GOTV in Louisiana (LA) 10/30/12, Dems lead Reps 3 to 2 in EV

[ffr]

~14.1% of registered voters (made a mistake yesterday and crossed KY with LA results. Sorry )

Democratic lead
~ 42,580 votes

Statewide early/mail numbers:
Democrats -- 141,468 or 50.5 percent (Dems to Reps only 58.9%)
Republican -- 98,887, or 35.3 percent (Dems to Reps only 41.1%)
Others -- 39,779, or 14.2 percent

GMU.EDU 2012 Election Statistics
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[freshwest]

1. Wow!

[Alekei_Firebird]

2. B-b-b--but... Gallup!

With their +22 in the Southern states and lack of cell phone surveys...

[theinquisitivechad]

3. I was just going to say, Gall-slop must be revising their "study" based on these great EV leads!

Right? Right?

[FBaggins]

5. It's actually consistent with their report.

This is about 20-25% better for republicans than in 2008.

[FBaggins]

4. Ummm... that's not a good thing.

The latest party affiliation data from the state says that there are 1.4 million registered Democrats to 800k registered republicans.

So if 141k democrats have voted already, we should expect just over 80k republican votes. Not more than 20% above that amount.

Also... we should have learned many years ago that a Democratic registered voter in the south does not equal a vote for the Democratic nominee for president.

Luckily... nobody is counting on a LA win.

[flowomo]

6. It points to another flaw in those EV stats generally...

Many southerners (and northers, for that matter) are still registered Dem but never vote Dem. The party affiliation of the EVoter tells us something, but not everything -- and the difference might be important in some states. Not Louisiana, however, because, as you say, that is a lost cause for presidential voting.

[BlueDemKev]

7. Nate Silver Gives Obama a 0% chance of winning Louisiana

And besides, a lot of those registered Democrats are DIXIECRATS.