Can We Trust the Polls? Voteamatic

[courseofhistory]

Can We Trust the Polls?

If you believe the polls, Obama is in good shape for reelection. And my model’s not the only one showing this: you’ll find similar assessments from a range of other poll-watchers, too. The lead is clear enough that The New Republic’s Nate Cohn recently wrote, “If the polls stay where they are, which is the likeliest scenario, Obama would be a heavy favorite on Election Day, with Romney’s odds reduced to the risk of systemic polling failure.”

What would “systemic” polling failure look like? In this case, it would mean that not only are some of the polls overstating Obama’s level of support; but that most – or even all – of the polls have been consistently biased in Obama’s favor. If this is happening, we’ll have no way to know until Election Day. (Of course, it’s just as likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Obama’s vote share, but then Democrats have even less to be worried about.)

A failure of this magnitude would be major news. It would also be a break with recent history. In 2000, 2004, and 2008, presidential polls conducted just before Election Day were highly accurate, according to studies by Michael Traugott here and here; Pickup and Johnston; and Costas Panagopoulos. My own model in 2008 produced state-level forecasts based on the polls that were accurate to within 1.4% on Election Day, and 0.4% in the most competitive states.

Read more at link

http://votamatic.org/can-we-trust-the-polls/


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[RomneyLies]

1. I would not that his and Nate's maps are identical

They are using two different statistic models and are coming to the same conclusion.

[courseofhistory]

2. Really? Interesting. Thanks! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. They Are Coming To Roughly The Same Conclusion As Are Most Of The Aggregators/nt