I'm pretty sure Romney is the candidate Obama would like to face, not Newt.

[denem]

Last edited Sat Jan 21, 2012, 08:30 AM - Edit history (7)

Romney is particularly vulnerable in four areas.

1. His own record of creating unemployment as 'King of Bain'

2. The 15% taxpayer. More tax cuts anyone?

3. His religion. Most people dismiss this but I believe they are wrong.
The Church of Later Day Saints is toxic amongst many Evangelicals.
"Romney & Mormons are No More a Christian Than a Muslim is!"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002180223
An evangelical preacher doesn't push hot buttons like this unless
he is determined to keep a Mormon out of the White House
at any cost. They literally fought wars over this and
some of the massacres are remembered to this day.

4. Being a Moderate on social issues. It's not so much flip flopping:
The line of attack would be 'Mitt Romney agrees with the President'
If you have time to look at the video below, you can see how,
with a bit of tweaking, it could be a Democratic SuperPac ad;
i.e.- by presenting Mitt's past, by implication, as his current views.
Mitt would have to be able to say 'I don't agree with him any more'
Please explain?

Notwithstanding Citizens United, this election won't be won by
money spent on television ads, at least not on the national level,
it will depend on the ground game. Gingrich is capable of firing up
the troops. Mitt would be a total dud. So I say again,

Obama would like to face Mitt. Newt, a bit less.

Obama will win it, but Mitt would be the biggest loser.

[tabatha]

1. Mitt can be justifiably accused of lying.

Newt lies, but because he is not known as a flip-flopper, people may not believe he is.

Newt is smarter, and can respond with something that is completely wrong but sounds right, and cannot be debunked until after the debate, when the damage may be done.

[DJ13]

2. They're both easy opponents

You covered Romney's shortcomings, but Newt is vulnerable to suffering fits of rage when things go bad for him.

His ego is as big a handicap as Romney's shady business past.

[denem]

4. That's a logical argument. Palin fired up the troops. Newt can as well.

The one thing about Mitt is he can never fire up the activists needed for a good national ground game.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

3. yes.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Newt would eventually implode

He'd fire up the base, sure, but the moderates and indies would get scared off. My main concern about Romney is that moderates and indies might not look past his more moderate record as Governor of Massachusetts and believe that he would be more like that as POTUS and not realize that he's basically disavowed all of his more moderate and/or progressive positions of the past and moved far right in his bid to win the GOP nomination though it will probably be more difficult for Romney to move back towards the center during the GE because the Tea Party will be watching him like a hawk for any signs of "betrayal" or "moderation" and if they find any, that will just depress their enthusiasm more, so..............

[denem]

6. I agree, but I think Mitt is road kill from the get go,

Last edited Wed Jan 18, 2012, 12:39 AM - Edit history (1)

a real Party pooper.

[HopeHoops]

7. Newt has that red state ramble. No more brain cells, just the ramble.

They're all trash can fodder against Obama.

[denem]

8. Since when have brain cells been crucial for successful Republican candidates?

Newt's temperament is more of an issue but anyone's more sunny than Mitt.

[HopeHoops]

9. Shit. I don't think I was alive then. Kennedy was killed when I was six mo. old.

[denem]

10. Nixon was sharp, a bit too sharp for his own good.

He was the last non-establishment Republican president i think. You can argue about 'established' Reagan. reagan didn't become REAGAN until years into his presidency.

[HopeHoops]

11. Oh, you mean like the '84 debate when he was talking about driving down the coast w/Nancy?

THAT's how I define Reagan. I thought he was bad. Quayle was worse, and the shrub made Quayle look intelligent. The current clown car might just make the shrub look smart.

[denem]

12. No. His legacy is more retrospective - things remembered

like his Challenger "touch the face of God" speech , facing down Gorbachev - 'Tear down this Wall', the tax cuts (not the tax increases), the gradual recovery of the economy, and the 80s in general, including that jivey Back to the Future culture, the advents of the PC etc. Many people suffered, especially those with HIV/AIDS, but the winners write history, the dead are silent. By the time he left office he was REAGAN.

[HopeHoops]

17. Don't forget the "evil empire".

[denem]

19. What I remember is "the bombing will begin in five minutes"

I was half asleep with the radio on then sat bolt upright.

[HopeHoops]

20. To be fair, he didn't know he was on a live mic. But still...

...even to say that is beyond stupid on multiple levels. He was old enough to remember kids hiding under desks during drills (like that would make a fucking difference in the first place). That's just not a subject for someone responsible for the decision to even contemplate toying with.

[denem]

21. Indeed

Half asleep I recognized the voice, and the words, then Holy Shit! In that whole cold war period the nuclear nightmare was always lurking somewhere in my subconscious. Now I get the walking talking nightmares disguised as politicians and pundits on TV if I'm on the wrong channel.

[Moondog]

13. Concur.

In the highly unlikely event that the Amphibian can control his temper, he'd be a much tougher opponent. Unlike the other Repukes, he can actually think on his feet.

[denem]

14. Well Newt will still have to get his ground game together in a hurry.

Hillary never saw Obama's Super Tuesday coming. then found out, in the remaining states, that the Obama campaign was already fully operational, and had been for quite a while.

[flying rabbit]

15. Maybe both

on a Romney/Gingrich ticket. Newt can have the attack dog role(note to Newt: don't go an any long car rides with the Mittster),
but his ego might not allow him to be second fiddle.

[denem]

18. "don't go an any long car rides with the Mittster"

I think Palin's youngest was still in diapers.

[DCBob]

16. Romney is boring, bland, predictable and has a bunch of negatives.

I suspect the O campaign already has much of the battle plan in place.

[joshcryer]

22. I want Romney because he'll force Obama to have a policy shift to the left.

Newt is just crazy enough to just blow up, and he's highly unlikeable.

You do make a convincing argument, of course, but I'm not sure Newt would be better for the GOP than Romney.

[denem]

23. I think this time Ron Paul is going third party. = a double shift left

He's 75, if he wants to make more of an impact, it's his last time.

So Obama will also be confronted on

War / military adventurism
The Drugs War
Civil Liberties, Due Process.

It will be easy to smack Paul down on the other stuff, but if Paul concentrates on the issues he thinks Obama is vulnerable on, and are dear to his heart, the 'middle' of those issues may shift left as well.

Obama own polling will tell him forever wars and the drugs war are not popular amongst a lot of his target demographics.

That's my slender hope anyway.

[joshcryer]

24. Oh man, that would be a dream move.

I would love for that to happen, so hard!

[onenote]

25. I'm pretty sure he's not

Mitt remains the strongest candidate that the repubs have (which doesn't mean that he doesn't have a lot of negatives). Newt is unlikable, and the repub establishments hates him. Plus, what a lot of us view as Mitt's negatives are going to be positives for many voters who won't look beyond the fact that Mitt has a "business background" and not care what that really means. Newt has nothing like that to go on. Mitt pays only 15 percent in taxes? For a lot of folks, even those who are screwed by the current system, that makes him a hero who's figured out how to avoid paying taxes and, they hope, will lower their taxes too. They're dreaming, but they're going to believe what they want to believe.

But what I believe and you believe is pretty much besides the point. Mitt's going to be the nominee.

[1stlady]

26. Hmmm

I think Obama would rather face Newt, just look at the polls. Newt, always trails Obama in every poll, he's more polarizing than Mittens. I just hope Rupaul doesn't pull a Nader. The last thing we need is someone sucking up the youth vote over legal medical marijuana.

[cliffordu]

27. I dunno why he'd prefer one over the other....

Newt is a loser and a racist anus.

I dunno why he's dangerous.....

[Bobby S]

28. Rec

I agree.

[RZM]

29. Except Newt is vulnerable in about 12 areas

1) His personal life
2) His political life
3-12) He's Newt Gingrich

Romney might turn it into a contest. Newt would be the Republican Walter Mondale.

[denem]

31. Fritz was doing quite well until he said -

I'll tell you the truth, I will raise your taxes. Mondale was also the establishment candidate foisted onto an unenthusiastic base, rather like ... Mitt.

[DeathToTheOil]

30. K'd & R'd

I agree.

[leftynyc]

32. Respectively disagree

Concur on the weakness of Mitt but I can guarantee that the gender gap we see in every election will be even bigger (huge) if newt is the candidate. He'll remind every independent woman of an ex-husband or boyfriend who dumped them for a younger/prettier version. newt is incredibly weak with women.

[alwysdrunk]

33. Exactly this

Mitt may be weak but he isn't despised. You can't win without women and independents. I'm not so confident about an automatic Obama win. If Newt is the nominee then I would be.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

34. Mitt is most dangerous to O --

I can see more people holding their noses to vote for him than Newtie.

[leftynyc]

35. Agree, but

I don't think we've learned everything about his finances and what we already have found out this week (15% rate, off-shore accounts to avoid taxes) is starting to hurt him. Depending on how long this primary season goes on and how hard he, Newt and Paul kick eachother, Mitt could be an incredibly damaged candidate at the end of this.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

36. True, and at the end of the day --

it'll come down to who gets to the polls. How soft does O's support get vs. how fired up the other side is. I truly believe that the GOPers wrote off 2012 long ago and fully expect O to take it, short of some incredibly crazy circumstance. They have their eyes on 2016 -- Jeb, Rubio, Christie -- they all know 2016 is where the action is at for the GOPers.

[leftynyc]

38. I think you're right

That's why all the second stringers. I just noticed how appropriate your screen name is today

[Hell Hath No Fury]

39. I picked it in memory of the 2000 selection --

Hell Hath No Fury like a Voter scorned. Still seems (sadly) appropriate all these years later.

[Lil Missy]

37. I don't think Obama cares. Newt plays to the fringe bigots and nut bags,

but that won't work in the general.

[JoePhilly]

42. +1

[donco]

40. I think the repugs have

giving this national election up and are just wanting a warm body. That they have found…barely.

[hallowell]

41. depends

If Newt cannot rally conservatives in swing states its over. Newt will do well in states like South Carolina, not so sure about states like Colorado, Michigan etc.

[denem]

43. Well Newt is certainly bloodying Mitt along the way.

I wonder if Newt believes he can win the whole thing or just hates Mitts like many Republicans do?

[Quixote1818]

44. They are both flawed for different reasons but I think both suck equally

Romney would appeal to more in the middle but Newt will bring out the base more. Romney is the poster child for everything that is wrong with corruption in capitalism right now but Newt is the poster child for just being an untrustworthy ass hole who will bring out the Dem base big time.

[AtomicKitten]

45. I think Newt will be easier to beat. He will self-immolate.

[denem]

46. If he does not self immolate, somebody else will do it for him.

Just sayin'.