I Dont Get Nate Silver He refuses To

[outsideworld]

Factor recent positive polls from pharos research because and I paraphrase 'he called them and they couldnt tell him their business model or where they are getting all their money from to do these live polls' so is not sure about them and hence wont include them in his averages


BUT GRAVIS COOK UP NUMBERS MARKETING IS LEGIT ????

I like nate but he needs to get it together. Either you exclude All suspicious polling firms or not.

[bluestateguy]

1. But he does count Grove Insight (correct me if I am wrong)

and their polls have been good for our side.

One of Pharos's polls for PA was a bit unnerving (Obama only +3 in PA).

[Maximumnegro]

4. Doesn't matter, Romney is toast anyway

Why are people still obsessing over these polls? Guys, Romney CAN NOT catch up in 7 days. CAN. NOT. DO. I. T.
At this point people are just showing how irrational they are. We shouldn't be thinking of IF Obama will win, by by HOW MUCH. 7 days. NV is a lock - sorry if reality is a problem for people but it is, NV is a lock. OH is a lock, again, sorry if 20 polls showing Obama ahead over the past 3 weeks is a problem for people, but it's done. That's it. That's all. The rest is gravy and mandate.

7 days.

Who here knows of any election where the pres. candidate had this across the board deficit and won in 7 days.

[BlueState]

11. Thank you!

This is what I've been trying to tell people since around the time of the final debate.

Many keep saying I am in a dream world blah, blah, blah. But a cold examination of the facts, as you have stated
shows a race that belongs to Obama. And while the popular vote is close and several swing states could go one
way or another. Obama has consistently polled ahead of Romney in Ohio. Even without Ohio he has several other
paths to electoral victory. Romney's path is far narrower and isn't coming together at this late stage.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. But what about the "Bradley Effect"?!

I'm still worried about that

[creeksneakers2]

2. Josh Marshall doesn't include pharos either

Because its an Internet poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Pharos Is A Traditional Pollster And Not An Internet One

Pharos Research Group did a live call poll of 761 likely voters in Nebraska from
October 26, 2012 through October 28, 2012. The breakdown was 365 men, 396
women, representing a 48%/52% split.


http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Nebraska.pdf

[creeksneakers2]

17. You are right

I double checked it and I misread the reason Josh Marshall doesn't include Pharos. His polling site says Pharos isn't included because of "editorial" but doesn't explain exactly why.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/pollsters/pharos-research-group

[Thrill]

3. Maybe he's letting guys like Scarborough get to him

[DFab420]

5. Right.. I'm sure he'll get right on taking your advice on how to run his polls right after he

listens to everyone else.

Nate Silver has it figured out, and it just seems to piss everyone off that he does...

[outsideworld]

6. Dont need him to take my advice

Just that gravis is a big joke

[southernyankeebelle]

8. Nate has his reasons and I will trust him on his decisions. He has been pretty good so far.

[cthulu2016]

9. Invalid Complaint

You cannot possibly argue that he should include a poll without knowing even what its claimed method is.

You can argue abut whether Gravis' claims of method are accurate (I'd vote probably not), which is another topic.

[aaaaaa5a]

10. I have never heard of Pharos polling until a few days ago.

We have seen several brand new pollsters that seem to come out of nowhere. Gravis and Pharos are just 2 examples.

[SoFlaJet]

12. I always get suspicious

when a new member joins up a few months before the election and starts in with right wing talking points-the ONLY reason all of the repubs HATE Nate Silver is because he's always right and the news for Mitt doesn't look too promising

[ejbr]

14. You don't get it? Well, I'll tell you why...

cuz he's "thin and effeminate"

[brooklynite]

15. So, create your own model...

...either you accept his methodology or you don't. The fact that you're unhappy because his score goes down, or doesn't go up a high as you like is irrelevant.

[TroyD]

16. Has Nate Silver included tonight's SurveyUSA poll for OHIO?

Has Nate updated his model for tonight, or is it coming out later?

[MuhkRahker]

18. WTF Nate WTF? How many of our messages did you IGNORE about Gravis Marketing?

These are similar to the responses I was hoping to see him make after the Gravis fraudster stuff came out here and he was among the first to be alerted.

A five-part series of tweets from his twitter just today:

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Really not sure that aggregators should be including "polls" from Pharos Research Group in their averages. (1/5)

538's @micahcohen called Pharos Research yesterday to ask some basic due diligence questions, like who their call center was. (2/5)

Pharos said they'd get back to us. And hasn't yet. It should be an easy question to answer. (3/5)

Also not clear that Pharos Research has a business model; where are they getting the money for all these live-call "polls"? (4/5)

Do I know Pharos "polls" are fake? No. But I don't know they're real, either. So not listing them until we get some straight answers. (5/5)


Again, WTF Nate?


Oh and for anyone who missed this amazing DU expose of Gravis Marketing and it's criminal founder Doug Kaplan:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1568200

[NCLefty]

19. Nate wouldn't matter so much if people didn't stop mentioning him.

He also admits his model may be flawed. It's not Nate that's the problem. He's trying to do statistical analysis.

I fear the left has set Mr. Silver up for either a crowning or a shame-walk, depending on whether his model is accurate or not this time.

[TeamPooka]

20. when Nate is wrong in an election cycle you get to have a problem...

but he hasn't been wrong yet.