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stopbush

(24,396 posts)
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 03:35 PM Oct 2012

Dear Poll Worriers: Unless You See A Drastic Reversal In Nate Silver's Numbers, Chill The Fuck Out

Obviously, many of you are obsessed about the polls. ALL the polls.

You shouldn't be.

Turn off the TV machine, forget what any RW pundit/politico/pollster says and get about your life, secure in the fact that when you vote for President Obama on Tuesday, you are voting for a man who is going to win in a landslide.

On the other hand, if Nate's numbers suddenly reverse themselves, well, yeah. That would be very bad. And you should be worried about that IF it were to happen.

But it isn't going to happen, so chill the fuck out.

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
1. Romney has the lost the election. Anyone actually worried
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 03:38 PM
Oct 2012

at this point isn't paying attention, to put it in the mildest possible terms.

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)
5. Gallup's numbers are all because
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 03:51 PM
Oct 2012

I missed that call from them earlier in the election cycle.

They just aren't polling the right people!

Ilsa

(61,695 posts)
7. I'm not worried about the polls.
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 04:04 PM
Oct 2012

I'm nervous about Ohio being rigged and stolen, but I'm not worried about the polls.

 

Dawgs

(14,755 posts)
8. Poll watching is fun, even if you realize that Obama has already won.
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 04:09 PM
Oct 2012

I enjoy it because I like trying to predict the final EV count.

carolinayellowdog

(3,247 posts)
9. Nate plus the Princeton Election Consortium equals confidence
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 04:12 PM
Oct 2012

Right as Nate has always proven to be, a second opinion always helps. Equally respected statisticians coming up with 93/98%probabilities today helps ease poll worries.

Grammy23

(5,810 posts)
11. I think there is a lot of worrying here for so many reasons and the polls are just one of them.
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 04:34 PM
Oct 2012

Another common fear for some is that the election is being set up to be stolen. Some of us (I include myself in that group) believe that elections in the recent past have been stolen and that our system has been corrupted so that stealing can be done under our very noses.

We go to the polls to find some sign that the race is not close since the closer the race, the easier it is for them to pull off a steal. When they keep telling us it's a "horse race" to the end, we know that is code for.....the fix is in and keep watching to the bitter end.

Sometimes there is a lot of anxious poll watching when people do not fully understand that polls can be entertaining but looking at national polls can be a waste of time when trying to figure out who REALLY is ahead and who is struggling. Those who understand this just need to keep patiently trying to explain to the less informed, not criticizing them or mocking them. And I know from personal experience that explaining this can help ease a need to obsess over the national polls and to put more faith in Nate Silver or Sam Wang. Now when I hear the talking heads quote from national polls, I know that I should not get upset over those polls. And in fact, I almost completely disregard them. But it's easy to over look a post explaining things so it never hurts to repost or explain again what it all means.

We only have another week to go, so let's try to be civil to one another and to be patient. We are here to support one another, educate and find like minds. Sometimes we have challenges and differences to overcome but in the end, our goal is mainly to get Obama re-elected, not tear each other to ribbons. Hope we can stay united in our efforts and help each other and celebrate together next Tuesday night.

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