GOTV Colorado (CO), Reps lead in EV, maybe not?

[ffr]

Last edited Tue Oct 30, 2012, 04:43 PM - Edit history (1)

Updated based on polling that shows Independents favoring Dems/Reps 48/31 <here>. See below addition.

10/30/12 - With 965,510 votes cast in early voting, Reps lead Dems by 3.8 points

Republican lead
~27,000 votes (not insurmountable!)

Statewide early/mail numbers:
Democrats -- 343,722 or 35.6 percent (Dems to Reps only 48.1%)
Republicans -- 370,756, or 38.4 percent (Dems to Reps only 51.9%)
Others -- 251,033, or 26.0 percent

ADDED: Assuming Colorado IAPs support based on recent polls of 48/31 (79% of 1.00) in favor of Obama and unscientifically assuming the majority of the 21% undecideds split the same way and discarding what remains (about 5%) as votes for 3rd party candidates, the numbers above would reflect:

Dems: 265,860, or 55.5%
Reps: 213,289, or 44.5%
This may be or may not be something closer to a realistic conservative estimate of the final result ratios, but it does place weight on undecideds. So pick which ratios you believe.
GMU.EDU 2012 Election Statistics
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GOTV my fellow Democrats. Come on Colorado! Swing the congressional balance of power to Obama. Victory 2012

[kansasobama]

1. C'mon

We would like Colorado

[SubgeniusHasSlack]

2. Indys are voting for The President

The CO will remain blue.

[ffr]

3. Is there a reliable polling source that shows their R/D ratios?

If you can get me the ratios, I can adjust my model to show adjusted results.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. I don't understand this: I thought CO had been reliably BLUE for a long time.

What did the president do that was so offensive to the people there?

(Yes, I know there's a good deal of Mormons and conservatives in CO, but jeez!!)

[ffr]

5. Revised to include how Indy polling suggests they may be voting

See OP update.