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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPrinceton Consortium-Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 92%, Bayesian Prediction 98%
http://election.princeton.edu/Professor Wang called Bush/Kerry to within 1 EV of the outcome; Obama/McCain exactly. They basically just aggregate the state polls with nonparametric statistics and plot out the EV probabilities.
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Princeton Consortium-Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 92%, Bayesian Prediction 98% (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Oct 2012
OP
amuse bouche
(3,657 posts)1. Ooh
I like that a lot
bamacrat
(3,867 posts)2. Every time I do the CNN Electoral map I come up with the same as them:
O - 303
R - 235
Robbins
(5,066 posts)3. Electoral vote
I still think there Is chance of getting 300 Electoral votes.If Obama wins all non southern battlegrounds and picks up 1 of 3
southern battlegrounds(Most lIkely Virginia) he could do It.Although I don't rule out possibility of Obama prevailing In all the swing states
and Romney wins Mccain States+Indiana
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)4. Promising
courseofhistory
(801 posts)5. I run the EV Simulation Map 100 times
every day and consistently come up with between 90-95% for Obama. Average EV for Obama is 302.
http://www.270towin.com/simulation/
It is a fun distraction and uplifting as well as seeming to be in line with most predictions.