10/30 51.38% O 48.62% R EV 281 O 257 R O Chance of Winning 86.66%

[courseofhistory]

DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html

Princeton Election Consortium

As of October 30, 10:01AM EDT:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
Meta-margin: Obama +2.00%


http://election.princeton.edu/

[cilla4progress]

1. Thank you

there is NO WAY all these statistical models favoring Obama could be wrong: Princeton; Nate; InTrade.

Are you with me on this?

[barnabas63]

2. Yeah! I'm with you!

GOTV and we will win this election!

[FBaggins]

3. Depends on what you mean by "wrong"

If they say that there's a 70% chance of winning, that isn't close to a sure thing. Run ten such races and you expect to lose three of them. It has certainly happened before that IEM/Intrade ran up into the 90s and then flipped all the way to zero on election day evening as the counts came in against them.

So yeah... they mean that we ARE likely to win... but if we lose, don't think it makes them "wrong".

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

4. The DeSart prediction is a very pessimistic one for Obama

And we still win both Electoral College and popular vote.

Keep up the GOTV efforts and all will be well.