SurveyUSA: FLORIDA (Tie) Obama 47, Romney 47; SENATE - Nelson (+8)

[TroyD]

Florida Early Vote Favors Obama, But When Election-Day Romney Supporters are Factored In, Sunshine State is Exactly Tied:

8 days until votes are counted in the election for President, the 5% of Florida voters who today are undecided will determine whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama get the state's critical 29 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Among Florida voters who have made up their minds, including a large number who have already returned a ballot, the contest is 47% Romney, 47% Obama.

Romney starts off 15 points in the hole: Obama leads 57% to 42% among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. But Romney leads by 13 points among the larger group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election Day. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, the candidates finish exactly even.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 11 days ago, which was conducted before the 3rd and final Presidential Debate, Romney is today up a nominal 1 point, Obama is flat. Today, Obama leads by 19 points in Southeast FL, but Romney leads in every other region of the state. Obama leads by 4 points among women, Romney leads by 5 points among men. Independents break 45% to 40% for Romney. Moderates break 51% to 41% for Obama. Romney leads among Florida's white voters, is tied among Florida's Cubans, and trails Obama among Florida's other minority groups.

Romney leads by 18 points among seniors, who are the most reliable voters. This gives Romney an advantage heading into the final week of campaigning. If younger voters do not turn out in the numbers shown here, Obama will under-perform this poll.

* Obama has a Plus 2 Net Favorability Rating today, almost unchanged from the Plus 3 that Obama had 11 days ago.
* Romney has a Plus 1 Net Favorability Rating today, which is 3 ticks better than the Minus 2 Rating Romney had 11 days ago.

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More:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7160c83f-98c8-4802-9758-bd492cdeb362

[TexasCPA]

1. Florida is going to be tight

It could go either way. As long as Obama wins OH, WI, and NV, it does not matter.

[WI_DEM]

2. 23% have already voted in FL and Obama is up 15 with them.

[VirginiaTarheel]

3. This poll does stellar job of separating Independents from Moderates

Independents are largely people too ashamed to admit they are Republicans. Moderates favor Obama.

[Drab]

4. I think Virginia is in play now, with North Carolina close behind.

I think he's down by 8 in Georgia. WTH!!!.... He's doing better in states that Robme should have locked up.