Obama Up By 3% In OH Trimmed-Mean Estimate

[DemocratSinceBirth]

infernoman wrote on Oct 30, 2012 17:00:27 #
I just did a trimmed-mean estimate of the polls in Ohio. This takes all the polls over the last 12 days, throws away the top and bottom outliers ('Trim 1'), and also filters for Live Polls only (no Internet-only or Landline-Only polls).

Obama has stabilized at +3 for the last week. Python code available for anyone interested.




http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. that's no mean estimate. It's actually rather nice

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I'm Not Sure What A Trimmed Mean Estimate Is But It Sounds Precise/nt

I'm doing a google search now.

[woolldog]

3. here you go:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=trimmed+mean+estimate

[woolldog]

4. lol

this thread is one of the results.

[tarheelsunc]

5. What's along the x-axis?

[woolldog]

6. time, probably

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It Looks Like O Went From A Large Lead To A Smaller Consistent Lead

Which is the point of the graph.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

10. little Xs?

OK, I know, that is even worse.

what is interesting is how our side uses math and statistics to analyze data, and come up with arguments about trends. The GOP merely cherry picks the best result and screams about it at the top of their lungs.

[Democratopia]

8. All we need is for POTUS to show his leadership and empathy this week and another drop in

Unemployment rate and that 3% will double by Tuesday.

[Maximumnegro]

9. Romney lost. Question now is by how much

by Tuesday. But he's done. Not even a question at this point. If you're giving rallies at a high school filled with students and staff... you're done.