Winning Without Ohio 10/30 Update

[JiminyJominy]

I still think we win Ohio but apparently some of you are getting worked up over the new lying Romney ad about Jeep.

So let me put your mind at ease. Even if Romney were to lie his way to a win in that state (and assuming he wins Florida and NC as well) Obama still wins the election by taking:

Virginia (he's up there) + NH (also up there) + WI (up but close) + One of 3 among Iowa, CO, and NV. Its close but he's barely up in Iowa, he's up in Nevada, and its close or maybe a little behind in CO.

They key is holding on to the states he's already holding on in. Easiest path to re-election appears to be: VA, NH, WI, and NV.

Winning Virginia is HUGE and changes the entire complexion of the race Tuesday night. If Viriginia is called early for Obama, let the party begin.

[MADem]

1. VA? Really? By much? I'd love it, but I never count on them. nt

[DFW]

15. Don't count on VA, but don't count them out either

The population of northern VA is huge and very politcally active.

Macaca trying for his old seat was a mistake, too. There is a large non-white population in VA whose members remember all too well what Rolls-Ryan's wannabe-again Senator called them (a Macaque is a kind of monkey--it is used by French racists as an epithet, and Georgie Allen's French mother taught him well). Senator Macaca's presence on the ballot alone will remind every non-white (and a lot of good white folks as well) in VA of what that party stands for.

[MADem]

17. I lived there for a number of years, and was repped by Jim Moran in Congress.

I never gave up my MA residency even though I owned a house there, so I couldn't vote for the guy, but I'd see him around on the Hill and in town all the time.

I hope people remember Macaca man--but you never know.

[Dawgs]

2. See link.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021669687

[JiminyJominy]

3. Sorry Dawgs

Didn't see your thread.

[Dawgs]

5. No problem. As a poll and stats junkie I enjoy reading what others have to say. n/t

[Dawgs]

4. I would put Nevada ahead of Iowa and Virginia. Colorado is next, then Florida.

Doesn't matter though. He will win Ohio, plus all but maybe FL and CO.

[MFM008]

6. They will only call the safest states

the bluest blue, redest red. They wont call the swing states till G/d knows when.

[Alekei_Firebird]

7. VA may be the new OH, and that's terrible news for Romney

Every poll except for the outlying Rasmussen poll shows Obama with a consistent lead in OH.

VA, on the other hand, is truly a toss-up. If Romney can't hold VA, then it's game over.

[Renew Deal]

8. I agree about Virginia

If Obama wins Virginia, the election is likely over.

[Maximumnegro]

9. It IS over. He is already winning FL, so...

Buh Bye Mittens!

[TheZug]

10. Aren't we gonna win Ohio?

Other than Rasmussen, O's been consistently leading.

[BraKez2]

12. I would expect VA to be called before OH

Unless it is extremely close the polls close in VA at 7pm....Ohio's polls close at 7:30pm..So i would expect a call on VA before OH....I believe we are going to win VA, being a Virginian I am very optimistic and if Obama wins VA let the party begin...

see my thread about Goode taking votes from Romney
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251188272

BTW we are winning Ohio as well..

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

14. We have been ahead in VA +2 or more in the recent polls

nt

[WI_DEM]

13. Ohio will be won by Obama.

[cheezmaka]

16. Ohio will go BLUE...