Survey USA Poll of NC: Romney 50% Obama 45%

[WI_DEM]

SUSA had a good poll out tonight from Ohio (49-46 for Obama), but also have a not so good poll out for NC:

In North Carolina, Romney Poised to Come From Behind To Drag 15 Electoral Votes From Blue Column to Red: Early voters in North Carolina favor Barack Obama, who has a lead"banked" heading into the final week of campaigning, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. But: Election-Day voters will go for Mitt Romney in sufficient
numbers that it appears Romney will outperform Obama, 50% to 45%, when all votes are counted. Obama leads among those who have already voted, by mail or in person, but among voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Romney leads 2:1. All of Romney's advantage comes from men, where he leads by 9 points. The contest is tied among women. White voters 2:1 favor Romney. The
contest is close because African Americans vote 10:1 for Obama. Romney leads narrowly in greater Charlotte and in southern and Coastal NC. Romney leads decisively in greater Greensboro. Romney leads among the educated and the less educated.

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2012/10/30/11719832/1351636612-WRAL_News_poll_results.pdf

Looks like early voters are breaking 56-43 for Obama among those who have voted in person. I'm still not ready to write-off NC as if we can keep up our early voting and get new voters to the polls as well, we have a fighting chance.

***I will be interested in seeing PPP's new poll of NC this week when it comes out. PPP is based in NC and got their start polling the state.

[LisaL]

1. There was a couple recent polls showing us even in NC.

[abumbyanyothername]

2. I have high hopes for NC

but it is the last 15 of my 347 EVs for Obama. (The next ones to topple would be AZ.)

[Maximumnegro]

5. Rove just put down 2m in ads in NC

so they are worried.

[BraKez2]

3. Tied among women????

[Maximumnegro]

7. I know, right. Whatever.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

17. My Raleigh neighborhood is full of women R$ supporters...

they're Southern pro-war Baptists who hate gays and oppose choice. Remember, NC is the land of Virginia Foxx. Laugh away.

[Jackpine Radical]

4. Whose %$##@ stupid idea was it, anyway

to let white males have the vote?

[Alekei_Firebird]

6. I'll trade NC for OH!

Obama barely won NC in a landslide year in 2008, so it was always gonna be an uphill climb. Best thing to do is to keep fighting and distract the Romney campaign. If we can win there, then marvelous. If not, it was to be expected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. NC Had A 7% Republican Lean In 08

O won America by 7%. He won NC by .03%. He's probably winning NC if he's winning in a landslide which I don't rule out at this point.

[MyNameIsKhan]

13. 5pt loss in NC is about 300-400k votes

IMPOSSIBLE, this difference between Pres Obama and Romney is 1 pts. Ofcourse I see Obama winning by 50k votes.

[MyNameIsKhan]

9. Impossible 5 pt loss

If Pres obama looses it will be between 0.5pts. Today Pres Obama has 19.2% lead on Romney on early votes and my simulation says Pres Obama winning by 50k-100k votes. Yes NC is very close but 5 its is 200k votes loss, IMPOSSIBLE...

[LisaL]

11. There were at least 2 polls recently showing Obama and Romney even in NC.

[WI_DEM]

14. I'm sure it will be closer than 5-points in the end. Either a very narrow win for Obama or Romney

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Didn't McInsane Win NC 61-39 Among Those Who Voted On Election Day/nt

[LisaL]

16. But he still lost NC.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

18. By 14,000 votes. (n/t)

[LisaL]

19. Doesn't matter if its by one vote.

A loss is a loss.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

21. My point is that the 2008 election was extremely close.

Many DUers are convinced NC is "turning blue" and that it's a given for Obama this year. It's not.

[LisaL]

22. I don't think it's a given.

But at least a couple of very recent polls said it's evenly split right now.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

24. That's where I left off, so this R$ up by 5 seems unlikely. (n/t)

[Rosa Luxemburg]

10. WE need to get our voters to the polls on election day

drag them there

[WI_DEM]

12. The more we bank the more the campaign can concentrate on getting more voters on election day

[Thrill]

20. NC will be the surprise of the night

I think Pres Obama will win the state by 3-4 points. I think people also underestimate Gary Johnson here. I think he'll get at 1% of the vote

[WorseBeforeBetter]

23. Good point.

I forgot about Johnson.

[oswaldactedalone]

25. I could see Obama winning

by .3 points but not 3-4. Robme could win by that much. It's an uphill battle but the Obama campaign has fought the good fight in NC one way or the other.