PPP/KOS weekly poll tied up 49-49 Obama big lead with early voters

[WI_DEM]

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/25-28. Likely voters. MoE ±2.7% (10/18-21 results)


The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Obama 49 (48)
Romney 49 (48)

Even looking at the day to days, the race is stable. It's essentially tied in the swing states—50-49 Romney, Obama wins Blue states 55-42, while Romney wins Red states 57-40. Romney's bigger margin could theoretically lead him to win the popular vote while losing the electoral college vote. I wouldn't count on that to happen, however.
Of those who watched the last presidential debate, Obama won 49-39 (44-36 among independents), which gives Team Blue an objective 3-1 in the debates. Too bad the first one was so outsized in influence.

Of particular importance given the difficulty in getting base Democrats to the polls, Obama is winning 59-41 among those who have already voted (14 percent of sample), 54-42 among those who plan to vote early (18%), and 53-44 among those who plan to vote absentee (7%). Romney is winning those who expect to vote on Election Day 53-44 (62%).

It's almost as if there are two elections—the one before Election Day, and the one during.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/30/1152332/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Big-early-voting-lead-for-Obama-but-tied-nbsp-overall

[madguy]

1. ...tied in the swing states...

with Romney up by 1. I thought O was up a few points in the swing states. Hasn't that been the case all these months, and been what has given us hope when the Nat'l polling has shown rMoney up a bit? What is going on here? Wish Kos had commented on that fact!

[regnaD kciN]

2. The one worrying note in this poll...

Mittens up 50-49 in "swing states" -- wich goes against every state polling summary I've seen.

[andrewgr]

3. Worried about PA absentee ballots?

I'm a nervous wreck, and every bit of pro-Romney news I read makes me sick to my stomache.

Can someone reassure me about this:

http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/

[hrmjustin]

4. PA will go democratic. They just like to scare people into paying attention to them.

Welcome to DU.

[William769]

5. If your worried stop reading right wing trash and stick with Democratic websites!

You'll be much better off for it.

Republicans and their ilk do nothing but lie so why even listen to them?

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Read a lot of GOP.com, do ya?

Gawd, I wish they would try harder sometimes.



"For my first post, I will request clarification on this article from gop.com! That should work to depress the libtards while keeping me under super secret double undercover! Yeehaaaaaw!"

[andrewgr]

9. Not a troll

No, honestly I'm not a troll. I read Huffington Post, DailyKOS, and FiveThirtyEight, but I also read stuff from Republican sites (which I'll avoid posting URLs to for fear you'd think me even more a troll). It doesn't make sense to me to read Democrat-leaning sites without looking at Republican-leaning sites as well.

I sent out the URL to the NY Times Editorial about FEMA to about 40 people this morning, asking them to pass it along, in an effort to get it to go viral.

But I really am a nervous wreck. When Bush was re-elected, my wife and I looked into moving to Canada, but she's got Crohn's Disease and some other medical problems that made us ineligible to immigrate.

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. Yeah

whatevah, dude.

[bluesbassman]

8. Here's a reassuring thought: Stay off of GOP websites.

They tend to be partisan. Hang out here, you'll get all the news you want, and no need to hit the Alka-Seltzer!

Welcome to DU.

[MSMITH33156]

7. On swing states

there is one important question which I don't see the answer to here, which is what states do they count as swing states? If they are including Pennsylvania and Michigan, then that swing state number isn't good. If they aren't, then this portend an Obama landslide because Romney needs to do a whole lot better than simply splitting the swing states. He needs to basically win all of them. If they split them, Obama will get near 300 EVs.

[andrewgr]

12. Swing States

PA and MI are not considered swing states. That doesn't mean they can't flip-- see Indiana in 2008.

I've parsed the numbers every which way I can, and as I see it, if Obama wins either Ohio or Virginia and holds serve in the states that are considered "blue", he'll win; it's really hard to make a reasonable case otherwise.

On the other hand, if Romney wins OH and VA, then Obama has to have Florida. Again, not mathematically certain, but practically certain.

[MSMITH33156]

18. That wasn't my point

My point was that they have a number for swing states, with Romney up a point. Which states are they including in that? If they include MI and PA, then that Romney +1 number is bad. If it only includes what we consider the swing states, then that is a good number for Obama. They never defined what states they consider swing states for the purposes of Romney being ahead in swing states 50-49, so the number by itself is worthless. It doesn't matter what we consider swing states, it matters what the pollster included in that number.

[TroyD]

11. "given the difficulty in getting base Democrats to the polls"

What does this mean?

[andrewgr]

14. Dems at the polls

It's generally accepted that a higher % of Republicans vote than % of Democrats vote. That's one reason why in 2008 and 2012 the Obama campaign has made such an enormous effort to get people to vote early-- you've got many opportunities to get them to vote, instead of just one.

I assume the reason this is the case is that Republicans tend to be more affluent. This makes it easier for them to get off work, they don't need to worry about taking a bus to the polling station, etc. It is probably also the case that a higher % of Republicans come from families and neighborhoods where voting is normative.

[helpisontheway]

13. Romney ahead in swing states?

This should worry team Obama. All along they said that was their strength. They said they were up in swing states and Romney campaign was bluffing.

[Alekei_Firebird]

15. Not really

Perhaps Romney's opened up a lead in NC that offsets Obama's leads in states like NV and OH.

Romney has a much bigger hill to climb in the swing states than Obama does.

[Marsala]

17. They don't have to be ahead in the total of swing states, which includes Florida, Virginia, and NC

Also, the swing state subsample is a generally unreliable method of polling. A one point difference is meaningless.

[TheZug]

16. Is this trending O's way?

Wasn't he 2 points back in this poll a week ago?