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As of October 30, 12:01PM EDT:
As of October 30, 12:01PM EDT:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
Meta-margin: Obama +2.18%
http://election.princeton.edu/
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
Meta-margin: Obama +2.18%
http://election.princeton.edu/
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What are jerseyvotes? And can you explain the “Power Of Your Vote” table?
Jerseyvotes, invented at this site in 2004, are a way to measure the power of individual votes to sway the election. Conceptually, jerseyvotes are distantly related to the Banzhaf Power Index, but normalized to the power of one individual. If you have ten times as much influence over the national win probability as a voter in New Jersey, your vote is worth 10 jerseyvotes. Sadly for the hosts of this site, one jerseyvote is not worth very much.
The Voter Influence table in the right-hand sidebar displays information about the ten states currently with the highest jerseyvotes, plus New Jersey for comparison. The jerseyvote statistic for each state is listed in the “Power” column, and they are normalized so that the most powerful state has power equal to 100. (Originally, this power statistics was normalized so that NJ voters had power equal to 1, hence the term “Jerseyvotes”.) The current polling margin, as determined by the meta-analysis, is also displayed for each state. For example, if the meta-analysis indicates that NJ is currently polling 50% for Obama and 44% for McCain, then NJ’s “Margin” column would read “Obama +6%.”
Jerseyvotes, invented at this site in 2004, are a way to measure the power of individual votes to sway the election. Conceptually, jerseyvotes are distantly related to the Banzhaf Power Index, but normalized to the power of one individual. If you have ten times as much influence over the national win probability as a voter in New Jersey, your vote is worth 10 jerseyvotes. Sadly for the hosts of this site, one jerseyvote is not worth very much.
The Voter Influence table in the right-hand sidebar displays information about the ten states currently with the highest jerseyvotes, plus New Jersey for comparison. The jerseyvote statistic for each state is listed in the “Power” column, and they are normalized so that the most powerful state has power equal to 100. (Originally, this power statistics was normalized so that NJ voters had power equal to 1, hence the term “Jerseyvotes”.) The current polling margin, as determined by the meta-analysis, is also displayed for each state. For example, if the meta-analysis indicates that NJ is currently polling 50% for Obama and 44% for McCain, then NJ’s “Margin” column would read “Obama +6%.”
In your future prediction / current snapshot, the probability is very different from the InTrade price. Why is that?
It is wrong to interpret InTrade prices as true probabilities. Those prices reflect what a number of bidders think to be the win probability. InTrade bidders tend to be underconfident in evaluating polling data. On Election Eve, even a 5 +/- 1 point lead for a candidate is often insufficient to drive a share price above $0.90. However, it is true that the candidate with an InTrade price above $0.50 is usually the leading candidate. The issue is analyzed further here.
It is wrong to interpret InTrade prices as true probabilities. Those prices reflect what a number of bidders think to be the win probability. InTrade bidders tend to be underconfident in evaluating polling data. On Election Eve, even a 5 +/- 1 point lead for a candidate is often insufficient to drive a share price above $0.90. However, it is true that the candidate with an InTrade price above $0.50 is usually the leading candidate. The issue is analyzed further here.
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