2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumABC News/Wash Post - (Romney +1) again, but Obama at 50% Approval
ABC News/Wash Post - Romney +1
Romney - 49
Obama - 48
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President Obama Job Approval - Approve +1
Approve - 50
Disapprove - 49
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121029.html
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)A huge portion of the country, one this is overwhelmingly democratic, haven't been reachable since early yesterday. Why would they even bother?
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)National polls are all academic at this point.
I mean a rally in a high school gym with students and staff?
Oh my god he's toast.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Sort of like Farm Aid except in every way imaginable
anneboleyn
(5,611 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Could you please stop saying that?
Romney hasn't lost until he is put down officially on Election Night and Obama is declared elected.
Both Barack Obama & Michelle Obama have in fact said over the past month that it's possible Obama can lose this election if people take it for granted and don't come out to vote.
So there is a week left of work to do yet.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)wisteria
(19,581 posts)fugop
(1,828 posts)I mean, I'm not a big unskewer, but really. Was anyone answering pollsters on the phone in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast last night? Wish ABC/WashPo would break down where those surveyed were located.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)Would seem to me that national (and even state polls in the northeast/virginia) are useless right now with so many people out of power
fugop
(1,828 posts)Maybe this will help them hit the reset button and produce polls that suddenly make sense. "OOPS! In the two days we stopped, clearly EVERYTHING'S CHANGED!"
I was thinking the same thing.
More likely Gallup doesn't put out anymore polls, that way they can argue there was a sudden shift to Obama over the last week.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Because the likely voters look nothing like the people standing line for hours to vote early for the president in swing states.
ItsTheMediaStupid
(2,800 posts)Did not expect to come to the party.
Likely the same with all minorities.
I believe that when Sununu opened his pie hole and said, 'Colin Powell only endorsed Obama because he is black," it motivated a lot more than the GOP base.
1springhill
(63 posts)to explain how this thing could be tied. With all the lying, utter ridiculousness of Romney and the republican party; not to mention the improvement in the economy. What the hell is wrong with people?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)How did Bush get half the vote? (Even though he stole the election).
You could put a member of the KKK on the Republican ticket and millions of people will still vote for it. It's just the reality of the system we live in.
McCain & Palin still managed to get 46% of the vote in 2008 despite the fact that there had been 8 years of Bush, a collapsing economy and a choice for V.P. who wasn't qualified to be President.
wisteria
(19,581 posts)FailureToCommunicate
(14,014 posts)dennis4868
(9,774 posts)Who believe Romney's (and Fox News) lies.
wisteria
(19,581 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)We were all hunkered down here on the east coast and many lost power right away. Doesn't matter anyway. Most polls are simply bouncing around the margins of error right now. Even Rasmussen the last two days, though I expect them to say Romney plus 5 right before the election. Only Gallup is the real outlier.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Isn't Rasmussen likely to try and keep the numbers close in the National polls?
Would he want to risk losing his reputation as one of the best pollsters by being way off?
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Scott Rasmussen did not seem to care in 2010. So that is why I don't trust him to change his more conservative leaning voter ID model before election day. If the polling stays close, then I assume Romney is in bigger trouble because his polls skew so conservatively. I think Rasmussen went in full to support Romney. He probably did not feel so strongly toward McCain.
S_E_Fudd
(1,295 posts)They screen out the 5% of voters who indicate they probably will vote, but are not certain. Most of them are probably votes for the President...
Certainly makes the 1% difference meaningless...and probably puts Obama 2 or so points ahead in reality
budkin
(6,703 posts)What the hell is wrong with people?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)How did Bush get half the vote? (Even though he stole the election).
You could put a member of the KKK on the Republican ticket and millions of people will still vote for it. It's just the reality of the system we live in.
McCain & Palin still managed to get 46% of the vote in 2008 despite the fact that there had been 8 years of Bush, a collapsing economy and a choice for V.P. who wasn't qualified to be President.