Playing defense in MN and PA or are we safe in OH and VA?

[smorkingapple]

I'm not getting why we even need to pay attention to what were formerly safe Dem states instead of hitting NC and FL.

Now Biden is hitting PA, WTF?

It's one thing to match advertising in certain states, but sending candidates there in the last week?

Here's the flip side:

We have 4 assets we can deploy: POTUS, VPOTUS, FLOTUS and the Big Dog. Romney only has himself and Ryan. No one else on the Republican side even remotely has the star power of our guys.

Maybe these are all Hail Mary's by Romney and we're so confident in winning OH, IA and VA that we can afford to send our guys there just to bracket them.

Rove isn't sending any money to WI now but is sending to NC. Polls are showing NC and FL very tight.

Curious what others think.

[dennis4868]

1. It's not a good thing

If we are playing defense in PA & MN, especially MN this late in the game, it's not a good sign. I guess Obama's internal polling shows a tightening of the race in these states. Romney is a hell of a car salesman. He offers the people of PA & MN nothing but yet gets people support him there. I don't think we realize the power of Romney's lies. Most voters are low info voters and are believing the BS that is coming out of Romney's mouth. There's never been a candidate for president who lies so much and just makes shit up about his opponent. It's working. Just hope to god it doesn't put him in the White House.

[Obamamama44]

2. I don't think the media has done a good job in pointing that out...

And why are polls getting all the attention a d not the heavy heavy turnout??? That to me says more than a poll...

Can not wait till this is over...

[politicaljunkie41910]

11. It can't hurt to show up and energize the base in PA and MN; show them some love. No regrets later.

[WI_DEM]

23. you're always a hand-wringer aren't you?

[abumbyanyothername]

35. A hand wringer instantly supported by a bunch of low count posters.

But I am sure it's just a coincidence.

[BlueDemKev]

25. PA and MN are more winnable than NC and FL.

Our goal is to reach 270 electoral votes. Focusing our limited time and resources on the most winnable states for us is the smart thing to do. In addition to holding PA and MN, our target states should be:

OHIO
WISCONSIN
NEVADA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
VIRGINIA
COLORADO

[Twelve String]

3. What, Me Worry?

PA and MN are in the bag for Obama. No worries there. NC could turn for Obama, but not sure about Florida. No matter - we won't need Florida this year.

[dennis4868]

4. If these states

Are in the bag for Obama then why is he spending money and other resources in these states so late in the game? Surely we could spend the money and Bill Clinton's time in the battleground states like Flirida and NC?

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

24. To help Downticket races, energize the base, help GOTV efforts

If Obama is in PA or WI every day this week, I'll worry

[BlueDemKev]

27. We don't need Florida or North Carolina

Honestly, we probably won't win either of those states as they have always leaned a bit to the right. But other states are very much within reach which will get us to 270:

Pennsylvania
Ohio
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire

[skeewee08]

5. When is Biden going Pennsylvania?

[hoosierlib]

6. Tight senate race in PA...

[fugop]

7. Biden stumped there in Oct 2008 as well

Because, y'know, Pa. was going red. For McCain.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

9. So did Obama

a week or so before election day, in fact.

[OldDem2012]

8. With the huge size of the President's ground game in EACH of the battleground states....

...do you really believe the Dems are "playing it safe" anywhere?

Quite frankly, that's what the GOP wants you to believe and you appear to have swallowed it. Sorry, but the Dems have many more assets than the ones you mentioned.

Additionally, I doubt seriously anyone knows where the GOP or the Dems are sending their money, despite any public statements.

[bemildred]

10. It's about the down-ticket races now.

Congress, congress, congress.

The first job was re-elect Obama-Biden, the second is give them a Congress that wants to govern well.

[blue in redland]

12. PA has good ground game

I live in Central PA which is definitely conservative,but Philly and Pittsburgh very blue,with good union organization and great ground game which GOTV.In 2008 Clinton and Obama were here.Biden was here about 6 weeks ago.I saw somewhere that Romney was doing an ad buy here for the last week push and Obama campaign stated they had planned the same.We have had some Obama ads but virtually silent from Romney in at least the last 4 weeks

[CANDO]

21. Welcome to DU, blue in redland!

I'm near Williamsport, in Cogan Station. It's a sea of Romney signage around here. Of course, this is the "Alabama" section of Pennsylvania, with the local news rag SunGazette serving as head wing-nut cheerleader.

[Cosmocat]

13. OH, FOR FUCKS SAKE

We are now channeling the bad news for dems, good news for reps bullshit in Democratic Underground?

This is the President's campaign reacting to the Romney's campaign doing its last minute scrambling to piece together the EV numbers knowing that Ohio is not going his way.

This is fricken bad new for Romney for christ sakes, but yes, Morning Joe/Faux News has the straight take on it.

McCain took the battle to Pa last election, and BO did not sit no the sidelines and watch him, he went to Pa and matched him punch for punch, and McCain got curb stomped in PA.

The margin is going to be closer all across the board this time, but what people be saying if Romney went up in Minny/Pa and BO did nothing?

[justiceischeap]

14. The reason R/R are putting a play in for PA and MN

is because the race is so close (according to polling--I think the polling is off) they hope they can siphon off enough votes to make a difference. Remember the President Obama ad about the Florida votes being the difference in the election in 2000. He and his staff know it's going to be close. We need to get used to the fact that it's going to be close.

[Lord_Maculus]

20. The reason R/R are putting a play in for PA and MN is because OH and VA...

are looking like absolute crap for them, NC and FL will be down to the wire (don't believe anything else to the contrary) and could very well go blue again, Colorado is a toss-up, Nevada is going blue, Iowa will probably go dem again even in spite of damn near everything going against us there. Bottom line is that a clear path for the Romney campaign is becoming less and less visible with each passing day. All indications are that Ohio is probably going to go to Obama, and most objective observers would agree that without Ohio Romney is up Shit Creek without a paddle. Romney and his cohorts can talk about SURGING in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan until they're fucking blue in the face, doesn't change the fact that on November 6th those states are going to be BLUE on the map. It's all about projecting strength to keep their base engaged. What will look more promising to their fanatics, spending time trying to save North Carolina and Virginia, or making a valiant effort in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio?

Mid-westerners know that if they go with Romney, that means slitting their own throats and the end of unions and worker rights as they know it. They do so at their own peril.

[leftynyc]

15. Competitive senate races in

the states? Mitt is spending money in NC - that is not a good sign for him.

[zebe83]

16. New Poster for PA.

Good Morning,

I am the new to these boards and I am glad I found it. I live in Pittsburgh.

The advertising by the Romney PACs started here this morning (I took off because of the hurricane) and are being answered by the Obama PAC ads.

The local political reporter on the CBS affiliate said this would happen three weeks ago. That the Romney people would make a last ditch attempt to flip the state.

No worries here. PA has escaped much of the terrible damage from the hurricane so we will be prepared to GOTV.

This is my first post and reading this site kept me sane the last couple of weeks.

[LukeFL]

18. Welcome to DU. I am also a newby.

GOTV in PA. Lets keep it blue again.

[BlueDemKev]

28. Hell Yeah!

We cannot win without Pennsylvania!! So glad the Keystone State has been reliably blue in presidential elections for 20 years now!

[cbayer]

33. Welcome to DU, zebe83.

Glad you made it through the storm ok and thanks for your GOTV efforts.

[TroyD]

17. I have no idea what's going on anymore

Some states seem solid for Obama, other states seem much closer than 2008.

For example, a new poll just came out that shows Obama only ahead (+6) in Oregon.

Who knows what's going on out there with all these contradictory polls?

[Lord_Maculus]

29. Romney is NOT winning Oregon only drawing 41% at this point

And he's NOT winning Minnesota by only doing slightly better than that. And at this stage of the game, I don't really have use for a poll that doesn't appear like it even tried to push leaners. I mean, really, 47-41? 12% third party and/or undecided? Uhhh, no. Just no.

Oregon has ALWAYS been the most conservative of the three "blue states" on the Pacific Coast, so I don't really find the gap in that poll that surprising. Obama will probably win it by somewhere between 6-to-8 percentage points, same for Minnesota. Truth is, outside of New York, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and the rest of the Northeastern/New England states, Obama will win most of his states by less than he did in 2008 and by less than what Romney will win most of his states by. Almost every single one of the true "swing" states of this election (Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida) will be won by anywhere from 0.5-to-5 percentage points. Which means "ground game" (and I know everyone is sick of hearing and talking about that term) is very likely to make all the difference.

[a kennedy]

19. I saw "pickles" at a rally for Robme in Michigan on C-SPIN

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2012/10/laura-bush-on-the-stump-in-michigan-mitt-romney-and-paul-ryan-have-better-answers.html/ so there's that... Ugh...

[Mojo2]

22. Minnesota and Pennsylvania will not flip

Even if we base this on Obama only having a 3 point lead in each state, do you realize just how many people Romney would have to flip in order to just tie the race? Were talking about a ton of people flipping. Outside of some dramatic event that would skew the whole country towards Romney, these states will not change hands this late in the game. IMO, this is a smokescreen, Romney is going to lose Ohio, so he needs to make it look like he is expanding the map instead of bankingon one path of just winning in Ohio. Romney has a very narrow path to 270 ECV and the loss of Ohio makes it nearly impossible to win

[Comrade_McKenzie]

26. You won't get an unbiased analysis here...

I spend a lot of time here and see how much the President is winning, see all the excuses when he's down in a poll, and watch how fast someone is shot down when they show concern.

Then when I tune into virtually anything else, the situation is not as cheery as some on here believe or want you to believe. And I'm not crazy enough to believe everyone is in on a giant conspiracy to put Romney in the White House.

I honestly believe the President is going to win if everyone gets off their asses and goes to vote. It will be an extremely close election and anyone telling you otherwise is overly optimistic. This has always been a close election. The President, himself, has said so.

Just. Fucking. Vote.

[Lord_Maculus]

30. No one is saying or has said that this wouldn't be a close race

But I just don't see the evidence that Romney is expanding his map and his paths to victory. He has one path to victory now, just like he has had one path to victory for a majority of this campaign: McCain States + Indiana, win back North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, AND Ohio, while picking off at least one of New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, or Wisconsin.

Not impossible, but based on recent polling (as well as polling throughout much of this campaign) it appears as though he's going to need to pitch a shutout and have a lot of things break right for him. If the mid-west firewall holds for Obama, then Romney is done no matter how well he does in picking off all those other states. I don't think that anyone here is being overly "cheery" and trying to sugarcoat things to our liking, we're just looking at the state of the states as they currently appear to be. I know the media has their OMGZZZ HORSE RACE!!!1111!! to sell, but I don't get the sense of impending doom about every poll result that some do. It will be a tight race and close finish, I've thought that for a while, and I am nervous-- I think we're all nervous at this point-- but I still like where we currently appear to be in the swing states. We're leading or tied in more than we're trailing in.

I do agree with your closing sentiment, though: JFV, people! The only way we lose is if our side doesn't show up to the polls.

[TexasCPA]

31. Romney is getting desperate

He knows he is going to lose OH and is looking for an alternative way to get to 270.

[RomneyLies]

32. You guys sure have your talkjing points this morning.

Biden grew up in Scranton.

[Jennicut]

34. There is a Senate race in PA that we need. Casey looks safe in some polls, closer in others.

I really think it is just for down ticket purposes now and to be extra cautious. PA and MN and MI are so not going to Romney. Will it be closer then '08? Sure it will. Will Romney get those states? No. It would be like us seeing the AZ poll of Obama down 2 and thinking we have a shot in AZ. PA, MN, and MI are just leaning too Democratic to go to Romney this time. Don't get me started on Oregon. Oregon is out of reach for Romney like GA is out of reach for us. There were some close CT polls like Rasmussen showing Romney behind by 7 points. It is not happening folks. The close states are OH, IA, WI, NH, CO, VA, NC, NV and FL. That is it. The Mason Dixon poll in MN was not any different from any of their other polls. Very right leaning this election cycle.

[smorkingapple]

36. Inclined to agree with this. MN might be to help Baldwin out as well.

This is why I didn't want to sound all gloomy in 1st post. Maybe these are good signs that we can afford to expand the map a little to help down ballot races since we have some of the swing states in the bag already.