something like a dead heat in some places.

LV + GOTV = RV

Another question for speculation. I'd assume that the early voters are very likely to vote their party affiliation, whereas those waiting until the last minute might be more likely to vote against their normal affiliation. That factor might make it a little harder to close the gap with election day voters.

[grantcart]

2. in NC there is no such thing as a non registered voter.

[LisaL]

3. Yes. There is. They can register on the spot for early voting.

[grantcart]

5. That is my point.

Pollsters throw out anyone who says that they are not registered.

In North Carolina there is no such thing as a non registered person (from a polling perspective) because they can go and vote and register at the same time.

It makes a huge difference in a close election and none of the pollsters can account for it.

In North Carolina you don't have registered/not registered you just have voted/not voted.

[politicman]

4. Romney needs to close huge gaps in early voting to have a chance of winning

Think of it this way:

In 2008, Obama won by a landslide, so his early vote totals for 2008 were a starting point for this election cycle.

Now, the only way Romney could win was he needed to close that early voting gap sufficiently, because we saw in 2008 that with that Obama lead in early voting he was able to pull off a massive landslide.


As we are seeing right now, Romney has increased his early vote of that of McCain's which is a good sign for him, BUT Obama has countered that by increasing his early vote over that of 2008 when he won in a landslide.


So even if Romney ends up closing the early voting gap by a little bit, THAT still leaves Obama with sufficiently enough votes to win the election AS Obama could afford to lose votes and still win as he had such a huge margin in 2008.


In the end, what we are looking for is 2012 early votes tallies compared to 2008 early vote tallies:

So for instance if Obama won a particular state by 10% last election, THEN Romney has to somehow find a way to close the early voting gap by at least 8% just to be close on election day.

Is he doing this?